[cleaveland]

In order to see what the line should be in this case we can compare recent lines with these teams because their power ratings shouldn't have changed too much since the last times they played (we'll assume that back to backs on the road add 2.5 points to the favorite because that's the historical average):

Jan. 29th, Lakers@T-Wolves, T-Wolves were 2 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the game would have been about a pick under normal circumstances). That means that on a neutral court the Lakers would be about 3 point favorites under normal circumstances.

Feb. 10th, Lakers@Knicks, The Lakers were 4.5 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the spread would have been about Lakers -7 under normal circumstances). That means the Lakers would be about 10 point favorites on a neutral court under normal circumstances.

The above means that if we're going to be consistent, on a neutral court the T-Wolves would be about 7 point favorites v. the Knicks current lineup under normal circumstances.

Therefore, T-Wolves +7 on a neutral court + 3 point standard home court advantage + 2.5 points for the Knicks being on a back to back on the road would mean the T-Wolves should be about 12.5 point favorites for this game. I was expecting about 10 personally, but this is the definition of a trap line.

Now let's see what happens.

[hangtime]

linsanity moving lines.

[thrill]

If Im not mistaken, the Wolves are playing their 4th game in 5 nights

[cleaveland]

linsanity moving lines.

The line started at -7 according to vegasinsider, it was a big time trappy line before it hit the market.

[Speedy88]

Line seems about right. No way are the wolves 10 point favorites. Ask yourself when the last time the Wolves were double digit faves. Probably not since the KG days.

[hawley]

Line seems about right. No way are the wolves 10 point favorites. Ask yourself when the last time the Wolves were double digit faves. Probably not since the KG days.

exactly, very rarely this season should the Wolves be big favs, let alone 10 point favs.

[cleaveland]

exactly, very rarely this season should the Wolves be big favs, let alone 10 point favs.

According to the power ratings they should be. For example, the T-Wolves were 8.5 point favorites against the Pistons earlier in the season and the Pistons team they faced (at full strength) is much much more talented on paper than this Knicks team. This Knicks right now might be as bad as the Bobcats are right now on paper but games aren't played on paper, thus this type of trappy line comes around from time to time.

Remember when the Wiz were 7 point favorites and no one could believe it? They blew out the Bobcats.

[cleaveland]

For those who think I'm way off in my analysis please read this article for insight into how lines are made, it's based on a combination of power rankings and opinions but the lines don't stray as far away from the power ratings as we're seeing in this case without a very good reason, I'm sure about that:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/colum...9&sportCat=ncb

[Bones33]

interesting...have you done any more research into this...like looking for differences in power ratings and spreads and seeing how well those games fair?

[cleaveland]

interesting...have you done any more research into this...like looking for differences in power ratings and spreads and seeing how well those games fair?

I've been tracking this stuff informally for years and when you see a line like this it usually loses in my experience. This kind of spread shows that the books/oddsmakers want the money on the T-Wolves and they're experts at what they do, they rarely make mistakes.

[Kalibongo]

Are you gonna take the Wolves?

[cleaveland]

Are you gonna take the Wolves?

Why would I do that? I know you've posted that you've faded Lin the last two games, are you gonna go for the trifecta?

[YOUSENKO]

Fade lin lol. They won 4 in a row and now are massive underdogs.

[takeunder]

I think Vegas is expecting public to take the Knicks after they took out the Lakers and Lin had a 39 point game...I believe that is why the line is slightly off...also for the record, the Lakers opened at -3 last night and Twolves opened at -1 when they played LAL....

[cleaveland]

I think Vegas is expecting public to take the Knicks after they took out the Lakers and Lin had a 39 point game...I believe that is why the line is slightly off...also for the record, the Lakers opened at -3 last night and Twolves opened at -1 when they played LAL....

I don't know where you got that info in bold, according to vegasinsider the Lakers opened at -5. Even if you go by the numbers you're posting, this is line isn't slightly off, it's stay off by 3.5 points or so assuming normal home court advantage and normal back to back on the road disadvantage.

[Kalibongo]

Why would I do that? I know you've posted that you've faded Lin the last two games, are you gonna go for the trifecta?

Only faded him once against the pathetic Wiz.

[cleaveland]

Only faded him once against the pathetic Wiz.

Actually, I've faded him twice. I took Wizards 1st quarter and Lakers 1st quarter expecting the Lakers to at least show up to start the game.

Actually, what the Lakers did, imho, was a perfect plan for throwing a game, I've done this myself like when I've played sports with my wife...

Give the other team a nice lead to start a game and then start playing for real so it looks realistic but be sure to never actually come back to take the lead, that assures that you'll lose but no one will suspect anything odd (after the first few minutes of the game). Come to think of it, I think I've seen this happen in the NBA before such as when a team wanted to throw a game for playoff positioning, but never in a spot like this. This was truly shocking to me.

Still, this is huge business and Lin is worth big money for the entire league including the Lakers...

