1. 01-01-12 11:16 AM #1
    Jaug
    1 in 2.7 mill
    Jaug's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-09
    Posts: 3,086
    Betpoints: 2977

    Trap of the day, Charlotte +14.5

    People are all over charlotte tonight. This line has to be put there for a reason. Looking at miami's games so far this season they shouldn't lay 14.5 to Charlotte.

    I guess that's why 72% of bets are coming in on the dog in the mu. Stay away
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-01-12 12:41 PM #2
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Yeh watch Heat win by 20

    I layed off the game
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-01-12 12:49 PM #3
    demens
    Square -910
    demens's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-10
    Posts: 2,785
    Betpoints: 1258

    I dont think this is a trap. Miami is 4-0 and arguably the best team in the league. Bobcats are down there with the worst of the league and just got annihilated by Orlando. The line seems right to me. People are just jumping on the Bobcats because they played the Heat close at home. The Heat were getting inflated lines like this all year and will continue to get them. They actually did not have a good ATS record as a double digit fav so i think Cats may be a good play. At the end of the day you're betting on a horrible team to not get blown out by an elite team so keep that in mind, but its no trap imo.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-01-12 12:52 PM #4
    demens
    Square -910
    demens's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-10
    Posts: 2,785
    Betpoints: 1258

    besides, sportsinsights has the spread at 53% Heat, public is hardly all over the Cats.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-01-12 02:06 PM #5
    Dexter
    Update your status
    Dexter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-08
    Posts: 25,829
    Betpoints: 0

    yeah, "traps" are typically not set for horrible teams. traps are meant to entice squares on taking good public teams (ie, if miami was -3 at charl)....thats a trap.
    Points Awarded:

    MrXYZ gave Dexter 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-01-12 02:15 PM #6
    monologue
    monologue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 239

    FYI people.. Trap exists in all kind of game. And for me this is trap. Cats playing close with miami at their home... And giving 14.5 just bcuz they r away from home makes people think 14.5 is way too big an believe that the cats will at least cover the handicapp but im sorry... They are wrong, heat will take this game by 20pts or more..82% on cats and 18% on heat from vegasinsider(sportsbook)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-01-12 03:43 PM #7
    Jaug
    1 in 2.7 mill
    Jaug's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-09
    Posts: 3,086
    Betpoints: 2977

    70% on charlotte ATS according to pregame.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-01-12 03:43 PM #8
    Jaug
    1 in 2.7 mill
    Jaug's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-09
    Posts: 3,086
    Betpoints: 2977

    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    yeah, "traps" are typically not set for horrible teams. traps are meant to entice squares on taking good public teams (ie, if miami was -3 at charl)....thats a trap.
    Not really. Traps are lines that stand out of the ordinary. This is definately such a case. Miami hasnt been close to covering this line in any of their games so far vs 4 different opponents.

    On another note, thinking of going big on miami this game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-01-12 03:50 PM #9
    Dexter
    Update your status
    Dexter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-08
    Posts: 25,829
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by monologue View Post
    FYI people.. Trap exists in all kind of game. And for me this is trap. Cats playing close with miami at their home... And giving 14.5 just bcuz they r away from home makes people think 14.5 is way too big an believe that the cats will at least cover the handicapp but im sorry... They are wrong, heat will take this game by 20pts or more..82% on cats and 18% on heat from vegasinsider(sportsbook)
    do not use vegasinsider for sides...i think it accounts for 1 sportsbook. 82% of the public is not the on the bobcats...lol

    http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...-betting-chart

    use this site....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-01-12 03:53 PM #10
    Dexter
    Update your status
    Dexter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-08
    Posts: 25,829
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    Not really. Traps are lines that stand out of the ordinary. This is definately such a case. Miami hasnt been close to covering this line in any of their games so far vs 4 different opponents.
    couldn't disagree more. i don't know one square bettor who would look at this line and be enticed to take a team like the bobcats.

    i hope you don't look for traps every day. that's not what the books intentions are.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-01-12 03:54 PM #11
    Dexter
    Update your status
    Dexter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-08
    Posts: 25,829
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    70% on charlotte ATS according to pregame.
    use thespread.com.....they take a consensus from sportsinsights. its widely considered the gold standard for free public bet%'s....and according to them, just 47% is on charl.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-01-12 03:57 PM #12
    Jaug
    1 in 2.7 mill
    Jaug's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-09
    Posts: 3,086
    Betpoints: 2977

    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    couldn't disagree more. i don't know one square bettor who would look at this line and be enticed to take a team like the bobcats.

    i hope you don't look for traps every day. that's not what the books intentions are.
    I agree public wont jump all over it but still 14.5 points, i would expect this line at 10.5 or similar but I would never bet charlotte since I cant see the reason why the line is set this way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-01-12 04:02 PM #13
    Dexter
    Update your status
    Dexter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-08
    Posts: 25,829
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    I agree public wont jump all over it but still 14.5 points, i would expect this line at 10.5 or similar but I would never bet charlotte since I cant see the reason why the line is set this way.
    miami's lines are always going to be jacked...i thought this year they would bury teams on a regular basis, but not the case thus far
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-01-12 04:33 PM #14
    PR9
    PR9's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-11
    Posts: 2,813
    Betpoints: 651

    1) miami is due to cover. they blew out bobcats in the 2nd half of the last game

    2) bobcats are weak mentally. they put in alot of effort against miami last week and lost. Then they responded with their fragile young minds and mental state by being lazy and playing like wussies against the magic getting blown out in the next game. they were atrocious.

