[cleaveland]

What do you think?

[SpreadSniper]

I think I'm not understanding the question?

Since Dallas is a short road fav you figure CP3 is playing? If he wasn't Dallas would be more heavily favored?

[cleaveland]

I think I'm not understanding the question?

Since Dallas is a short road fav you figure CP3 is playing? If he wasn't Dallas would be more heavily favored?

Of course. A b2b is usually worth 2-2.5 points on the line. Paul has to be worth another 2 points on the line minimum.

What's a b2b2b worth on the line? It has to be worth 3 points+ v. a rested team I'd think.

The line Dallas -2.5 doesn't add up if Paul is out.

[SpreadSniper]

you are over thinking it

[cleaveland]

you are over thinking it

I'm not betting on something I don't understand. I don't know what a b2b2b is worth on the line or what Paul is worth on the line exactly. And that right reminds me, I would think Mo Williams being a former all star would be worth about half a point.

Don't tell me I'm over-thinking/over-analyzing when I'm not gonna bet into something I don't understand. Doing that is under-analyzing and that will kill you.

I think Paul has to be worth 3 points here (considering old man Billups trying to lead a team on a b2b2b), and a b2b2b has to be worth at least three points here.

IMHO, the Clippers in Dallas at full strength, both teams rested, the line should be Dallas -7. That would make the line approximately a pick in LA. Then, if you add the factors I mentioned above, Dallas would be 6.5 points favorites for this game (No Paul = 3 points + b2b2b v. rested team = 3 points + No Williams =.5).

Maybe I'm simply overvaluing the Mavs and undervaluing the Clippers compared to how the market values these teams but I'm pretty sure that what I just described is closer to reality than Mavs -2.5.

Now, if Paul is playing, then Mavs -2.5 is more or less exactly what my oddsmaking predicted.

[bfour]

If Paul and Mo Williams were playing the Clippers would be favored.

[cleaveland]

If Paul and Mo Williams were playing the Clippers would be favored.

If that's the case then the market is way different than what my analysis says.

If a b2b2b v. a rested team is worth 3 points on the line, then for the Clippers to be favored here it would mean that the market considers Mavs v. Clippers to be about a pick on a nuetral court with both teams rested.

That means the Clippers are way overvalued right now, with both teams at full strength the Mavs should be -200 or so on a neutral court imho.

That's pretty shocking to me actually.

[SpreadSniper]

Clips are 6-1 at home. Dallas 2-4 on the road.
Clips are quickly becoming more of a "public" team.
I figure books hope Paul is playing and will obviously be rested. Chance Mo can come back as well. If they both sit again Clips are gonna get pumped.
Traveling FROM Utah and playing on b2b is hard on the body as well, never mind a b2b2b.

[cleaveland]

If they both sit again Clips are gonna get pumped.

I agree with you, if those guys don't play, it's hard to imagine the Clippers keeping it close.

[CHAZ]

Clips are quickly becoming more of a "public" team.

Definitely the new Yankees/Cowboys of the NBA

[HoulihansTX]

Love Clipps

[nick86]

Love Clipps

in this game or in general?

[HoulihansTX]

If Paul and Mo Williams were playing the Clippers would be favored.

[HoulihansTX]

This game.

[SaffaCappa]

Take the Mavs all the way to the bank

[riffraff24]

Keep in mind the Mavs have been in town since Monday when they lost a heart breaker to the lakeshow so i'm looking for them to come out strong, rested and focused but i'm not making a play until I know who's playing.

[SpreadSniper]

Dirk missed shoot-around, has a cold apparently but is still playing... Carter not playing - not sure it matters

[CHAZ]

Clippers are a totally different team at home.

"The score was so lopsided Del Negro got to rest his starters in the fourth quarter in anticipation for their third game in as many days. "There's no excuse," he said. "We got to bounce back (Wednesday) and play much harder."

I'm starting to like the Clips more and more

[nick86]

4th quarter rest vs 1 full day of rest.

