1. #1
    MJT1212
    ECU Pirates
    MJT1212's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-16-09
    Posts: 5,124
    Betpoints: 79

    3-3 on the night, yet another losing day



    from now on when I see everyone say a bets square I'm going to bet it...b/c its usually a winner

    on SBR square = winner

  2. #2
    Dtown13
    Dtown13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-17-11
    Posts: 305

    Quote Originally Posted by MJT1212 View Post


    from now on when I see everyone say a bets square I'm going to bet it...b/c its usually a winner on SBR square = winner
    Hey MJT1212 I hate to hear that you had another bad day. I got lucky and had a good night for a change. It didn't start off well with Wisconsin but then I did well with Denver, N TX the Bulls and the Bulls under which got me going. BC and Pitt got me but I took a chance on Duke in the 2nd half which was nice. I took a chance on a gut feeling and went against a lot of the people on the forum and took Vandy which also went well. I finished up late with AZ, Santa Clara and believe it or not I went the opposite direction of everyone again and took SF and the Clippers and the Clippers under. It's the first good night I've had in a week or so but I had to play very small due to the collapse in my bankroll. That kind of sucks but I did have a winning night so I can start building my bank again. We will see what tomorrow brings. GL tomorrow man. Hang in there it will turn around.

  3. #3
    Sumalia
    Sumalia's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 1376

    Thru experience I have found that betting many games a day hardly will make you profit.Try to handicap your games.First write down all the games and outcomes you are confident in,then look if there is value.Sift out the ones you find to be locks and have odds you consider profitable.Keep sifting out games based on how confident you are in them until you have the 1-3 outcomes you are most confident for this day's games.
    Play only those 1-3 games for the day and do the same thing next day.I personally(for now) play only one game a day-the one I'm most confident in.If you don't want to just gamble but to actually be reasonable and make constantly profit then there will be times when you will do no bets for the day, simply because you don't find any game that is lock or one that you are confident in.

    I used to bet every game where I thought I know who will win and was just going back and forth,wasting my time with no real profit over time.Now I have much more wins than loses when I concentrate on only one game a day and handicap everything myself.

    Betting only one game a day allows you to put more money on this one game instead of distributing the money thru 3-5-10 games.If you lose then you can place the same amount the next day on other game in the same method,as it will be tough to lose 2-3 times in a row if you know your sh*t.If you follow this strategy and still have no profit then betting on NBA is not for you.

  4. #4
    Dtown13
    Dtown13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-17-11
    Posts: 305

    Quote Originally Posted by Sumalia View Post
    Thru experience I have found that betting many games a day hardly will make you profit.Try to handicap your games.First write down all the games and outcomes you are confident in,then look if there is value.Sift out the ones you find to be locks and have odds you consider profitable.Keep sifting out games based on how confident you are in them until you have the 1-3 outcomes you are most confident for this day's games.
    Play only those 1-3 games for the day and do the same thing next day.I personally(for now) play only one game a day-the one I'm most confident in.If you don't want to just gamble but to actually be reasonable and make constantly profit then there will be times when you will do no bets for the day, simply because you don't find any game that is lock or one that you are confident in.

    I used to bet every game where I thought I know who will win and was just going back and forth,wasting my time with no real profit over time.Now I have much more wins than loses when I concentrate on only one game a day and handicap everything myself.

    Betting only one game a day allows you to put more money on this one game instead of distributing the money thru 3-5-10 games.If you lose then you can place the same amount the next day on other game in the same method,as it will be tough to lose 2-3 times in a row if you know your sh*t.If you follow this strategy and still have no profit then betting on NBA is not for you.
    Good info Sumalia. That's definitely my problem. I like so many plays. It might sound stupid but how did you learn to discipline yourself and narrow down the plays? Especially on Saturdays when there are so many games? I seem to build a small bank through the week and lose double or triple on Saturdays. I know that sounds ignorant but I'm new at it and am still trying to take in some of the knowledge on this site to improve. I would like to actually win something rather than continue to pay the man every couple of weeks.

