[Speedy88]

There is no way the books could make this line without expecting to get a heavy amount on OKC. Unless they make the line around OKC -5, they are going to get at least 70-75% on OKC. My guess is that close to 80% will be on OKC tomorrow. OKC is just one of those teams that the public love no matter what.

Right now GS is at +2.5. GS is a tough team to play after playing the night before. Not to mention OKC had to go into OT against Portland.

OKC at -2.5 is definitely a square play. I get a feeling that this game will likely go to OKC -2 before it goes to OKC -3. But just because it is square doesn't mean it won't hit. The last time these two teams met OKC was -4.5 and covered. Game was close for about 3 quarter, and then GS compltely unraveled in the 4th quarter.

Once again, why do I find myself backing GS so much. I'm undecided, but I have a feeling I'll be making a play on GS tomorrow.

Lets discuss this one. What does everyone think here. GS +2.5 anyone?

[PS3]

I got GSW +6 from my local bookie.

[Speedy88]

I got GSW +6 from my local bookie.

robbery. your bookie must be from oklahoma or something.

[Elad]

I got GSW +6 from my local bookie.

what about the odds? +6 = 1.50 +-


For the game,Speedy you say the right thing, "But just because it is square doesn't mean it won't hit".
Except the fact that they are B2B&after OT,I can not find a reason why to go against them,but lets see the lines movement and decide later,good luck man.

[PS3]

Gsw +6 -111

[Elad]

Gsw +6 -111

Take this and dont look back...

[PS3]

Take this and dont look back...

That's what I did.

[Speedy88]

Greek is juicing up the warriors at -115 as well.

[CHAZ]

Hoping it goes back up atleast to 3 before I decide

[Speedy88]

This line isn't moving up anymore

[ToPHeR]

[Speedy88]

OKC is about as square as it gets.

Books made this line knowing close to 80% would be on OKC. Not to mention the line has moved from OKC -3 to OKC -2 with 78% on OKC. RLM.

[BettingWizard]

GS is my fav play of the year

[LeagueCapper]

OKC is about as square as it gets.

Books made this line knowing close to 80% would be on OKC. Not to mention the line has moved from OKC -3 to OKC -2 with 78% on OKC. RLM.

Books usually are okay with 80% of the public being on the right side as long as the other 20% is the sharps on the other side. A lot of times books put a line to trick sharps into betting the other side. GS still has noone that can rebound the ball which will always hurt them late in the fourth. I like thunder here

[YouHave2outs]

GS is my fav play of the year

holy fk i already had multi units on this? are you being serious, i may go huge

[Speedy88]

Books usually are okay with 80% of the public being on the right side as long as the other 20% is the sharps on the other side. A lot of times books put a line to trick sharps into betting the other side. GS still has noone that can rebound the ball which will always hurt them late in the fourth. I like thunder here

Let me get this straight. Books are okay with getting buried on a game as long as the sharps lose? So they are okay with handing out money to 80% of the squares as long as they can take money from 20% of sharps? I don't buy that.

[Speedy88]

GS is my fav play of the year

[YouHave2outs]

Books usually are okay with 80% of the public being on the right side as long as the other 20% is the sharps on the other side. A lot of times books put a line to trick sharps into betting the other side. GS still has noone that can rebound the ball which will always hurt them late in the fourth. I like thunder here

sharps do not blind bet the other side because the public is on one side. get real. sharps handicap games

[Yezzir]

GS is my fav play of the year

Wow!

ML too?

[innovation]

Thunder are very good against the 3ball and thats really what alows GS to win the games they do.

GS relies on 24% of their points from downtown. OKC is ranked 4th in opponents 3 point %.

The area OKC is vulnerable is inside the paint and I am not sold GS can exploit this area.

Books will be ok especially if it goes under.

[LeagueCapper]

Let me get this straight. Books are okay with getting buried on a game as long as the sharps lose? So they are okay with handing out money to 80% of the squares as long as they can take money from 20% of sharps? I don't buy that.

You obviously read it wrong. 80% only entails the amount of bets. If 80% of the public is on the Thunder and 20% are on the Warriors and the line goes from +3 to +2 that means more money is on the Warriors. How would they get buried if the Thunder won?

