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Betting against the Public
How good of a strategy is it if I were to take the top 3 public wagers each night and fade them? Has anyone tried this? I just started tracking it tonight and was curious if anyone has any experience/tips.
Top 3 public plays (1/10/11):
1. Dallas -5.5 (Public Win)
2. OKC -3 (Public Win)
3. MIA -7.5 (In progress)
Obviously it's not off to a great start but who knows how it will work long run.
its very trendy...some days public wins out other days public loses...other variables have to be factored
I checked for a few days in a row, taking the home team if the public didn't favour them and it went 5-1 on that day. So far today it's 1-3
Trendy was mentioned above, that's the best description of it.
these experiments never work. some days good, some days bad. in the end it all evens out.
It does not even out. If you were to track all the public plays, over time the public would clearly be in the red at some point. even if it was close, the juice would kick in..........'the lights are bright in vegas for a reason'
Of the various situational angles that I use in capping NBA games, betting against the public is pretty far down the list of importance. You'd be far better off considering factors that are directly related to the matchup at hand...
Public usually loses more than 80% of time if the bets for a particular team are too overwhelming for the books to handle. This add to the fact if the line dosen't move alot too. If its slightly heavy sometimes the popular team still covers. Remember books operate in cartel similar to diamond and oil trade. They know each other's volume for each matchup. You know the game will then be rigged to clean up.
i'm sorry sir, but this is not true.Originally Posted by YOUSENKO
Have another cocktail to try and forget that nonsense...
Public went wild tonight.
Heat, Sixers, Mavs, Thunder, Jazz, Bulls were all lopsided public plays. Only one they lost was Spurs.
haha if my statement is untrue then all the books including SBR had closed down today. Major league games are in millions, imagine 950k is on a team and 50k is on opposing team. Any form of hedging is useless in this case. They won't even allow let such lopsided plates to hit more than 20% of the time. I am saying 20% is generous figure.
Look at a team like miami, how many times they cover when literally the WHOLE public is on them? I'll say 1/10 or 2/10. When literally WHOLE public bet on ATL against them they covered w/o wade and james.
in a long period of time i think betting against public will give you 50% efficiency. so you would lose. better to look at line movements, but they are not that crucial in betting. sometimes just a valuable tool.
U do realize Vegas makes most of it's money from non sports related gamblingIt does not even out. If you were to track all the public plays, over time the public would clearly be in the red at some point. even if it was close, the juice would kick in..........'the lights are bright in vegas for a reason'
No matter what your strategy is you have to know when to pick your advantage spots,
This is no different when betting against the public.......
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