  5. #5
    Sumalia
    Sumalia's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 1376

    I learned because I wasn't going anywhere in months.I was going +couple units one day,-couple units the next day.One day I was doubling my bankroll because I have hit let's say 6 of 7,the next day I lose 5 of 6 or 6 of 6 and make another deposit.Then I looked back in my plays couple months ago where almost everyday I was doubling my bankroll and I saw that I was picking just 1-2 games a night.Also you can see the most successful punters have one particular play for the night(for this forum BettingWizzards is such example).

    This also shows if you really understand the game or not.If you can't pick the right outcome of couple selected by YOU games then you are wasting your money.Even if you lose once in every three nights(one game in three) you still would be on profit.You will be down only if you go win:loss 1:1 or of course losses to be more than wins...but if that happens as I said it means that you are not good at handicapping NBA.

    To narrow your plays as I said you have to follow just a simple strategy.Look at the odds for the games that are gonna be played today.Choose the outcomes you see likely to happen and remove those with odds that are not profitable(juicy favorites are worthless in NBA because the difference between any two teams on any given day is not that big).From the remaining plays keep removing those that you have doubts about,when you consider their last couple games,records,injured players and everything you use to handicap games(the most important thing in betting is for you to understand the sport and to know what to look for when choosing one option over another).Then you theoretically will be left with 3-4-5 games and 5-6-7 outcomes(straight win,handicap,under over and whatever you bet on).From there on you have to analyze the remaining games and to listen to your inside voice.There will be small things that will sway you to choose one game over another.In the end of the day I don't have more than 2-3 games that I'm really confident in.If from those 2-3 games I can't choose just one then I will either risk and pick just one(no reason just choose one) or I will divide the amount of money I use for one play between those three and I will play the three.I still prefer to play only one though.
    I'll tell you one trick-if you start handicapping early and you are left with 2-3 games just let them be in your mind,don't choose any particular.You will see that in couple hours you will sway more towards one game than another.This will be the game to play.

  6. #6
    squid44
    squid44's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-13-10
    Posts: 353
    Betpoints: 282

    i'll chime in here for a hot sec- sumalia obviously speaks from experience. betting that many games a night wont get you anywhere fast- if you are an "action junkie" (which isnt a negative connotation btw), just put a very small amount of "fun money" on the games. then take a look at your most confident pick and bet some good cash on that. that way if you lose all your little bets, and win your big one, you still come out way ahead. for example, i play a 4 game teaser most nights so i can have a lot of action- say for a total of 5 or 10 dollars. then on the game i feel most confident on, outside of that teaser, i'll play that for 35 or 40. that way, you are playing about 1 play a game with the bulk of your money. in addition, there are a number of websites, just like this one, that offer a way to practice without using real money. you'll see overtime that 1) betting many games a night 2) betting teasers for big money all the time 3) taking parlays all the time 4) wagering more than 5% of your bankroll 6) chasing games ... these are all methods that are very challenging to become profitable overtime, and these experiences with practicing will help you learn that (some have to learn it for themselves!) anyways, i wish you the best of luck and hope i offered at least 1 piece of good advice. take care !

  7. #7
    Sumalia
    Sumalia's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 1376

    Good insight squid44

    I want to add to what you said.

    I find that if I put decent amount of money on my "lock" of the day it is even more exciting to watch this particular game and I don't feel like I want to wager on more games.When you wager on a lot of games you are constantly worried...the game you watch is going great for you,but 3 of your other 5 plays are going downhill...you check non-stop the results...you switch the channels/streams to see if your team is gonna come back...and you can't even watch one game thru and have fun...only worries.

    The concept of "fun money" is also good one.I use something similar-I put aside particular amount of my bankroll that I will use only for games that can be gamble.With those money I play only underdogs that I feel have good chance to win.So even if go 1:1 ratio win-loss I still have quite a profit because the odds are 2.00 and above.If I lose this amount then I will wait to make bigger profit from my "locks" before I try my luck with dogs again.