[LeagueCapper]

sharps do not blind bet the other side because the public is on one side. get real. sharps handicap games

I never said they did

[Speedy88]

You obviously read it wrong. 80% only entails the amount of bets. If 80% of the public is on the Thunder and 20% are on the Warriors and the line goes from +3 to +2 that means more money is on the Warriors. How would they get buried if the Thunder won?

There is no way that 20% can outweight 80%. Unless bill gates was one of the 20% and laid down heavy money. I just don't see that as possible. 4X as many bets on OKC than GS, I just don't believe that the GS money can outweigh the OKC money.

Last week someone brought up this same point, and I and everyone else said this same thing.

[BigDofBA]

Let me get this straight. Books are okay with getting buried on a game as long as the sharps lose? So they are okay with handing out money to 80% of the squares as long as they can take money from 20% of sharps? I don't buy that.

80% of the bets doesn't mean 80% of the money. Sharps bet more so the 20% of sharp money might be close to the 80% of the public money.

Anyway, I think the Warriora could win by double digits. OKC cares more about beating Portland than they will about Golden State. Classic let down spot on a long road trip.

I made a thread telling people to take the Clippers +2 against OKC a few weeks ago. Your typical squares called me crazy and loaded up on OKC. LA won by double digits. The same thing applies here.

It's going to be very tough for OKC to win tonight IMO.

[LeagueCapper]

There is no way that 20% can outweight 80%. Unless bill gates was one of the 20% and laid down heavy money. I just don't see that as possible. 4X as many bets on OKC than GS, I just don't believe that the GS money can outweigh the OKC money.

Of course it can. Public doesn't bet big

[YouHave2outs]

biggest bet of year for me on golden state. only 220, i don't bet huge. but i will be rooting hard. gl everyone who is on them

[Speedy88]

Of course it can. Public doesn't bet big

It can happen, but HIGHLY unlikely. I mean anything can happen. But the chances of it are small. Very small. I'm not an expert on this, so maybe someone else can chime in. But I'd say the chances are under 5% that the GS money outweighs the OKC money.

EDIT: Not to mention 81% is on OKC ML. No way GS money outweighs OKC money between the 78% on OKC spread and 81% on OKC ML.

[innovation]

Ask yourself this. Would you be playing GS if the line opened at -4 and moved to -4.5 or -5?

The books have done their job.

[Yezzir]

Speedy, you going ML or spread.

I'm thinking big on spread, small on ML.

[Yezzir]

Ask yourself this. Would you be playing GS if the line opened at -4 and moved to -4.5 or -5?

The books have done their job.

That could work both ways.. the joe public loving the fact that the spread is lower for OKC, thus less risk for them, if they're confident of an OKC win.

[LeagueCapper]

It can happen, but HIGHLY unlikely. I mean anything can happen. But the chances of it are small. Very small. I'm not an expert on this, so maybe someone else can chime in. But I'd say the chances are under 5% that the GS money outweighs the OKC money.

HIGHLY unlikely? Its happening right now. There's no other reason that the line would drop from +3 to +2 (bar injuries) unless more money was coming in on the Warriors. For one to think Vegas would get buried if the Thunder won today is looking at things completely the wrong way

[Speedy88]

Speedy, you going ML or spread.

I'm thinking big on spread, small on ML.

Spread, little ML, and probably a 1Q or a 1H bet. GS is definitely a better 1H team than they are a 2H team. But I think they have fixed their 2H problems. They haven't unraveled in the 2H since that Memphis game.

[Speedy88]

HIGHLY unlikely? Its happening right now. There's no other reason that the line would drop from +3 to +2 (bar injuries) unless more money was coming in on the Warriors. For one to think Vegas would get buried if the Thunder won today is looking at things completely the wrong way

Because they want to pull even more of the public onto OKC. OKC is in a really bad spot here.

And second of all, one NBA game is not going to "bury" Vegas. Not even the superbowl can "bury" Vegas. They know they'll get that money back eventually from those betters who won. But Vegas likes to play sides just like we do.

[BigDofBA]

Ask yourself this. Would you be playing GS if the line opened at -4 and moved to -4.5 or -5?

The books have done their job.

You're right. Savy bettors will take GSW and the public will take OKC.

A lot of people are only taking GSW bc of the line. If it was -4, they wouldn't but they will at -2. Lol.

[carmeloso80]

I will be on Golden st. tonight.

Note: I was on portland last night and got robbed, hoping this does not happen again tonight.