[cumatmebrah]

I'm not betting on something I don't understand. I don't know what a b2b2b is worth on the line or what Paul is worth on the line exactly. And that right reminds me, I would think Mo Williams being a former all star would be worth about half a point.

Don't tell me I'm over-thinking/over-analyzing when I'm not gonna bet into something I don't understand. Doing that is under-analyzing and that will kill you.

I think Paul has to be worth 3 points here (considering old man Billups trying to lead a team on a b2b2b), and a b2b2b has to be worth at least three points here.

IMHO, the Clippers in Dallas at full strength, both teams rested, the line should be Dallas -7. That would make the line approximately a pick in LA. Then, if you add the factors I mentioned above, Dallas would be 6.5 points favorites for this game (No Paul = 3 points + b2b2b v. rested team = 3 points + No Williams =.5).

Maybe I'm simply overvaluing the Mavs and undervaluing the Clippers compared to how the market values these teams but I'm pretty sure that what I just described is closer to reality than Mavs -2.5.

Now, if Paul is playing, then Mavs -2.5 is more or less exactly what my oddsmaking predicted.

[og4667]

cp3 is questionable he probably suits up tonight...

[SpreadSniper]

4th quarter rest vs 1 full day of rest.

traveling home FROM Utah to face a team that just lost to the Lakers.

[HoulihansTX]

Carter not playing - not sure it matters

I saw this happen. He missed a wide open three, that would have tied the game, then faked an INJ to play-off missing the shot. He does that shit all the time.

[nick86]

traveling home FROM Utah to face a team that just lost to the Lakers.

exactly. or am i missing your point?

[Vortexx00]

I saw this happen. He missed a wide open three, that would have tied the game, then faked an INJ to play-off missing the shot. He does that shit all the time.

Yeah the shit was funny as hell. If the shot went in he would of been walking around all bad ass taunting the fans..

[Legero]

I saw this happen. He missed a wide open three, that would have tied the game, then faked an INJ to play-off missing the shot. He does that shit all the time.

LOL I'm from Toronto, I saw a lot of this in his last 2 years here. This post is 100% true!

[thebestthereis]

Carter wins dunk contests and jumping jack marathons, he doesn't win basketball games in the NBA.

[suicidekings]

Carter's been playing better this year than in any of the last few seasons. His absence is not insignificant. Dirk actually hasn't been playing up to his normal level this season, but even his presence in the game, taking ~10 shots makes it tough for the Clippers because he forces the Clipper bigs to come out and defend him at his shooting distance or allow him to shoot over the top of the smaller perimeter defenders all night long. For the Clippers, not having Paul/Mo in the lineup is bad news, but when you're falling back on Billups/Foye as your starting guards, that's not a bad plan B at all.

I think Dallas is a good play here IF Paul/Williams are both out. Mo has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight. Paul is supposedly a gametime decision, but it makes a lot more sense to be conservative with him and get him back to 100%.

[Sunde91]

-155 ML and -3 on verge of -3.5

pretty safe to say Paul out. No possible way the line is like that otherwise

[nick86]

Paul will officially not be playing tonight.

Dallas should be a lock. I'll be playing this one big. GL.

[Balco10]

Clips are coming back from a long road trip. Dallas is rested and relaxed. Plus they have the better defense. Can see the Mavs winning by 6 or more.

[sportfan]

gonna tough without cp3

[ksnooksk]

But, with Mo back it allows Billups to play less minutes and be more effective. Plus, they all rested in the 4th quarter last night anyways. I'm sticking with my Clips +3.

BOL

[HoulihansTX]

Clips are coming back from a long road trip.

More nonesense.

Clipps have played one road game in their last 4 games.

[ksnooksk]

But, with Mo back it allows Billups to play less minutes and be more effective. Plus, they all rested in the 4th quarter last night anyways. I'm sticking with my Clips +3.

BOL