1. 01-17-12 01:09 AM #1
    No coincidences
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    Faves and unders continue to hit at an incredible rate

    Favorites were 7-4 today and are now 131-101 this season (56 percent)

    Unders were 7-4 today (last seven games of the day went under) and are now 137-95 this season (59 percent)

    Compare this to the NFL (126-127-11 faves and 134-125 overs, respectively), college football (390-410-11 and 399-400) or college basketball (845-883-36 and 861-880) and the numbers are even more imbalanced. Wonder when the "correction" comes with more dogs and overs starting to hit?
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  2. 01-17-12 01:17 AM #2
    lunchbawks
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    59% so far it all evens out in the end. totals are jacked up for tuesday night thats for sure ^^^^
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  3. 01-17-12 01:33 AM #3
    suicidekings
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    All I can say is make hay while the sun shines...

    You're comparing ATS numbers from 1/4 of the way through the season with end of season stats from different sports. That alone should be enough to take that result with a grain of salt. I feel like the shortened preseason and compressed regular season favours the teams with more talent on the roster early on. Over time the teams that are still getting their shit together will perform better, so the line adjustment may not be that significant.
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  4. 01-17-12 01:36 AM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    All I can say is make hay while the sun shines...

    You're comparing ATS numbers from 1/4 of the way through the season with end of season stats from different sports. That alone should be enough to take that result with a grain of salt. I feel like the shortened preseason and compressed regular season favours the teams with more talent on the roster early on. Over time the teams that are still getting their shit together will perform better, so the line adjustment may not be that significant.
    It'll be pretty close to 50% on both fronts in the end -- not a matter of if the correction comes, but when.
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  5. 01-17-12 01:56 AM #5
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    It'll be pretty close to 50% on both fronts in the end -- not a matter of if the correction comes, but when.
    You mean a correction from the books, right? Or just the dogs playing better?
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  6. 01-17-12 02:25 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    You mean a correction from the books, right? Or just the dogs playing better?
    Books.
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  7. 01-17-12 02:36 AM #7
    YouHave2outs
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    pr9 posted a thread several days ago that 7+ home faves were hitting straight up at 91% since that time i've made 3 3team parlays on this and all 9 teams have won. none of the teams i chose were more than -10 and only the -10 was more than -8.5. real small sample size, but yeah

    edit...i am positive at least 5 of the 9 i bet on covered as well, most likely 6 or 7...again very small sample size
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  8. 01-17-12 02:54 AM #8
    suicidekings
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    If they didn't make major corrections for the ass-raping they took in the first half of NCAAF, they're not going to be too fast to make an adjustment to this situation. The natural variation of the game will even things out.
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