[Welt446+]

I'm starting a thread for the plays that fall in this system. I'm not if I missed any so far, but I'll try to make an attempt at posting plays in this thread.

Here's last year's thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...10-2011-a.html

And here's the thread from the year before that: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-tracking.html

[YouHave2outs]

yes. i am down a few bucks this year in nba. can i bet you a large amount that you will not hit 70%? i'm a fish. take my bet

[Welt446+]

There's nothing for January 31st. The only team that qualifies math wise is Atlanta, but Al Horford is out.

[Welt446+]

yes. i am down a few bucks this year in nba. can i bet you a large amount that you will not hit 70%? i'm a fish. take my bet

hahaha...

It had a few good years but hit about 50% last year, so I will not be taking your bet

[Welt446+]

Nothing for Feb 2nd

[Bones33]

Good luck my friend!

[balls2wall]

yes. i am down a few bucks this year in nba. can i bet you a large amount that you will not hit 70%? i'm a fish. take my bet

The OP should explain the system in the first post!!!


With that being said, I don't think he is saying it will hit 70%. If it is the system I am thinking it is then the 70% has to do with a teams winning percentage and that goes into the math of picking the plays.

[Welt446+]

Here's the way I do it:

1) Take the team with the higher winning percentage and subtract it by the other team.

2) Multiply the result by 50

3) Subtract the spread

4) If the team with the higher winning percentage is at home add 3, if they are the away team subtract 3

5) If the result is higher equal to or higher than 10, play the favorite, if th result is -1 or less, play the dog

Filters:

-Don't play the first 20 games of the season
-Don't bet on a team who is playing back to back days
-Don't bet on a team who is missing a starter (wait three games for a return starter)
-Don't bet on a team who has a double digit spread placed on them

I think I covered everything

[Welt446+]

An example with the Timberwolves vs Nets game
The Wolves’s winning percentage is .455
The Nets winning percentage is .348
.455-.348= .107
.107*50=5.35
The spread is -4.5 so
5.35-4.5=.85
The Wolves are the away team so subtract 3
.85-3= -2.15
Nets qualify numerically but Okur is currently injured, so no play

[Welt446+]

Also, favorite teams do much better than dog plays so I typically skip the dog bets

[YouHave2outs]

Here's the way I do it: 1) Take the team with the higher winning percentage and subtract it by the other team. 2) Multiply the result by 50 3) Subtract the spread 4) If the team with the higher winning percentage is at home add 3, if they are the away team subtract 3 5) If the result is higher equal to or higher than 10, play the favorite, if th result is -1 or less, play the dog Filters: -Don't play the first 20 games of the season -Don't bet on a team who is playing back to back days -Don't bet on a team who is missing a starter (wait three games for a return starter) -Don't bet on a team who has a double digit spread placed on them I think I covered everything

have you backtested this system at all? refined it over time from a slightly different system you had at the start? what is the reason you think this will work? i'm always interested to see how these system bets play out.

edit just saw the threads from previous seasons. have you backtested beyond this before you started posting 2 seasons ago?

[Welt446+]

have you backtested this system at all? refined it over time from a slightly different system you had at the start? what is the reason you think this will work? i'm always interested to see how these system bets play out.

edit just saw the threads from previous seasons. have you backtested beyond this before you started posting 2 seasons ago?

I only started testing it for two seasons, but others have older logs.

[Welt446+]

Nothing for February 3rd

[Welt446+]

Nothing for February 4th

The Clippers would have qualified, but Butler just missed a game and has not been back for three games yet.

[Welt446+]

Good luck my friend!

Thanks

[Welt446+]

Nothing for February 5th

[Welt446+]

Looks like nothing for February 6th (pending the Kings vs. Hornets game spread)

The Bulls would have qualified but Deng missed a few games.

[Welt446+]

Kings vs Hornets doesn't have a play

No plays for February 7th. The Thunder would qualify if Sefolosha hadn't missed a handful of games.

[Ethan1122]

There is always injuries so good luck finding plays lol

[a4u2fear]

A thread about no plays, thanks for sharing

[Welt446+]

There aren't a lot of plays, but it tends to do well.It's quality over quantity.

[Welt446+]

Nothing for Feb. 9th

[nbafanatic2012]

The season is almost half way done...do u usually dump your whole roll on the one that does qualify>?

[Welt446+]

February 10th: Portland should qualify if they are at -6 or better - which isn't likely

[Welt446+]

This year is unusual. There are usually at least 14-20 plays a year. The lines have been placed pretty much exactly where they should be for every single game, which hasn't been true in previous years.

[Welt446+]

February 12th: Atlanta +4 qualifies as a fade pick. Fade picks don't usually perform as well as favorited teams who qualify so play small if you do.

[pjz03]

nice play sir..thank u

[Welt446+]

There is nothing for February 14th. However, the Spurs at -8 almost qualify (they would have qualified at -7) and they are probably worth a wager, though not a huge one.

[Welt446+]

February 19th: The Jazz qualify at +6 as a fade pick. The fade picks don't typically do that great so I'd play it small if at all.

I have to wait for other lines to determine other qualifiers.

[Welt446+]

Another filter I forgot: Wait for three games after the all star game

[Welt446+]

It looks like the Bucks qualify at +6 for a fade pick tomorrow. Fade picks don't do so well, so I wouldn't recommend it.