SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Vitooch's NBA Capping Theory Experiment Thing A Ma Jig
Ok guys.
I have only been capping NBA since the beginning of this season. I have used prior capping experience (of other sports such as NFL and MMA), and a respectable knowledge of NBA in the hopes the my learning curve for NBA capping would be a little less severe. So far, I've had some really great days of NBA capping, and some pretty shitty ones. I've tried to understand what has gone wrong with the plays I have been making. I went back and looked at my picks since day one and fortunately have noticed a trend.
Some of my losing picks include:
Bucks -3 on the road against the Bobcats
Knicks -3 on the road against the Warriors
Celtics -2 1/2 on the road against the Hornets
Spurs -1 on the road against the Rockets
All these plays have one glaring thing in common. I took an above average road favorite against an average to below average home dog. You see, for a newbie like myself these lines looked too easy. I used the rationale that any beginner capper like myself would use, that "Team A (the team i selected) was good, and that Team B was inferior". And, usually, that claim is correct, but it doesn't translate well to capping the spread in the NBA. In this taxing NBA season where a team must travel across the country and play many games per week, these superior teams will occasionally have what many would call "letdown performances". Often times these letwdown performances come after the team put on a impressive performance, usually at home, against a tough opponent in a very meaningful game, a "statement game" of sorts. In these "statement games", teams put the proceeding and prior games beside them, and devote all their resources and energy in that one very important and meaningful game. When a team does this, they seem to come into their next game unprepared, underestimating their opponents after such a barn burner of a game the previous night. This gives the home dog the perfect opportunity to steal a win from these above average teams on their home court.
If you look at the teams I selected in those above plays, most were coming off a big win or wins, or in the Celtics case, two very close losses to above average teams. The Knicks were coming off an opening day win against the Celtics in the Garden, the Spurs were coming off huge blowout wins against the Clippers and Griz. As for the Bucks, they were playing their first game of the season but seem to fit the description of a road favorite that may have underestimated their opponent. As for the Celts, they may not have won their two previous games, but both were close, taxing losses against two very tough Eastern Conference foes.
Tonight, I put my theory to action. I saw that the Jazz were hosting the 76ers. The line was initially 76ers -3. I knew that the public would fall in love with this line. The 76ers were coming off a close loss to the Trailblazers and a blowout win against the Suns and were facing the lowly 0-2 Jazz. What the public seemed to have forgotten was that the Jazz's two losses were on the road against some of the toughest teams in the West, in the Lakers and Nuggets. And also, the 76ers, after a blowout win against the Suns, may have been due for a letdown game. So, I went to sleep, woke up, and as expected, found that the line moved to 76ers -4 and eventually -5. The public ate this line up and the books were about to make a killing. So, I quickly took the Jazz spread and ML, and what do you know, it ******* cashed!
So, let's put this theory to the test. And to reward you for reading this, I bring you the Black Keys...
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Vitooch
