[TBsp75]

there's a formula for soccer total goals, it's pretty simple and it's hittin 55%-60% which is quiet nice and it looks like this.

(avg. home goal + avg. home goal against + avg. away goal + avg. away goal against) / 2

normally u get a no. close to 2.5. and if its over 2.5 u bet on game total 3 goals and over, if its under 2.5 u bet on unders. just wonderin has any tried the similar formula in nba?

(avg. home points for + avg. home points against + avg. away points for + avg. away points against) / 2

and compare the totals to what the books offer and see what to bet on.

[balls2wall]

I have a NBA spreadsheet that I do each day that has a million different things on it. This is one of the things I have on it. I have a formula that automatically spits out the numbers each day when I paste the lines.


Give or take a day or so (I know I skipped Monday since there were only 2 games and it was not worth my time and I didn't feel like it) I have been tracking this since 1-21-12.

Since 1-21-12 it is 69-59-0 (54%).

That is just comparing the number to the lines I have on my spreadsheet which are basically early lines from wesex. I use wesex because they work nicely with my spreadsheet. Once I copy and paste all of the lines I don't change them. So they are not necessarily the opening lines nor the closing lines. I know that is not a perfect way to track things, but that is the way I do my daily spreadsheet. They are usually pretty close to the opening lines.

If it is .5 over or under the lines then that is how it is graded. IOW, line = 185 and formula says 185.5 then it is an over play.

[TBsp75]

Since 1-21-12 it is 69-59-0 (54%).

That is just comparing the number to the lines I have on my spreadsheet which are basically early lines from wesex. I use wesex because they work nicely with my spreadsheet. Once I copy and paste all of the lines I don't change them. So they are not necessarily the opening lines nor the closing lines. I know that is not a perfect way to track things, but that is the way I do my daily spreadsheet. They are usually pretty close to the opening lines.

If it is .5 over or under the lines then that is how it is graded. IOW, line = 185 and formula says 185.5 then it is an over play.

thanks man. it really helps. in ur ex. 185 and 185.5 thr's a 0.5 point difference. do you know/think u can adjust your bet size on the point difference? higher the point differnce = higher the edge?

[balls2wall]

thanks man. it really helps. in ur ex. 185 and 185.5 thr's a 0.5 point difference. do you know/think u can adjust your bet size on the point difference? higher the point differnce = higher the edge?

I am not betting these at all.


I just have a bunch of different things that I am tracking. For instance I am tracking whether the public wins each game, whether the RLM plays win each game, if the line moves in the right direction for each game etc...

I am tracking some other formulas that I use involving power ratings, SOS etc... as well.


If I were using this "formula" to place bets I think I would have to have more than a half point difference. I haven't paid enough attention to know what the number would be though. Also, over the short time I have been tracking it doesn't look to be hitting high enough for me to just blindly play them. I would use it as just one more piece of info to look at when capping a game.

[balls2wall]

If I were using this "formula" to place bets I think I would have to have more than a half point difference.

I said that, but without breaking down the results that may not be accurate. The 1/2 pt differences may be doing as well or better than the bigger differences.

I only have so much time to do this stuff so I am not as thorough as I should be in breaking stuff down.

[bassfish]

Have you ever tried to run hockey O/U numbers. Hockey being more like soccer than basketball. I ran last nights scores and found some interesting stats.

[TBsp75]

Have you ever tried to run hockey O/U numbers. Hockey being more like soccer than basketball. I ran last nights scores and found some interesting stats.

great idea. i'll check it out.
never a hockey fan bt never 2 late to become 1

[TBsp75]

I am not betting these at all.

haha u track so many stuff how come u dun bet on them? u track other sports as well?