[Mr_RLM]

Welcome to the world of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.

So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.

To qualify a game for a play you must have at Least 60% of Bets on Side & Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point. Any injury to a starter and the game is a no play since the line will be adjusted by the book for that player(s) absence. Below are the results from previous years and sports to show over time if you completely stick to this and this only you will benefit over time.

League W L P Pct Units
NFL 2008 18 - 13- 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155- 130 -9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137- 106- 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 -156- 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 -182 -6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272- 203 -11 57.3% 42.04

This is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping. Lets do this until the end of the basketball season and then into baseball and see what happens.

We will start tonight, Wednesday, February 25, 2009

[Dexter]

great thread idea. here is something that has always puzzled me with RLM. say 90% of the public is on boston tonight, yet the line has dropped from 10 to 9. at what point do you lock in the bet? after the first movement following the opening line, or do you track until tipoff?

ive seen many instances where i thought i was with the sharps, only to see the line (using the above example) float back to 10 by tipoff.

[Mr_RLM]

Hi Dexter.

If i understand this correctly, if Boston has 60% or more of the percentage of wagers the line must drop at least 1 pt. from the OPENING line. In this case it didnt the line started at Boston -8 and went up to -10 so the only way it would be a RLM play is if the line went down to Boston -7 or lower by the time the line closes.

I'm not sold that this works by itself with no handicapping, although people seem to think it does, but i guess if people dont use these plays solely on RLM they can use these RLM plays along with their handicapping of games to decide of a game is a play or a no play.

[Dexter]

"

[Mr_RLM]

Doesnt vegas insider just use 1 book? I find there are better sites with more database.
We can confirm a play as close to line closing as possible i guess but we have to give enough time for people to get action on it. Prob 5-10 minutes before tipoff. I can post the possible plays 30 minutes before those plays tipoff so people have a idea who they might be if that will help.

[Bluehorseshoe]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...low-money.html

[Mr_RLM]

Possible RLM plays for 4pm.

South Florida +7 (74% Seton Hall, line dropped from Seton Hall -8 to -7)
Rutgers +14 (74% Notre Dame, line dropped from Notre Dame -15 to -14)

There are a couple others that we need to wait closer to gametime to see if the lines move.

[Mr_RLM]

4pm Booked RLM plays:

South Florida +7 (74% Seton Hall, line dropped from Seton Hall -8 to -7)......LOSS
Rutgers +14 (74% Notre Dame, line dropped from Notre Dame -15 to -14).....WIN
Marshall ML (74% East Carolina, line dropped from East Carolina -2.5 to -1)...WIN


Updated

NBA 0-0
CBB 2-1

[esz04]

Mr. RLM,

Just a word of advice from someone who has used RLM as his main form of picking games. A 1 point drop on a double digit spread (like the Rutgers game) is generally not as telling as a 1 point drop on a smaller spread like the Marshall game. I generally look for 2 points on spreads of 10+ before seeing it as RLM.

[Mr_RLM]

I guess we can all put whatever filters we want but to stay strict to the instructions its a play.

[Mr_RLM]

Doesnt look like we have any 5pm plays. Arkansas / Alabama is close but not there yet.

[SexyMit]

It works, the thread 4 posts of tracked 100+ games. I use it all the time it works.

[Ditaln1]

So, what happens when a line say opens at 7.5, and there is 90% of bets on one side, but the line doesn't move from 7.5 ? Do you take the team with the lower percentage of bets?

[Mr_RLM]

No the line must move 1 point towards the team that has 40% or less of the percentage of wagers.
The percentage and line move must both be present.

[holdplz]

I follow the ML & Spread on a few English bookie sites that are usually very cautious of sharp money. They wait for the early movement before posting their fixed lines, and whenever there's a huge ML/Spread differential, it tells me something's up. Today they listed Detroit innocuously as +8.5, however the ML is only +300. It's currently listed at around +340 at most flucuating offshore lines, yet they correctly predicted that the Detroit ML was live before all the action was placed!

If you mindlessly play every RLM, you're guaranteed money, but if you factor in a handicapping system, you'll be much more successful.

[Mr_RLM]

I follow the ML & Spread on a few English bookie sites that are usually very cautious of sharp money. They wait for the early movement before posting their fixed lines, and whenever there's a huge ML/Spread differential, it tells me something's up. Today they listed Detroit innocuously as +8.5, however the ML is only +300. It's currently listed at around +340 at most flucuating offshore lines, yet they correctly predicted that the Detroit ML was live before all the action was placed!

If you mindlessly play every RLM, you're guaranteed money, but if you factor in a handicapping system, you'll be much more successful.

Very true

[Dexter]

Doesnt vegas insider just use 1 book? I find there are better sites with more database.
We can confirm a play as close to line closing as possible i guess but we have to give enough time for people to get action on it. Prob 5-10 minutes before tipoff. I can post the possible plays 30 minutes before those plays tipoff so people have a idea who they might be if that will help.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) I believe is where the line originates.

vegasinsider only uses one book when reporting public bet %. for that i use thespread.com

[Mr_RLM]

Vill/Depaul also close

[Mr_RLM]

Looks like no 5pm plays. A couple were within a half point but they are not played because the line didnt move 1 point. On to the next group of plays. The 4pm plays are all winning at half but we all know that will probably change before the buzzer.

As of now there are no 5:30 plays but 2 are close. If your wondering about the Spurs game it doesnt qualify due to starters that are injured and that could be why the line changed so we stay away.

[Dexter]

also mr. rlm - i would suggest not focusing on any games that have a star player questionable.

ie, the hawks today....line moved 2 pts but was b/c of the injury news on smith, bibby.

what site are you using for the opening?

[Mr_RLM]

Your right and i made that point on post #19 with the Spurs. I will filter out all the games with injured starters Dex, thanks and you make some good points.

[Mr_RLM]

Looks like no 5:30 plays. Drake was close but no cigar as of yet.
Nothing even close for the 6pm games as of yet.

[SexyMit]

So, what happens when a line say opens at 7.5, and there is 90% of bets on one side, but the line doesn't move from 7.5 ? Do you take the team with the lower percentage of bets?

Yes I go the other way and it still works

[Mr_RLM]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...ml#post1575653

[Mr_RLM]

Yes I go the other way and it still works

Im sure alot of things work but if you read post #1 of this thread it doesnt.

[Mr_RLM]

No 6pm plays

[Mr_RLM]

Not a bad start. Next we will look at the 6:30 and 7pm games.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...ml#post1575653

[Karayilan9]

That Rutgers game was close they almost blew it but then came back, nice work

[Mr_RLM]

No 6:30pm play...next up 7pm and 7:30 games.

[yisman]

great thread idea.

Not really.

oops, Blue beat me to it.

But seriously, we get another RLM thread started every week.

[Mr_RLM]

And you keep visiting them and commenting on them every week..lol...follow it or not doesnt matter to me. If you follow it with someone who spends alot of time on it you will win money and isnt that why we are here?

[Mr_RLM]

Okla St/Colorado close.....Sac/Char close but no cigar yet..we still have about 20 min

[Dexter]

Not really.

oops, Blue beat me to it.

But seriously, we get another RLM thread started every week.

sorry boss!

if i start another one right now, will you start banging your head on your keyboard?