Decided to start a thread to keep track of my picks. Been lurking around for a while, but time to man up and put my record to the test.
Hopefully this will keep me disciplined and popping out winners, or expose me as a total failure, lol. Don't expect followers, don't expect anyone to tail, but will always appreciate any insightful comments =).
Here it comes:
Tues, Jan 31
Hawks -4.5: risk 2.2 units to win 2 units
Got this line last night, sometimes it's best not to overthink it. Hawks trump the Raptors in just about every meaningful team statistic. They're a solid road team and a good defensive team. Meanwhile, Toronto with Bargs out has 0 players that create mismatches or creates offense for teammates. Sure Toronto can cover and people will scream trap, but I'd rather be on the other side of that bet. If this line keeps moving, I may try to middle as the Hawks sometimes let teams creep back in.
Nuggets -1: risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit Nuggets -1.5: risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Wish I had laid these bets down when Memphis was favored, before they pooped themselves last night. Denver's simply the better team, and that long Memphis win streak came against 6 sub-500 teams and the Bulls without Rose. Simply put, they're pretenders. Not a great schedule spot either, b2b off a long road trip. Denver will run and gun with them and take this game.
Knicks -9: Detroit playing 4 in 5 nights. Knicks should get Melo back and are rested. The -9 on Knicks is a lot, but Detroit is just a piss poor team. I think they'll get up for this one.
Kings/GS over 197.5: This was a heavy lean, but didn't want to lay the money since Mark Jackson is so unpredictable. But LTA making this a play makes this a tail for 1 unit.
OKC +2: 1.1 to win 1 unit
Going with the better team and the points here. OKC's still good on the road, and they have to be motivated at this point to avenge their losses in the playoffs and from earlier this year. Marion might bother Durant a bit, but Westy should completely manhandle the smaller Beaubois. As long as they keep their TOs to a reasonable level, they should pull this out.
And the Heat blow a massive lead against the Bucks, go figure =P. Bad idea betting on the god-awful Hornets, but good call on OKC. Still a profitable day 3-2, +0.8 units.
Hawks -4 (2 units): Pounced on this line immediately, expecting it to go up. The standard for home court is about 3.5 points. So the Hawks are only 0.5 points better than Memphis on a neutral field? They're much more efficient both offensively and defensively, defend the paint well (Memphis strength), and don't turn the ball over that much (negates Memphis fast breaks). Hawks aren't in any sort of fatigue scheduling, where as Memphis is in the middle of 4 games in 5 nights, while looking ahead to OKC tomorrow.
Jazz +4 (1 unit): Taking the better team and 4 points, AND betting against Mark Jackson. Yes please. Only thing that keeps this a 1 unit play is the uncertain status of a bunch of banged up players coming off the grueling loss against the Clippers tonight. Jazz are relentless inside and on the boards and the Warriors just can't match up.
Adding plays:
Blake Griffin Over 33 points + rebs (probably not great judgment, more of a recreational bet): 1 unit
Clippers/Nuggets Under 207.5: 1 unit
Clippers getting blown out completely kinda pooped on that Blake prop, as he was easily on pace to hit.
Fri Feb 3
Rockets -6.5: 1 unit
Rockets are great at home and the Suns are flat out bad. Rockets will dominate the boards and I see Nash being pestered by Lowry all game. Definitely one of the most underrated PGs in the league, both offensively and defensively. Rockets take this by double digits.
Jazz -2: 1 unit
Jazz are tough at home, and have enough big bodies to bang with Gasol and Bynum. This is more of a Lakers fade since they're coming off a hard fought win last night and they didn't get to the hotel until 4 am . They'll be tired for this one, while the Jazz have fresher legs. http://blog.lakers.com/lakers/2012/0...ckly-for-jazz/
76ers +3.5: 2 units Line says the 76ers and Hawks are equivalent after removing the 3.5 for home court. I think the 76ers are the better team and more importantly match up very well with the Hawks. The Hawks struggle when you can lock down Joe Johnson and Teague as none of their bigs can effectively create their own offense. Philly has arguably the best perimeter defense in the league led by Iggy. They'll get up for this game after being blown out by the Heat. Should be a close game and I'm taking the points.
Parlay (risk 1 unit to win 1.5 units): ML Blazers, Clippers, Pacers
I can't imagine a team led by CP3 would lose to the Wizard. Blazers are monstrous at home with Denver in a fatigue spot. Pacers are 6-1 at home, and with Big Baby suspended and Nelson still out, Orlando's bench has nothing. Indiana's deep bench playing against this the likes of Von Wafer and Earl Clark, yes please.
Hawks/76ers Under 179: 1 unit
Last time these guys played a defensive slug fest 90-76. I expect the same as both these teams are hyper athletic and full of long and quick defenders, but without any dominant play makers on offense.
Bobcats +9.5: 1 unit
Wanted it at double digits, but doesn't look like this will show before I have to head out. Basically fading the Suns, being such a large favorite. This is bad team vs bad(der) team, and I'll take the 9.5 points.
Sigh, woulda been a positive day if not for a phantom goaltending call on Aldridge. Gotta start avoiding Scott Foster games. covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101263691
Cavs +13: 2 units
Heat aren't usually in the business of covering really large spreads. They'll rest their guys if things get out of hand for the backdoor.
Thunder -2.5: 1 units
Thunder was -1.5 against the Blazers, but now only -2.5 against this team? I'll call the oddsmaker's bluff for 1 unit.
Tues Feb 7 Spurs +3.5: 1 unit
Hawes and Brand should be out. I see Pop having his team take advantage of this with his big guys inside. That being said, scary to bet against Philly at home, so only 1 unit.
Tues Feb 7 Nuggets -6: 1 unit
Expect the Nuggets to bounce back and win this by double digits. If George Karl can stop being retarded and put in Rudy as a starter (instead of Stone), then it'll be even better. Harrington and Miller off the bench is way more than enough.
Lakers +3.5: 1 unit
Nobody dislikes the Lakers more than I do (esp on the road), but think this is a really good spot for them. Celtics recent dominance reminds me of that Memphis 7 game win streak. Pretenders beating up a bunch of bad teams. This should be a hard-fought close game, and I'll take the 3.5.
Looking hard at OKC/Sac Over 1H, and Lakers/Celtics Under 2H...
Houston +4: 1 unit
Lowry confirmed to play. Fatigue shouldn't be as much of a factor since the Rocket starters barely played yesterday blowing out Portland.
Nuggets/Warriots: 1H Over 106.5
Bad defense, all offense. I'd rather bet the first half 106.5 than the full game at 211.5, as teams generally score a lot more in the first half.
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. They'll be tired for this one, while the Jazz have fresher legs.