    3) Heat are at home, this isn't on the road like the wolves and bobcats games. The last time Heat were at home they led 14 at the half over the celtics.

    4) the heat had a propensity to blow out poor teams last year. they are due for one.

    5) revenge factor. the heat almost lost to the bobcats in charlotte,.. they may come out today and show them who's boss.

    6) the line says everything

    7) the heat blew out poor teams on weekend afternoon games last year

    8) the heat will want to put on a show for the home crowd as it's a holiday, new years day. As well as other factors.

    there's more factors i can put out there but that's a start..

    EDIT:

    But You know what.

    the moneyline vegas has is high for this spread.

    it's -2300 at the more reliable places. And it's been off the board altogether in one popular book.

    what does that tell you.

    hmmm
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-01-12 04:34 PM #15
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Take the 1H -8.5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-01-12 04:40 PM #16
    monologue
    monologue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 239

    i am going to trust my guts... this is miami game.
    when the line is -14.5... not many people have guts to bet BIG on miami, while a lot of people will bet big on bobcats. +14.5 gives them confidence to their betting. Regardless of how many % are for bobcats (as u said 47%), i think the money they poured on bobcats are much bigger than the money on miami. Plus.. including all the things PR9 said which I agree... I have no regret even if miami loses... sorry for my terrible english
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-01-12 04:49 PM #17
    PR9
    PR9's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-11
    Posts: 2,813
    Betpoints: 651

    Quote Originally Posted by monologue View Post
    i am going to trust my guts... this is miami game.
    when the line is -14.5... not many people have guts to bet BIG on miami, while a lot of people will bet big on bobcats. +14.5 gives them confidence to their betting. Regardless of how many % are for bobcats (as u said 47%), i think the money they poured on bobcats are much bigger than the money on miami. Plus.. including all the things PR9 said which I agree... I have no regret even if miami loses... sorry for my terrible english
    i like Orlando in this spot at -11
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-01-12 04:55 PM #18
    BernardMadoff
    Sam Hurd +3000
    BernardMadoff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-12-09
    Posts: 6,679
    Betpoints: 280

    Charlotte first quarter and first half, Heat celebrated last night harder than usual with this game being at 7pm for them. They wont be as sharp early on.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-01-12 04:59 PM #19
    monologue
    monologue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 239

    what are ur bets PR9? im going heavy on miamia and washington. some side bets on minesota and denver... hmmm got some ML on NJN too
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-01-12 05:13 PM #20
    bobbyfk
    Las Vegas Local
    bobbyfk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-09
    Posts: 15,218
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by PR9 View Post
    1) The last time Heat were at home they led 14 at the half over the celtics.
    they don't pay at the half...and what was the final score of this game? Heat did not cover
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-01-12 05:25 PM #21
    PR9
    PR9's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-11
    Posts: 2,813
    Betpoints: 651

    Quote Originally Posted by BernardMadoff View Post

    Charlotte first quarter and first half, Heat celebrated last night harder than usual with this game being at 7pm for them. They wont be as sharp early on.


    No way. I had Miami 1st Q and 1H bets placed this morning.


    the "spot" screamed for it.

    SCREAMED !! They were going to come out hard tonight.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 01-01-12 05:29 PM #22
    monologue
    monologue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 239

    Miami slaughtering cats now... Hope this continues
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 01-01-12 05:29 PM #23
    DrIn$entive
    DrIn$entive's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-11
    Posts: 411
    Betpoints: 1

    Heat on FIRE!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 01-01-12 05:40 PM #24
    Sport_Fish
    Sport_Fish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-10
    Posts: 4,079
    Betpoints: 2039

    Just gotta be afraid of a backdoor cover here, Miami tend to take naps during second half.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 01-01-12 05:40 PM #25
    BernardMadoff
    Sam Hurd +3000
    BernardMadoff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-12-09
    Posts: 6,679
    Betpoints: 280

    Quote Originally Posted by PR9 View Post



    No way. I had Miami 1st Q and 1H bets placed this morning.


    the "spot" screamed for it.

    SCREAMED !! They were going to come out hard tonight.
    Yea I went small on it, didnt pan out.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 01-01-12 05:49 PM #26
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Miami was due

    Played a lot of close games
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 01-01-12 05:59 PM #27
    illAdelph
    illAdelph's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-11
    Posts: 405
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Miami was due

    Played a lot of close games

    absolutely
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 01-02-12 12:41 AM #28
    Jaug
    1 in 2.7 mill
    Jaug's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-09
    Posts: 3,086
    Betpoints: 2977

    129-90 which is a 39 point win. Enough said.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 01-02-12 12:48 AM #29
    Djstucky
    Djstucky's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-11
    Posts: 2,993
    Betpoints: 454

    Nice call here...Miami dominated this game...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 01-02-12 01:06 AM #30
    monologue
    monologue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 239

    those who betted on miami...
    SAY YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 01-02-12 05:28 AM #31
    Coolsmarti
    Coolsmarti's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-10
    Posts: 147
    Betpoints: 372

    I took -8.5 at HT. Nooo problem. :-)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 01-02-12 05:33 AM #32
    daimoshokage
    daimoshokage's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-11
    Posts: 8,935
    Betpoints: 57

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Miami was due

    Played a lot of close games
    Sharp post from the sharpest guy on the forum!!!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »