DAL @ NY (1st Half): DAL -1, 1 unit L
DAL @ NY (2nd Half): U 91.5, 1 unit L ORL @ MIA (2nd half): U 94, 1.5 unitsP CHA @ IND (1st Half): IND -6, 1.5 units W
Adding:
BOS @ DET (2nd Half): DET +6, 1 unit
LAL @ PHX (1st Half) PHX +1.5, 1 unit
Wherever globally this missive is being read...Good morning...Good afternoon...Good evening. Let's see which games today, February 20, look stake-worthy:
1st Half Pick 1 ATL @ CHI: ATL +6, 1 unit
The possibility of CHI’s Rose not being 100% (if he plays at all), closes the pt gap in my opinion. ATL hasn’t had good success against superior opponents, but CHI plays less than superior in games they’ve played in the afternoon going 1-4 this season.
1st Half Pick 2 ORL @ MIL: MIL +1, 1.5 units
This will be the third meeting between these two teams in 10 days. In the previous two meetings, MIL was ahead at the half. Why then is ORL -1 midway? I believe its because ORL has been branded a “public team,” which may obscure the fact that MIL has a better team scoring avg. Coming off an emotional loss to MIA, ORL may not live up to their fav billing today.
1st Half Pick 3 NO @ OKC: OKC -6, 1 unit
NO’s victory over NY a few days ago was probably more about NY losing focus than anything else. NO’s leading scorer, J. Jack, played poorly in that game and doesn’t appear injury-free. Now, will OKC take NO seriously? OKC played a grueling OT game vs. DEN yesterday, sweating out a victory to a 12-1 home record. OKC has the better home/away 1st half scoring avg by about 10 pts. With NO’s Jack not looking good, I’ll take a chance with the Thunder not to lose focus the same way NY did.
1st Half Pick 4 MEM @ HOU: HOU -1.5, 1.5 units
Though MEM has a better than .500 overall record, it is a less than stellar team when “away.” Conversely, HOU is 12-4 at home, and holds an 8 pt advantage when taking into consideration the HOU-home vs. MEM-away 1st half team scoring avgs.
Last edited by pixster; 02-20-12 at 02:13 PM.
Reason: typo
BOS @ DAL (1st Half): DAL -5.5 2.5 units
So I figure that if DET can manhandle BOS, so will DAL, esp with BOS's current problems. Going a little higher on the units to try and make up for some ground.
With the possibility of Garnett being out also (joining Rondo), BOS will be without two of their more prolific players. Thus, I'm going to add... BOS @ DAL (1st Half): U 90.5, 1.5 units
Picks looking pretty good at half time, probably end the cappin' here for the night. Update comin' up in a few minutes. Curious, anybody trail? Anybody fade? Anybody care?
Always want to end on a positive "note," and fortunately that has been the case. As the All-Star break approaches, here's hoping for more good pickin' vibes.
UPDATE
1st Half ATL @ CHI: ATL +6, 1 unit L
ORL @ MIL: MIL +1, 1.5 units P NO @ OKC: OKC -6, 1 unit W
MEM @ HOU: HOU -1.5, 1.5 units W
BOS @ DAL: DAL -5.5 2.5 units W
BOS @ DAL: U 90.5, 1.5 units W
2nd Half
ATL @ CHI: O 88.5, 1.5 units L
ATL @ CHI: ATL +1, 1.5 units W
Tonight's Tally: 5-2-1 69%
Overall NBA 22-11-2, +10 units 66%
Last edited by pixster; 02-20-12 at 09:18 PM.
Reason: typo
2.21.12 1st half Pick 1 NO @ IND: NO +6, 1.5 units
When it comes to 1st half ppg, NO is ranked 22nd. However, IND is ranked 21st, only one slot higher than NO. Couple in the fact that IND has lost six of seven to NO, well then the +6 that NO is getting looks darn good to me. Not to mention that in NO's last four of five games, they were leading at the half – to some worthy opponents I might add.
1st half Pick 2 DET @ CLE: U 96, 1 unit
96 seems high for two teams that avg 88 pts at the half. Also, CLE has been shooting poorly as of late (under 40 percent). Meanwhile, DET has been improved defensively, but has only avg’d 40 pts. per 1st half for the season.
1st Half Pick 3 SAC @ MIA: MIA -7.5, 1.5 units
Oddsmakers are expecting a high scoring 1st half, 103 pts. Is it because MIA's defense will allow SAC to keep up offensively, or is it because MIA will go off on SAC like they have been vs. other teams recently? What's more likely given the way these two teams have played lately? SAC is on its fifth game of a long losing road trip, now looking at an MIA team they've lost six in a row to (the last three by an avg of 17.8 points). Unless MIA implodes, the Heat should cover by at least 8. Its a lot more logical than going with SAC +7.7, and more exciting than going with MIA ML.
Last edited by pixster; 02-21-12 at 03:27 PM.
Reason: typo
SAC @ MIA (2nd Half): U 100, 1 unit
2nd half avgs put this game at under 100. Granted, these teams are scoring higher than usual, but can they keep it up.
