[blankoblanco]

so i've been doing fine at NFL and NCAAB this season, NBA comes along which i follow more closely than college, and i'm getting buried and losing profits from the other sports. only been 4-5 days since the season began and i already have no confidence in any bet i make

it's not just that i've been losing all my bets bc i know it hasn't been many games -- its that i suck too much to even get good lines, when usually in other sports i get above average lines consistently. example, many hours ago i saw Heat/Timberwolves total set at 208.5, thought the under looked good so played it. now it's gotten pounded to 212, so clearly something's up (sharps/RAS on it?) and my thinking was way off. same with Cavs/Pacers total, took under 187, it's now been pounded to 193!!! LA clippers home vs. bulls, i grabbed -1, pounded to +2, lol. and of course i have no faith in my original thinking now, so i'm afraid to put more on any of these better lines. already fully expecting to lose them since i must have no idea what i'm doing

here's my bets today for anyone who wants to fade -- probably a good idea. maybe i should stop betting these games because so far i'm feeling lost in the NBA this year

Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 208½ -110
Clippers -1 -102
Grizzlies -5 -110
Cavaliers/Pacers Under 187 -102
76ers -3 -110

[Pauulzcappin]

I actually like your bets

[Kadinni]

so i've been doing fine at NFL and NCAAB this season, NBA comes along which i follow more closely than college, and i'm getting buried and losing profits from the other sports. only been 4-5 days since the season began and i already have no confidence in any bet i make

it's not just that i've been losing all my bets bc i know it hasn't been many games -- its that i suck too much to even get good lines, when usually in other sports i get above average lines consistently. example, many hours ago i saw Heat/Timberwolves total set at 208.5, thought the under looked good so played it. now it's gotten pounded to 212, so clearly something's up (sharps/RAS on it?) and my thinking was way off. same with Cavs/Pacers total, took under 187, it's now been pounded to 193!!! LA clippers home vs. bulls, i grabbed -1, pounded to +2, lol. and of course i have no faith in my original thinking now, so i'm afraid to put more on any of these better lines. already fully expecting to lose them since i must have no idea what i'm doing

here's my bets today for anyone who wants to fade -- probably a good idea. maybe i should stop betting these games because so far i'm feeling lost in the NBA this year

Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 208½ -110
Clippers -1 -102
Grizzlies -5 -110
Cavaliers/Pacers Under 187 -102
76ers -3 -110

4-1 night

That pacers/cavs game you shoulda waited, to the public eye that looks "low". I really like the under and i was leaning on the under with the wolves but if the miami doesnt play in your face defense(which im doubting they will as seen against bobcats.) i can see the wolves hitting alot of the shots bobcats players missed. But they can very well get crushed 110-85 if the jumper isnt going. im on bulls +1

Good Luck.

[blankoblanco]

4-1 would feel like a miracle for me at this point, but i sure hope you're right! thanks. and i agree i should have thought to wait on the pacers/cavs game. but the total being driven up from an already high 208 in the heat/twolves game i didn't see coming at all, and i still don't really get it

[PR9]

4-1 would feel like a miracle for me at this point, but i sure hope you're right! thanks. and i agree i should have thought to wait on the pacers/cavs game. but the total being driven up from an already high 208 in the heat/twolves game i didn't see coming at all, and i still don't really get it

you really gotta do a lot of studying to be successful with this and not just dive head-first into anything.

Just because I happened to pop up in this thread right after reading the following post, I will include it here below to give you an idea what I'm talking about ( link to the thread of lower post by LTA).. Here's an example of someone else's angle (LTA's angle)

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...plays-p17.html


NBA 2011-2012 12/30/11

Play #1

Heat/Timberwolves over (208.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect a shootout in Minnesota tonight. You have a Heat team coming off a poor shooting effort going against a Twolves team desperately searching for an identity. The Wolves are playing teams close these days and I expect those competitive efforts to continue. The addition of Rubio to the Twolves roster is key, because they now have that playmaker who can create for the inside presence of Love and the inside/outside game of Beasley. Plus, with the sharp point play of Rubio and the tough inside game of Love, the Twolves have the exact formula which usually gives the Heat problems. I think we see both teams play a fast pace and shoot relatively well tonight. There is no reason the Heat should not put up 110 tonight, especially when you factor in the amount of free throws Lebron and Wade should see.

The refs are Zarba, Jones and Roe. Zarba was my nemesis last playoffs with a few of my big under plays as he is one of the historically biggest over refs of recent vintage. Plus, he already has 2 overs under his belt this year. Roe has a historical over lean as well, while Jones slightly favors the under. I have this game set at 212 and I think we see a closer around 210.5 or 211. I think we see one of the highest scoring games of the season to date and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[shawnjohn5]

Here's a tip, if you like the OVER take it asap if you like the under chances are if you wait you'll get a better line. It seems that 80% of linemovement the past few days has been low to high. Line opens at 189 closes at 192 etc etc... Just an early trend I see. Be careful this trend can change soon, but right now take advantage.

[blankoblanco]

heh, 2-3, another losing day, hope you faded like i suggested

pacers/cavs was a mortal lock to go under from like late 3rd quarter on, only thing that can **** it up is overtime, so of course given how things have been going for me, it goes to OT and still only goes over by 2 pts, which wouldnt have happened if i got a better total. sigh

[shawnjohn5]

My day wasn't a total waste bills came in an second half of th total came in as well! I actually benefitted from the ot as I had the over in the pacers game!