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Play I cant pass up for Tuesday
OKC -4.5 is one of those plays that just seems too easy...I have been gambling for about 11 years now and through the years I have definitely notice these lines that look to good to be true, about 95% of the time are just that...A TRAP!!
But I still haven't learned my lesson
OKC -4.5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ap5Sw3xsZhU
Whats so easy about it? Flipped a coin and it landed OKC or whats your reason?
The only thing going against OKC is they are off a back-to-back...Originally Posted by Kadinni
I honestly believe that OKC is about 6 points better than the Trailblazers on a neutral court, which should make them about 7.5 point favorites in this spot...
OKC is a great home team while Portland is "shaky" at best on the road....
everyone started threads saying how the Sixers at -2 was a gift at Utah after the Lakers pummeled the winless Jazz
everyone thought OKC was a "can't miss" bargain (i heard from TWO people mention that exact phrase and countless similar phrases) when they opened at -2 against dallas just yesterday. It was almost unanimous and 88% of the bets went to OKC according to thespread.com and other sources at this time yesterday (literally 24 hours ago)
There must have been 10 threads started on this board alone (and I counted almost 20 on another similar forum), with people telling us how Indiana at -2.5 was an absolute gift and a sure-fire play against winless (and hapless) Detroit just 3 nights ago.
when do people learn ?
I bombed em all.
what about the 7 games in 10 days and having to play alot of stiff competition. Portland has only played 4 games and all spaced out. Portland matchups fairly well against this OKC team. Wallace defends Durant extremely well. Tough spot for OKC to lay the -4.5. I might wait for it to go up and take portland and hopefully we both win.
Well if it means anything..I had DAL ML and DET ML today...
It was the same thing with Detroit last night.
Opening up as only +2.5 underdogs to ORLANDO ?? Are you f*ckin kidding me ?
Orlando was just 10 point favorites on the road a few days ago.. and now here, against detroit, all of a sudden , out of the blue, they open at -2.5 against Detroit ?? lmao .. of course over 90% of the public bet on ORL.
And off course I played it. IN FACT, I loved it so much that not only did I bet them individually, I also PARLAYED Detroit with Dallas... and to top it off added a 3rd team that was winless at home:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-2-2012-a.html
lol @ Vegas ripping people off
Last edited by PR9; 01-03-12 at 04:53 AM.
It is a big difference playing a home dog ...Orlando was never favored on the road by 10 points...EVER!
they were at charlotte after charlotte almost beat miami
what happens ? Of course orlando wins by 20+
vegas tells you everything by the line ( individually, match it up with the moneyline "individually", then fuse together.. and finally add both spread and moneyline on the other side).. like candy
Same thing with Miami against charlotte. Charlotte was getting a little more money on their side, yet the line moved from +14 to +14.5 ??
Vegas didn't want to hit the +15 threshold, so what they did was they stacked a ridiculous moneyline number of -2350 because they wanted no one to bet on miami. That was it for me... ALL IN ON MIAMI that night.. and i talked about i that day, and why.
Vegas knew full well that miami was going to blow charlotte out of the building that night. miami won by 39
Vegas gave you all the clues.
Don't bet teams. And...
Forget about players.
Forget about their accomplishments.
Forget about matchups.
forget about history of the team(s).
forget about what happened when the teams last faced each other.
Forget about the colors of the jerseys.
Forget about the logo's on their chests.
Forget about betting on teams.
Bet on the "LINES" . And ONLY the lines.
Because the lines tell you E.V.E.R.Y.T.H.I.N.G !
Too much information PR9. Let them do what they think to be right, we win what they lose.
I agree with about 90% of this....I just didnt know how to put it in words
Thanks for the insight
no they weren't. they were between -4 and -5, i think it closed at 4. i know because i bet the game
You made sense in some posts(not in this thread) until I read this, which doesnt make sense to me, because its not true.
Last edited by BernardMadoff; 01-03-12 at 07:40 AM.
nice info... THINK BEFORE BETTING.. don't be a wannabe
PR9 sorry for the question, but I understand what you're saying about the Orlando in Detroit and Charlotte in Miami games and lines, but I don't really understand what you're saying about reading the lines from vegas. I'm not really sure what clues I should be looking for when reading these lines or how it can be of help. Or are all you saying is when an away fave like Orlando has what seems to be 'too good a line' then fade them, and when a home side like miami has a big line where people worry if they'll cover, then take them?
Its BS, forget what he said, unless you want to go broke.
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