1. #1
    ugabooga
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    -400+ Experiment. $100 to $1000 in ten plays

    Pretty basic really... Bet $100 and keep rolling over the winnings. After 10 consecutive wins, the bank should be around $1000. I'll predominantly be betting on ML but my book does also offer +10.5 points which I'll use in the right spots.

    For my first 3 plays I'll play the odds and only look at records. After that I'll put a little more time into my selections. I'll make 5 attempts and if I don't get to 10, I'll go back to capping as normal (YTD: 15-9).

    Just a bit of fun, so no need to tell me how much of a loser I am

    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 1
    OKC ML to def Grizzlies
    $100 to win $23

    OKC are 8-1 at home (5-0 last 5)
    Their last 5 wins at home have been by 10, 20, 12, 12, 15 albeit against weaker teams.

    Memphis are 5-7 away (2-3 last 5)

    This season:
    12/28 - OKC def Memphis 98-95 (@ Memphis)
    1/10 - OKC def Memphis 100-95 (@ Memphis)

    I think Memphis does pose some threat but with OKC's home record and Memphis' away form, this should be a pretty comfortable 8-12 pt win.

    Memphis is averaging 86.7 points on the road. The Grizzlies have yet to score 100 points in a road game. The Thunder have won 23 of 25 at home - including 10 straight - when holding opponents under 100 point.

  2. #2
    Speedy88
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    Eventually one of these will screw you over and you'll say "I'm never betting ML's with juice over -250 again."

    But BOL.

  3. #3
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Eventually one of these will screw you over and you'll say "I'm never betting ML's with juice over -250 again."

    But BOL.
    Cheers bro. Yeah I know it's every possibility but I have seen this done on another board with some success. I've seen them get up to 20 bets but they start at $20 and don't bet on the NBA exclusively.

  4. #4
    burgi
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    Betting on ML could be as risky as betting on spreads or totals in the NBA. The return what counts dudes. I tried this method you are playing, with soccer picks, only home matches with 10-0 at home like stats. Screw that. You will probably hit 5 or more in a row, and one will knock you down, and the clown laughs again. This is my opinion, but best of luck to you.

  5. #5
    ugabooga
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    Thanks man. Soccer in my opinion is not suited to this type of system. The draw takes the value away from the win as it's a third possible result. Basketball, tennis and AFL (my local football) are the only sports I'll be betting on.

  6. #6
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 1
    OKC ML to def Grizzlies
    $100 to win $23
    Final Score: OKC 100 def Grizzlies 94
    Durant 36 and 7 in the last minute!

    Bank: $123

  7. #7
    ugabooga
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    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 2
    Gold Coast Blaze ML to def Wollongong Hawks (NBL)
    $123 to win $30.75

    Gold Coast are 6-3 at home. Wollongong are 2-4 away.

    This season:
    10/21 - Gold Coast 83 def Wollongong 58 (@ Wollongong)

  8. #8
    jubjub
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    Sorry dude, you could be in some trouble with the Blaze tonight. I'm from the GC and go to most Blaze games, and i tell ya, it's going to be a close one tonight. Blaze are always best to fade when they are raging hot favourites. Blaze still missing Harvey and Goulding will hurt their fire power. Perimeter D will be the key here, and I can see the likes of Campbell, Foreman, Chewy and Coneraad lighting it up from outside for the Hawks. Hawks are surging at the moment man, this team has nothing to lose as they can't make the finals, and they are playing with a new attitude and look like they are having fun. My tip is that Ubaka will smoke the Blaze tonight on his old stomping ground, definitely with a point to prove. Blaze may win, and I hope they do, but it will be mighty close. Taking the Blaze at such short odds, in my opinion, is way too risky, and tells me you are just trying to make a quick buck with this thread. The value is definitely with Hawks tonight. As a Blaze diehard I hope we smoke em' tonight, but I doubt it will happen. I'm not betting on this game personally because I never bet against my team, i've learnt from this mistake in the past.. Ain't too late to get on hawks +7.5 start brother cos that's where the value is at!

  9. #9
    ugabooga
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    Thanks for the info man and to be honest I don't follow the NBL as much as I used to because they no longer televise live games in Melbourne but I have read that both teams are on the improve and Ubaka is red hot. The thing I liked reading was that GC are playing good D now which traditionally they haven't.

    As I mentioned earlier my initial 3 plays won't be heavily researched and I'll be doing a quick flick through the numbers but will be playing the odds more often.

  10. #10
    jubjub
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    No worries. If you have any spare cash, put it on Hawks start. TAB offers a +10.5 start also. I'd be running with that.

  11. #11
    ugabooga
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    Yeah love the +10.5 market and will definitely use it in this thread at some stage. Hope the blaze can get the points, you've got me worried haha.

  12. #12
    jubjub
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    Hope i'm just a nervous supporter, and they kill them on the inside. Wortho is due for a massive game.

  13. #13
    H1Cypher
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    Will require Matrix-esque bullet dodging. But possible. Will you eventually bet a spread or a total if you really like it? How about going to NHL teams also?