1st Half Pick 1 DET @ TOR: DET +2, 2.5 units
DET lost a close one to CLE yesterday. The Pistons were actually leading at the half, and they were leading at the half in a game a few days before that, too. DET has been avg’ing an impressive 55 ppg in their last three games, while TOR has been at the 45.7 mark in the same span. TOR’s “home” 1st half pt avg is 44; DET has scored at least 45 by halftime eight games in a row now. Tipping the scale more in DET’s favor tonight is that TOR will be playing without their leading scorer, Bargnani, who alone accts for more than 25% of TOR's scoring per game.
Last edited by pixster; 02-22-12 at 01:21 PM.
Reason: typo
1st Half Pick 2 BOS @ OKC: OKC -5, 1.5 units
In the last three games, OKC has been avg'ing a whooping 57 pts per 1st half, highest in the NBA this week. BOS, on the other hand, has been scoring....(pause, clearing of throat)...37 pts per 1st half (lowest in the NBA this week). That's a 20 freakin' pt difference, my friends! Some college teams can score better than that. The only reason why I'm not making this a higher unit bet is because of what happened in the SAC/MIA game yesterday. MIA softened up, and SAC took advantage and gave the Heat a scare. There's a small chance OKC may suffer the same consequences, as the Thunder may be looking ahead to their next game against the Lakers tomorrow. But with all of BOS's troubles slash injuries, I have to conclude that OKC will win this game's 1st half battle by at least 3 measly baskets. C'mon, man!
1st Half Pick 3 NO @ CLE: NO +3, 1.5 units CLE is fav'd by 3 at the half. But the stats - plain as day - want to tell another story. Let's take a quick look...
Pts Allowed full game (season): CLE 24th, NO 11th
Games leading at half (last five games): CLE 2*, NO 4
*Of those, CLE was leading by only 1 pt.
Avg pts at half (season): CLE 44.8, NO 45.8
Avg pts at half (last three games): CLE 44, NO 45.7
Summary...CLE is a slow starting team vs. NO which tends to start fast. CLE 's numbers improve dramatically during the second half, while NO's drop off. But this is a first half pick, and NO has shown that it has a capable offense/defense when starting off games. Lean: CLE might make for a good 2nd half pick based on how much they'll be fav'd.
BL
Last edited by pixster; 02-22-12 at 07:07 PM.
Reason: typo: meant to say "CLE" instead of "CHI" for the lean
Regarding that lean (which I meant to say CLE in the previous post)... NO @ CLE (2nd Half): CLE -5, 1.5 units
The pick strategy worked to cash NO in the first half. Now, if the 2nd half stats tells us anything its that CLE will come to life. CLE ranks 5th in 2nd half scoring while NO is dead last (30th).
Last few days have been topsy-turvy, as in wild and cardiac crazy. That's what happens, I suppose, in the games approaching - and immediately following - the All-Star break. Wish I'd have the time to do more write-ups, but I hope the ones I've provided have been beneficial. Update coming up shortly.
Update for 02.22.12 1st Half DET @ TOR: DET +2, 2.5 units L BOS @ OKC: OKC -5, 1.5 units W NO @ CLE: NO +3, 1.5 units W LAL @ DAL: DAL -2.5, 2 units L
2nd Half
NO @ CLE: CLE -5, 1.5 unitsL LAL @ DAL: O 90.5, 4 unitsW
1st Half LAL @ OKC: 2 picks
Pick 1) O 99.5, 1.5 units
Pick 2) OKC -3.5, 1 unit
The Thunder is to the NBA what the Patriots are to the NFL: a high-ranking offense, a low-rankng defense. Second only to MIA in ppg on the season, OKC holds the #1 spot on the week. Meanwhile, the Lakers offense hasn't been all that prolific, especially on the road. But they have been playing with a bit more intensity lately. Now the specifics...OKC has been avg'ing 62 1st half pts the last three games. LAL has been at the 47 mark in the same time frame. I don't expect OKC's scoring prowess to wane in this game as I think they'll handle a spirited but unrested Laker team.
1st Half ORL @ ATL: 2 picks
Pick 1) U 88.5 2 units
Pick 2) ATL +2, 1 unit
These two teams come into this matchup hobbled. ATL this week has the dubious distinction of being the worst 1st half scoring NBA team. The Hawks have managed only 36.3 pts per first half this past week vs. ORL's 46. So why is ORL fav'd by only 2? Because despite it all, the Hawks have historically done well against ORL. Both teams still boast top 10 defenses, which probably explains the low current 88.5 pt o/u line.
Last edited by pixster; 02-23-12 at 04:57 PM.
Reason: Typo, formatting, grammar
1st Half NY @ MIA: U 102, 1.5 units
I gotta go with the U. MIA avgs 54 per 1st half, NY avgs 48, the sum of which is 102. Boom! That's why the o/u is stuck at 102. Because of the national interest in this game, I think there will be some impetus on defense from both squads, esp MIA as they won't want a repeat of their performance against SAC a few days ago.
Last edited by pixster; 02-23-12 at 05:58 PM.
Reason: typo
1st Half SAS @ DEN: 0 102, 1 unit
So long as the SAS coach doesn't do something unexpected (and lame) as to rest his star players like he did the last game (which probably cost me a chance at that game's 1st half pick), this game should be a free for all. Both teams score notoriously high (within the NBA's top 5: DEN is #2, SAS is #5). It also helps that DEN is almost last in pts allowed, so I expect SAS to do their part in a mile-high shootout.
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any 2h leans?
L
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