[GoBlue77]

In order to see what the line should be in this case we can compare recent lines with these teams because their power ratings shouldn't have changed too much since the last times they played (we'll assume that back to backs on the road add 2.5 points to the favorite because that's the historical average):

Jan. 29th, Lakers@T-Wolves, T-Wolves were 2 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the game would have been about a pick under normal circumstances). That means that on a neutral court the Lakers would be about 3 point favorites on a neutral court under normal circumstances.

Feb. 10th, Lakers@Knicks, The Lakers were 4.5 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the spread would have been about Lakers -7 under normal circumstances). That means the Lakers would be about 10 point favorites on a neutral court under normal circumstances.

The above means that if we're going to be consistent, on a neutral court the T-Wolves would be about 7 point favorites v. the Knicks current lineup under normal circumstances.

Therefore, T-Wolves + 6 on a neutral court + 3 point standard home court advantage + 2.5 points for the Knicks being on a back to back on the road would mean the T-Wolves should be about 12.5 point favorites for this game. I was expecting about 10 personally, but this is the definition of a trap line.

Now let's see what happens.

12 point favorites lol. you clearly have no idea what you are talking about, leave the spreads to the big boys mmm kay.

[the sink]

My ratings has the wolves as 15point favorites so -12.5 would be a big trap!!!

[cleaveland]

12 point favorites lol. you clearly have no idea what you are talking about, leave the spreads to the big boys mmm kay.

The math is right in front of you. I am leaving it to the big boys because I'm using their numbers/ratings to figure this out. You're acting like 12.5 is my opinion but I was just using their methodology, I expected something around 10.

In order to figure out the oddsmaker's rating system we have to compare lines like this, I don't think my logic is flawed here. If it is, please show me the error of my ways.

[cleaveland]

My ratings has the wolves as 15point favorites so -12.5 would be a big trap!!!

The Knicks only have three guys in the rotation from the last game who are above average in player efficiency rating right now (Chandler and Lin are well above average, Novak is about average and the rest are well below average). They're about as weak as any NBA team right now statistically unless Lin just keeps carrying them. Most serious cappers aren't going to expect that I think but the market clearly is. Thus, you get a line like this imho.

[migz]

Line back to -6.5. I'm taking the Wolves here. Letdown spot after beating the Lakeshit.

[M.W.]

In order to see what the line should be in this case we can compare recent lines with these teams because their power ratings shouldn't have changed too much since the last times they played (we'll assume that back to backs on the road add 2.5 points to the favorite because that's the historical average):

Jan. 29th, Lakers@T-Wolves, T-Wolves were 2 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the game would have been about a pick under normal circumstances). That means that on a neutral court the Lakers would be about 3 point favorites under normal circumstances.

Feb. 10th, Lakers@Knicks, The Lakers were 4.5 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the spread would have been about Lakers -7 under normal circumstances). That means the Lakers would be about 10 point favorites on a neutral court under normal circumstances.

The above means that if we're going to be consistent, on a neutral court the T-Wolves would be about 7 point favorites v. the Knicks current lineup under normal circumstances.

Therefore, T-Wolves +7 on a neutral court + 3 point standard home court advantage + 2.5 points for the Knicks being on a back to back on the road would mean the T-Wolves should be about 12.5 point favorites for this game. I was expecting about 10 personally, but this is the definition of a trap line.

Now let's see what happens.

The Lakers weren't 4.5-point favorites last night. They were 3-point favorites when the line opened, which is what's relevant when you're talking about how the oddsmakers are setting lines, and being on the 2nd of a B2B is worth about a point or 1.5, not 2.5. So you're off by 2.5 or 3 points in your calculations. Then, throw in the fact that the NYK are a huge public team, and you have your explanation for the line.

[M.W.]

I don't know where you got that info in bold

I got the opener of -3 by watching my sportsbooks. I jumped on NYK +3 when it opened.

The Knicks are a huge public team, and they've covered seven straight. You don't expect some adjustment for those facts?

[Elad]

My ratings has the wolves as 15point favorites so -12.5 would be a big trap!!!

[cleaveland]

The Lakers weren't 4.5-point favorites last night. They were 3-point favorites when the line opened, which is what's relevant when you're talking about how the oddsmakers are setting lines, and being on the 2nd of a B2B is worth about a point or 1.5, not 2.5. So you're off by 2.5 or 3 points in your calculations. Then, throw in the fact that the NYK are a huge public team, and you have your explanation for the line.

Vegasinsider showed the line opened at -5 and was cut to -3 very early. This Knicks-T-Wolves line is so far off that even given what you're saying we're still off by at least 3 points here. I don't agree with you anyway when you claim that line movement after the open doesn't matter because linesmakers consider public betting/opinion before they release lines, read the article I posed in this thread.

[cleaveland]

I got the opener of -3 by watching my sportsbooks. I jumped on NYK +3 when it opened.

The Knicks are a huge public team, and they've covered seven straight. You don't expect some adjustment for those facts?