    Also as you said parlays in NBA will hurt you long term even if you hit some big ones.Your loss ratio will be x times bigger than your win ratio for sure and overtime you will either be on minus or you will have no profit unless you are some prodigy.
    Chasing loses also will hurt you...just wait for the next day and wager the same amount you lost on your most confident pick.
    I personally wager 1/3 of my bankroll on the game I bet.I know it is risky because it is quite possible to go 0-3 betting on NBA but I cash in every couple days so even If it happens to go 0-3 I can put some of the cash back in.The cool thing with betting that much is that you make money much faster and it is more exciting.
    Last edited by Sumalia; 02-17-12 at 11:15 AM.

  8. #8
    MJT1212
    ECU Pirates
    MJT1212's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-16-09
    Posts: 5,124
    Betpoints: 79

    Thanks guys this is all really good advice. I just read it all now as I was offline last night. I will try doing 3 plays MAX for a while until I can will myself to 1 a day. All the advice makes ALOT of sense and the things squid said (the 1-6 numbering of what NOT to do), I do all of that so thats another thing I will have to stop. I already realized two days ago parlays and teasers were No Good and stopped then but this is just more reinforcement to stay stopped. Also, I need to stop chasing losses and making stupid bets at the end of the night, that's a biggie for me. Thanks to all and I'll let you know how it turns out.

  9. #9
    freebetpicks
    freebetpicks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 31

    This is probably one of the most solid and intelligent discussions of this topic I have ever seen. Squid and Sumalia, you guys have hit the nail right on the head, and I think you describe situations that most of us have gone through in our gambling careers. (I am new to this board but not to gambling).

    I don't really have much to add, I dont think there is much to be added. Just wanted to give you props for a great discussion.

  10. #10
    freebetpicks
    freebetpicks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 31

    Actually, let me say this. Recently I have noticed a lot of "picker's elitism" on this forum. There seem to be quite a few individuals who really try to make it clear they are experts and not part of the "public". As such, they immediately criticize anyone who is on the same side as the public bettors. Don't listen to these guys. It may be true that the public is often wrong, but they are also frequently right.

    The last several nights I have been on games that were criticized as being square. i was on miami in milwaukee, and miami in indy, I was on the clippers last night. Do your own analyses, look at the stats/trends/facts.

  11. #11
    Sumalia
    Sumalia's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 1376

    Quote Originally Posted by freebetpicks View Post
    Actually, let me say this. Recently I have noticed a lot of "picker's elitism" on this forum. There seem to be quite a few individuals who really try to make it clear they are experts and not part of the "public". As such, they immediately criticize anyone who is on the same side as the public bettors. Don't listen to these guys. It may be true that the public is often wrong, but they are also frequently right.

    The last several nights I have been on games that were criticized as being square. i was on miami in milwaukee, and miami in indy, I was on the clippers last night. Do your own analyses, look at the stats/trends/facts.
    Hi freebetpicks.

    I was also on Miami(vs Indiana) straight win,Miami(vs Milwaukee) spread and Clippers(vs Portland) straight win. And I was following closely the threads where they were being dissed as squares.I didn't know by the time if these will come thru or not,but sure as hell I was confident in them and I was quite curious what the outcome would be.We all know by now...

    The problem with putting your money on square is that there is some juice on that pick.IMO you should ask yourself whether or not the juice is too much when compared with the confidence you have in the outcome and if the profit given a win would be satisfying. Just because the public is on certain team it doesn't mean that this team is going to lose.If game is 50:50 or 60:40 in terms of chances to win for the square,this makes it a "trap" as there is more risk than return.That's why on 50:50 or 60:40 game,punters prefer fading the public and betting on the dog(that's great way to use the "fun money" squid was talking about).And it also matters how big of a square a team is.Both Miami and Clippers were not that big of favorites for their games so the profit was pretty decent.

Top