Indiana/ Golden State Over 188.5: Warrior games are beginning to look a little like last year as their last 6 games have averaged 208.7 ppg. In the last 5 games their offense has put up 102.6 ppg on a very nice 47.9 % shooting, while they have looked bad at the defensive end, allowing 104.6 ppg on 47.1% shooting over that stretch. The Warriors have averaged 94.7 ppg at home, but in their last 2 home games in regulation they have averaged 102.5 ppg and those 2 games were vs Miami and Orlando, which are 2 pretty good defensive teams. Indiana has not had great success at the offensive end this year (92.8 ppg), but this team does have scorers on their team and they should have an easier time tonight vs a GS defense that is beginning to look like the bad versions of years past. Indiana is a defensive minded team, as they are in the top 7 of every major defensive category, but I feel they will have a hard time slowing down the Warriors and their uptempo style tonight. The Over is 14-5 the last 19 in this series, with each of the last 10 between these two team putting up at least 202 points. I expect this one to eclipse 200 as well. KEY TRENDS--- INDIANA is 50-25 OVER in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996, while GOLDEN STATE is 20-5 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Denver -7 over WASHINGTON: The Nuggets have gone 12-5 ATS the last 17 in the series, while they have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings, with each one of those wins coming by double digits. Now Denver comes in playing some of the better ball in the league are they are facing the worst team in the league. Washington is off a shocking home win over a very good Thunder team, but they are still 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS on the year. Denver checks in at 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS on the year. The Nuggets have really had their offense cranking of late as they have averaged a healthy 109.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while for the year they are 2nd in scoring (104.8 ppg) and 2nd in FG% (28.3%). Washington has scored 100+ points in their last 2 games, but they have still averaged just 87.6 ppg on the year, while at home they have averaged just 91.5 ppg. Defense has been a problem for this team, especially of late as they have allowed 109.8 ppg in their last 4 games and that number doesn't figure to get much better vs the Nuggets tonight. This could be a flat spot for the Nuggets after their big win over Philly and now taking on the worst team in the league, but that win by the Wiz over the Thunder should have the attention of this Denver squad and they will come in fully focused. Washing has lost 10 of their 12 games by at least 8 points and that will continue tonight with a solid DD win by Denver here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less.
5 POINT TEASER--- Philadelphia -1 & Milwaukee +10.5
OTHER PLAYS 2 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Over 184: The Hawks realize that they need to play an uptempo game in order to use the athletic ability of their team. This team has plenty of scorers, but they don't play well in a halfcourt offense. Tonight they get to play a high scoring Philly team that does like to run. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ Detroit Under 180: MEMPHIS is 25-9 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals since 1996. Both offenses have been futile this year and I expect it continue tonight.
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