    I just noticed you're doing australian soccer too.
    Last edited by H1Cypher; 02-04-12 at 02:00 AM.

  14. #14
    ugabooga
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    I don't think I'll bet a spread or total because as much as you like a play, you're still marginally 50% chance of being right (or just better).

    I'll be trying to avoid soccer because of the possible 3 results unless it's a big club at home like Barca, Madrid, United or City but even then I think tennis will be a better option.

    NHL i don't know a great deal about but generally speaking I thought they were baseball like odds? Due to the nature of the sport/amount of goals scored.

    PS. Love the Matrix-esque bullet dodging reference because that's exactly what it is

  15. #15
    H1Cypher
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    I don't think I'll bet a spread or total because as much as you like a play, you're still marginally 50% chance of being right (or just better).

    I'll be trying to avoid soccer because of the possible 3 results unless it's a big club at home like Barca, Madrid, United or City but even then I think tennis will be a better option.

    NHL i don't know a great deal about but generally speaking I thought they were baseball like odds? Due to the nature of the sport/amount of goals scored.

    PS. Love the Matrix-esque bullet dodging reference because that's exactly what it is
    Yep. Only was wondering NHL- I myself don't know alot of NHL. I just read around... look at stats(don't hold the stats so high)... and look for good spots to make bets. Maybe it is beginners luck but right now I'm up betting NHL and I've yet to watch a complete NHL game.

    I've been watching NBA for years and it is kicking my ass. Still new to betting sports in general.

    Have you given thought to simply chasing someone who is red hot, or are they all going to be your picks? Since you said they aren't going to be heavily researched.... you can just go with stuff that is factual(like someones record and them running hot) and take that into account. Rather than just doing quick flick bets with little research- maybe it might help to do quick flick bets on people running hot? Or do you think that would be too hard.

  16. #16
    ugabooga
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    Haha yeah NBA does that to you. Nah i can cap nba games myself (YTD 15-10 and that's after running cold) but I'm just trialling this type of system. When I cap NBA it takes so much of my time whereas with something like this generally speaking, the odds are there without having to research. What I will be doing is trying to avoid bad spots where the odds are obviously wrong and after 3-5 plays I will start putting some decent research in. Right now it's just me taking stats on face value, not really looking into forim, injuries, etc. SJ is the only person I've tailed blindly here but if I see a good write up I might throw a unit on there if the reasoning seems right.

    Are you capping your own games at the moment or looking for a system that works? I don't know if this is ideal for most but with my time constraints it could be my best bet.

  17. #17
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by jubjub View Post
    Hope i'm just a nervous supporter, and they kill them on the inside. Wortho is due for a massive game.
    Q1 - Worthington 11 points, 4 from 5, 2 steals

  18. #18
    H1Cypher
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    For NHL. I'm doing my own games. But it is mostly a chase system(or they are called labbys too right?).

    Guys I have followed for NHL are Bob Loblaw and his 3* picks. A couple other people randomly i would not recommend tailing unless you like the pick. I do like the 3* for loblaws NHL though.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-bet...totals-p5.html

    For NBA my problem is I'm capping too many games. For NHL I keep it to one or two games. in NBA I'll often go over 3 games daily.. too much I know.

  19. #19
    ugabooga
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    Thanks for the link man, checking it out now. I know your feel about capping too much nba... I'm almost at the stage where I have my initial lean then find supporting stats/trends then make the play. This type of all rolling profit system could be good for me because in the end if i bank once in 10 attemps its profitable and i still get the fun of having a bet and doing some research

  20. #20
    ugabooga
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    Half time: Gold Coast leading Wollongong 47-29

  21. #21
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 2
    Gold Coast Blaze ML to def Wollongong Hawks (NBL)
    $123 to win $30.75
    Final score: Gold Coast 91 def Wollongong 50
    Never in doubt

    Bank: $153.75

  22. #22
    ugabooga
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    Hope no one minds if I post a tennis play in between nights.

    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 3
    Berdych to def Kohlschreiber
    $153.75 to win $35.36

    Head to head: Berdych 7 - Kohlschreiber 1
    Hardcourt: Berdych 4 - Kohlschreiber 1
    2011: Berdych 2 - Kohlschreiber 0

    2011
    Berdych def Kohlschreiber 6-2, 6-0 (hard)
    Berdych def Kohlschreiber 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 (hard)

    Berdych in good form and could've easily beaten Nadal in the Aus Open. 3 setter suits.

  23. #23
    jubjub
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Final score: Gold Coast 91 def Wollongong 50
    Never in doubt

    Bank: $153.75
    Just finished watching the game. Blaze were absolute beasts on defense, very impressed. The only downer was letting the Hawks get to that 50 mark. If they keep that u they are definite title contenders.

    Nice win. GL with Berdych.

  24. #24
    SiMON2g
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    Interesting tactic, good luck.