Vegasinsider seems to get the earliest info on lines, they used to report the openers directly from LVSC, if we had that info we could really be accurate on this. Come to think of it, if you look at vegasinsider's methodology they're absolutely the best to check for openers because all major Vegas books and all major online sportsbooks report to them and they report the first info they get as the opener. That's as accurate as it can be without getting info directly from LVSC like they used to.

Of course I expect some adjustment for what you're saying but comparing this line to yesterday's line against the Lakers and considering what I posted, this is still a big trap line.

Even if the Knicks win this game outright those who don't want to believe traps exist will ignore it, there's no point in arguing. Please believe what you want.

[M.W.]

Who's the public on tonight? Here's a site that shows 90% on the Knicks:

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/de...aspx?sport=nba

Some trap!

[cleaveland]

To everyone who keeps saying "The Lakers opened -3 at New York", I took -4.5 as the line for the game because I assumed it was the oddsmakers who moved the line. That's a perfectly valid assumption when you consider lines seemingly happen everyday where 80%-90% of the bets are one team and they don't move or you even get RLM.

Assuming that it's the oddsmakers moving the line rather the public is just as valid as the opposite and if they're changing their lines it's a perfectly fine assumption to assume that they're adjusting their ratings which from their point of view may be the only valid reason to change lines anyway.

When you consider all the lines that get pounded and don't move or even have RLM why would we assume that the market ever moves the lines?

That's my thinking on that.

[cleaveland]

Who's the public on tonight? Here's a site that shows 90% on the Knicks:

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/de...aspx?sport=nba

Some trap!

1. How do you know you can trust those numbers? There's no auditing this stuff.

2. Percentage of bets means nothing when you consider it takes 100 $100 bettors to equal one ten thousand dollar bettor.

I don't even look at % of bets for that reason. From what I've read, you can bet $100,000 in Vegas on an NBA side. A few of those bets and it could take the entire amount bet on the internet to offset all that. Who cares about the public % even if you could trust it?

[M.W.]

I don't know that I can trust those numbers, but a lot of people around here do trust them, so I thought I'd mention it.

[Full-Grown]

In order to see what the line should be in this case we can compare recent lines with these teams because their power ratings shouldn't have changed too much since the last times they played (we'll assume that back to backs on the road add 2.5 points to the favorite because that's the historical average):

Jan. 29th, Lakers@T-Wolves, T-Wolves were 2 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the game would have been about a pick under normal circumstances). That means that on a neutral court the Lakers would be about 3 point favorites under normal circumstances.

Feb. 10th, Lakers@Knicks, The Lakers were 4.5 point favorites with the Lakers on a back to back on the road (so the spread would have been about Lakers -7 under normal circumstances). That means the Lakers would be about 10 point favorites on a neutral court under normal circumstances.

The above means that if we're going to be consistent, on a neutral court the T-Wolves would be about 7 point favorites v. the Knicks current lineup under normal circumstances.

Therefore, T-Wolves +7 on a neutral court + 3 point standard home court advantage + 2.5 points for the Knicks being on a back to back on the road would mean the T-Wolves should be about 12.5 point favorites for this game. I was expecting about 10 personally, but this is the definition of a trap line.

Now let's see what happens.

This is ridiculous. Why in the hell would T-Wolves ever be a 12.5 point favorite or a 10 point favorite over a Knicks team that has won 4 in a row? They wouldn't be 10 point favorites over the Knicks if the Knicks lost 7 in a row. If anything this is a trap to bet the Knicks. They know the public is going to jump all over the Knicks which they have. Get your head examined.

[cleaveland]

This is ridiculous. Why in the hell would T-Wolves ever be a 12.5 point favorite or a 10 point favorite over a Knicks team that has won 4 in a row? They wouldn't be 10 point favorites over the Knicks if the Knicks lost 7 in a row. If anything this is a trap to bet the Knicks. They know the public is going to jump all over the Knicks which they have. Get your head examined.

In the original post I laid more or less how lines are made with the addition of expert opinion (which obviously can't be simulated), read the article I posted in this thread about it.

The Knicks won, this was a trap line as I called it. There was one HUGE FACTOR I forgot to check...

This game was broadcast on national TV in China, if I knew that I would have said Knicks were a near lock.

Damn, you have not only consider national TV games in the US in your capping but in the other countries as well, it's almost too much.

[xayjtu]

I'd like to know how the game being broadcast in China affects the game...

[cleaveland]

I'd like to know how the game being broadcast in China affects the game...

I didn't watch it and I don't know who the refs were and I don't know if they favored the Knicks but logically the NBA would want Lin to win this game which means the refs would be given their orders, I would have expected that. I haven't even looked at the box score or anything so I don't know if it happened.

And I know basically everyone around here ignores Donaghy but in my mind his playoff run of picking winners a few years ago conclusively proved his point, he was telling the truth about the NBA fixing games and such. I would never believe otherwise after that display.