[LUNT101]

I think this spread is pretty accurate. Indy has played well at home this season, but has hit a rough patch, losing 5 in a row. However, they have played some very solid teams (outside of Cleveland last night), and are desperate for a win. The Nets come into Indy at 8-22, and are just what the Pacers need to get back on track. I think 3 or 4 weeks ago you see this spread at about 11 or 12, so I will be taking the 8.5.

New Jersey has played a bit better offensively over the last few weeks, but their defense is the worst in the NBA, bar none, most notiably being dead last in opponents 3pt %, allowing 39.5% (!) (on the flip side, IND is #9 in 3pt %). I can see Hibbert having a big game due to the lack of size and physical toughness in the middle for NJ, who are also 3rd worst in the league at allowing offensive rebounds. When Marreese Speights goes for 20 & 18 against you, you know you have issues inside. The Pacers losing Danny Granger should not have that much of an effect against this D....West, George & Collison are all playing well, and guys like Dahntay Jones and Psycho T are efficient if nothing else.

The real difference here will be the defense of the Pacers, who rank 8th in the league in defensive efficiency, and 9th in generating turnovers. The only way NJ has a chance to keep this close is to move the ball and hit 3s, because they won't be able to challenge the Pacers front line. Indiana is 7th in opponent assist % and 12th in opponent 3 pt %. That's enough to limit the damage on the outside. The Nets play at the 7th slowest pace in the NBA and don't get out in transition much, which will benefit the Pacers half court defensive sets.

The Nets are on the tail end of a b2b, and their starters played heavy minutes last night.

Although the Pacers are on the 3rd game of a b2b2b, the starters have not played many minutes in the 1st two games:
Hibbert - avg. 31 min
West - avg. 25.5 min
Collison - avg. 31 min
George - avg. 29.5 min

98-85 Pacers

[SMyC23]

Still Like the Pacers even with Danny Granger likely not playing?

[kj8210]

I like your analysis but the spread was too high for me so i just went with the under at 193.5. BOL to us both!

[LUNT101]

Still Like the Pacers even with Danny Granger likely not playing?

The Pacer offense should work inside-out tonight, pressuring the NJ front line. Granger is frustratingly inefficient with his jump shots, and I don't see why a guy like Paul George can't give 80-90% of his production in a more efficient manner.

[panik]

The spread is too high for a team on a decline. I played it safe and went +9on Nets

[LUNT101]

That's where we differ I guess. I don't think Indy is on a decline, I think it's a rough patch against some good teams that they don't match up well with. They aren't as good as people thought earlier in the season (and for the record I never bought into them being amazing having gone to IU and watching them nightly), but they aren't as bad as people on this forum are making them out to be now. So far haven't seen one Indy backer on here and to be honest I don't mind that at all.

[LUNT101]

Other things to consider:

Nets have lost 7 straight games
Indy is 8-1 ATS vs Nets since 2009

[rdkjglsk]

team sucks without granger, period. already burned me twice in the past week. they looked awful. nets have been playing some of their best basketball of the year. nets +8.5, is the play today. for sure

[panik]

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[M.W.]

Nice write-up. Sounds good.

[LUNT101]

Granger playing. Didn't need him but can't hurt.