1. #1
    billyunl
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    NBA Monday.. 2-1 yesterday.. 80-47 YTD (63%) +59.9 units

    12- game winning streak ended yesterday, but the streak of profitable days continues.

    Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

    All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

    Any of the plays sitting at 3.5 ATS edge could become plays with shifts in public betting trends, so check back before game time to see if one of them made it as an official play.

    Plays:

    Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    If you’ve been following me for a while you’ll know that both of these teams defy logic and perform better on the road than they do at home, according to my power rankings. Since these teams share that trait, we gain a double advantage on the road team (Minnesota.) I rate the Suns 3 points better on the road than at home, and I rate the Timberwolves 5 points better on the road than at home. This gives us an advantage due to the obligatory, and universal, home court advantage that Vegas must incorporate into the line.

    These teams also have a match-up trait in common, they basically don’t have a [decent] back-up PG. The Timberwolves are going to have a lot of trouble against teams that have a good PG and a decent back-up, until Barea returns. Luckily the Suns must resort to Sebastian Telfair when Nash needs a rest. Telfair has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of (-11.6). So as long as the T-Wolves keep Ridnour on the court whenever Nash is out there, their PG situation will not hurt them and they can use their vastly superior front court to demolish the Suns.

    I think this line will hit +4 again and maybe even +4.5. We aren’t in danger of it dropping to +3 at this point, so hold off on this line.

    Referee assignments:


    • Derrick Stafford: 19-13 home team ATS record
    • Curtis Blair: 14-17 home team ATS record
    • Courtney Kirkland: 13-17 home team ATS record

  2. #2
    leetreaper
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    Nice write-up, gl.

  3. #3
    mp5070
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  4. #4
    mp5070
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    Wolves jumped to 3.5

  5. #5
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by mp5070 View Post
    Wolves jumped to 3.5
    I see it at +4 in most places.

  6. #6
    mp5070
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    Never mind up to +4....Take it?

  7. #7
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by mp5070 View Post
    Never mind up to +4....Take it?
    I did, Barea was upgraded from doubtful to questionable so +4 is good enough for me.

  8. #8
    DudleyDawson
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    Wolves win. gl

  9. #9
    billyunl
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    1-0 tonight +2.2 units. On a 15-1 NBA run.

  10. #10
    RL75
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    Nice going Billy. I didn't get to the game until it was down to 3.5 but still took it. Looking fwd to tomorrow.

  11. #11
    painter10
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    red hot man nice going thankssssssssss !

  12. #12
    billyunl
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    Taking Hawks +5.5 right now, because the line is showing signs of dropping.

  13. #13
    BallinWifNoSox
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    Thanks for the picks billy, is there anyway you could start one thread for your basketball picks?.... Thanks again for all of your detailed right ups and picks

  14. #14
    DudleyDawson
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    Taking Hawks +5.5 right now, because the line is showing signs of dropping.

  15. #15
    Speedy88
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    I like the Hawks pick. Denver is fade material right now. They are still trying to juggle their lineup with all the guys coming back from injury.

  16. #16
    mp5070
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  17. #17
    pacocn
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    Billy, nice run man, keep it going.

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