  25. #25
    ugabooga
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    ^thanks brah

    Quote Originally Posted by jubjub View Post
    Just finished watching the game. Blaze were absolute beasts on defense, very impressed. The only downer was letting the Hawks get to that 50 mark. If they keep that u they are definite title contenders.

    Nice win. GL with Berdych.
    Haha yeah ridiculous scoreline in the end. Imagine what they could if they had a full list to choose from

  26. #26
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 3
    Berdych to def Kohlschreiber
    $153.75 to win $35.36
    Final score: Berdych def Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-4
    Berdych 1st serve points won 34/34 (100%)

    Bank: $189.11

  27. #27
    H1Cypher
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Final score: Berdych def Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-4
    Berdych 1st serve points won 34/34 (100%)

    Bank: $189.11
    I was so tempted to just bet 400 on berdych here. Couldn't push myself to do it- I have no luck with chalk. it laughs in my face as it runs away with my money. I did parlay him with Josh Koscheck though(ufc fight).

  28. #28
    ugabooga
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    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 4
    Temple to def Rhode Island (NCAA)
    $189.11 to win $47.28

    Temple are 8-4 away and 5-2 SU as road favourites.

    Rhode Island 2-9 at home and 1-7 SU as home dogs.

    Temple have won their last 5 games incl. their last 4 by double digits (ave. 18 pt). Similar to the OKC play, Rhode Island are a small threat here but on pure numbers this should be an 8-12 point win.

  29. #29
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by H1Cypher View Post
    I was so tempted to just bet 400 on berdych here. Couldn't push myself to do it- I have no luck with chalk. it laughs in my face as it runs away with my money. I did parlay him with Josh Koscheck though(ufc fight).


    GL with the parlay. I'm doing everything I can not to parlay haha. I know it will speed up the process but at the same time I'll stop being patient and waiting for the right play so it will inevitably cost me.

  30. #30
    H1Cypher
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    GL with the parlay. I'm doing everything I can not to parlay haha. I know it will speed up the process but at the same time I'll stop being patient and waiting for the right play so it will inevitably cost me.
    Something I'm pretty proud about 3 weeks before Rashad I started putting up a bunch of mini parlays. The most I bet was like 10 bucks a parlay- in the end I ended up with 42 parlays... with Rashad Evans as the lsast leg in all of them(-150 odds for him was a fuckin steal of the century, except for when Bisping fought Mayhem and Bispingn was -160.. that was a bigger steal). Ended up with like 42 parlays 170 to win about 450 dollars, did the same for Evan Dunham on the same event but on a smaller scale was like 80 to win 160ish. Imagine had I made the parlays bigger lol. I have screenshots for proof too. Would not recommend anyne else try it lol.
    Last edited by H1Cypher; 02-04-12 at 01:21 PM.

  31. #31
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by H1Cypher View Post
    Something I'm pretty proud about 3 weeks before Rashad I started putting up a bunch of mini parlays. The most I bet was like 10 bucks a parlay- in the end I ended up with 42 parlays... with Rashad Evans as the lsast leg in all of them(-150 odds for him was a fuckin steal of the century, except for when Bisping fought Mayhem and Bispingn was -160.. that was a bigger steal). Ended up with like 42 parlays 170 to win about 450 dollars, did the same for Evan Dunham on the same event but on a smaller scale was like 80 to win 160ish. Imagine had I made the parlays bigger lol. I have screenshots for proof too. Would not recommend anyne else try it lol.
    Haha no thanks not for me although I do occasionally put on a 10 leg parlay on for lols but i inevitably miss a leg or two. If you see any more big steals dont forget to post them up

  32. #32
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 4
    Temple to def Rhode Island (NCAA)
    $189.11 to win $47.28
    Final score: Temple 73 def Rhode Island 56
    Comfortable win. Temple lead for 8+ for the whole game

    Bank:
    $236.39

  33. #33
    ugabooga
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    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 5
    LA Clippers ML to def Washington Wizards
    $236.39 to win $59.10

    Clippers 3-4 away and 2-0 SU as road favourites.

    Wizards 3-9 home and 1-8 SU as home dogs (only win against OKC )

    Not too worried about LA's away record because the 4 losses have been against Spurs, Portland, Utah and Lakers. They're also 2-0 SU coming off a home loss. Again, Wizards do pose a small threat here but this is the nature of the beast so there will always be some type of risk taken.

  34. #34
    ugabooga
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    Half time: Clippers 58 lead wizards 34

  35. #35
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    ATTEMPT 1 - BET 5
    LA Clippers ML to def Washington Wizards
    $236.39 to win $59.10
    Final score: LA Clippers 107 def Wizards 81
    Griffin 21 pts, 11 rebounds, 8 assists in 31 minutes!

    Bank: $295.49

    Leaning GSW +10.5 point handicap v Kings in Sac-town for bet 6. Odds are -475.

    GSW are 2-3 for double digit road losses, Kings are 1-4 for double digit home wins. I actually think GS win this one SU. Do i pull the trigger?

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