Basically want to keep track of my plays see how i do overall. It will be my first year betting a full season from start to finish. Last 2 seasons been busy with school so I was on and off and im really hoping this is a year i can stay with it. I want to be able to look back at mistakes and learn from them and become a better capper in the future. I will provide a brief summary of my research.
These are games i had locked in a while ago that i really had liked after breaking it down and I was able to beat the lines. But I will also play a total at the current lines. I would give a write up on these plays but lines are different now.
Bulls +2 2*
Clippers +2 2*
Heat -3 2*
I wanna have fun and a profitable season this year. Anyone is welcome to tail or fade haha. And any discussion is more than welcome(actually would like to see people's angles)
My plays will be from a 1-5* scale.
Celtics @ New York
Well with news of Paul Pierce sitting out opening day, Marquis Daniels will be starting in his place. I been watching some pre season games and Daniels looks solid. He put up 11 points both nights against the Raptors shooting efficiently took. 5-9 and 5-7. As a starter with the pacers he averaged double digits pts and last year he started 4 games with the Celtics; 3 of the 4 contests he went for double digits including 14 against the Knicks. Celtics are returning most of their players from last year. Major losses would be Big Baby and Green, but Brandon bass is actually a really solid pick up. He will be great playing the 3 if they want to go big or the 4 with KG at the 5 so I believe their offense will still gel with Rondo running the point. They still have Allen to space the court and both KG and Oneil and Bass can hit 10-12 jumper.
Now Knicks are adding Chandler to the mix and Melo is starting fresh with his new squad. With the addition of Chandler, the perception of them has change, they have become all of a sudden a decent defensive squad with chandler. But honestly, his addition a bit overrated. The Mavericks team had a very good squad overall. Kidd, Marion, the Jet and Stevenson all played great perimeter defense. I can see why the public would be all over the under the total with Knicks adding Chandler and the reputation the Celtics have of playing defense. But last season scores were 105-101, 118-116, 112-102, 96-86 going over the posted total 3 outta 4.
Watching the Celtics last year, they were a team that would play up tempo. Its when Rondo is at his best, going into the teeth of the defense and kicking out or finishing at the rim. I see this game going up and down, Celtics are a jump shooting team and if they miss Knicks will go down the court and press with the players they have. I remember last year sharp money poured in on the over right before tip off Celtics@Knicks one game and i see the same happening here, so i will wait for the better number. Currently at 193, i will update at what number i lock it at.
YTD
NBA Season Record ( 2011-2012) : ( 4-0-0) [+8.0 Units]
Grizzlies @ Spurs
I have Grizzlies has a very underrated team. A lot of people are talking about OKC, Lakers, Mavericks and Clippers. Last year Grizzlies flew under the radar, snuck up on the Spurs(beating them 4-2) and went 7 games vs the OKC thunder. Now, they were missing one of their key player in Rudy Gay. Last season I felt it made them better because they were able to work off Gasol and Randolph after Gay was gone. But this year, I feel Gay will know his role and make this team even stronger. Don’t be surprised if they make it again to the WCF with the West as a whole getting weak leaving it up for grabs.
Grizzlies can give the Spurs a nightmare down in the block. Duncan has another year under his belt, and even though Blair plays tough might be asking too much trying to get a grip of both big men down low. If Gasol and Randolph get them in foul trouble, Spurs depth at the 4/5 is slim with Bonner and Splitter as backups. This spur team is a warsnt known as defensive squad ranking last year (in the middle of the pack last year) and this year I think its going to get worse. Their bench will be taking a hit with George hill and McDyess gone. Both players were very crucial for their run last year during the regular season.
Last season Grizzlies were 2-2 vs the Spurs but went a perfect 4-0 ATS, One game was an OT and the other was close till the very end (106-112 OT and 88-95) but of course freethrows at the end of games can make it seem bigger. I like the match up and I am going to take Grizzlies and the points here
Grizzlies +5.5 2*
OKC @ T'Wolves
Will update with a summary of research in a bit
OKC/T'Wolves O208 3*
Leans
Lakers @ Kings(+2.5)
Well I was thinking about looking into this game bull the line opened at -/+2.5, i had the line around +3 last night and was hoping for 4-5 points to play it, i can see this line get hammered and with it being a late play, there can be alot of action on the Lakers as bailout plays. I really liked the kings in this spot. but i just dont see enough value here to play it. I was also going to be looking into the first 1qt of this game but i might not even touch the game.
Raptors @ Cavs[-2.5]
Cavs didnt look bad vs the Pistons. Alot of new guys, new system, pretty much a clean sheet. They dont want to have the same season as last year look for the to come out strong every game. A bunch of young guys looking to play without any pressure and just ball can sometimes sneak up on some people. Scores might not show effort but i think they get this one today.
Houston @ Orlando u199
I might actually still play this. Houston with a new coach, defense was preached all during camp. They really didnt practice much on offense for they will still run a up to speed game. They play a really solid defense squad led by Howard in Orlando. Maybe they get up defensively for this game after KD torched them for 30. What is keeping me off this game is not sure if Houston is fully committed to defense. Could be a good team to look for when playing totals.
YTD NBA Season Record ( 2011-2012) : ( 4-2-0) [+2.50 Units]
T'Wolves @ Bucks
Think its another good spot for them to be an active dog. Bucks were pushing the ball up pretty well and could have scored over 100 points had they didnt have such an awful 3rd qt. If they play the way they played yesterday, against the Wolves theres a chance it can lead to a sloppy up and down game with little defense played. I felt the line should be closer to 198, saw some value here after watching them play last night. Last year both totals went under, but this year they are under new system with a new coach and having a different point guard running the show. Ricky Rubio had a good game, he too was setting up his teamates, can see him having more of an impact this game.
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