1. 12-21-11 08:49 AM #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    EP36's 2nd Half Possession Formula Picks

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-baske...dness-p17.html

    Been using this formula for college hoops plays this season for 2nd halves and will now be applying it to some NBA games as well to see how it holds up. So far in the pre-season, it has worked out well.

    The basics for anyone who cares:

    At half time, use this formula to calculate # of possessions.

    Total (FGAs - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers) + (FTAs x 0.475)

    This gets you a close estimate of the # of possessions in the 1st half. Then compare to the # of points scored to determine if the points per possession is more or less than one point per possession.

    Then I look at the total the book hangs at the half. For example, last night's Denver-Phoenix game had 113 1st half possession and the points per possession were right about 1:1. Book set the line at 104.5. That indicates a sure play on the over.

    Late game: Golden State-Sacramento had 100 1st half possessions with the game total at half time at 90. That indicated a less than 1:1 ratio for points per possession. Books set the half time line at 104. That indicated a sure play on the under.

    So those are the basics for how I am working this formula for 2nd halves. Not saying it is perfect, but it has yielded some pretty decent returns in college hoops and held up with the four games I tested out in the NBA preseason so far. As with all formulas/systems/whatever, it's not perfect - but hopefully will provide us with some useful info and solid picks. Tail. Fade. You do what you want, just trying to provide some info with this thread. Will not play all games, only the ones I am able to work the formula on that have a clear edge.

    Will sample out a few tonight if time is available.
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  2. 12-21-11 09:05 AM #2
    VikesPhanatic84
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    Thanks for sharing EP. Will give it a shot with ya!!
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  3. 12-21-11 03:15 PM #3
    agendaman
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    c/o ep/not trying to ridicule you at all ep but/i am a mathenatician msc./trust me these formulas wont work/
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  4. 12-21-11 03:34 PM #4
    EaglesPhan36
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    In short, the formula does not decide a pick. It simply provides the # of possessions to help you line that up with the O/U set for the 2nd half. In the end, still the bettors job to decide if there is an edge.
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  5. 12-21-11 03:57 PM #5
    agendaman
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    c/o ep/go for it and see/there always has to be a math. correlation btwn. money out vs. money coming in right/be selective on your picks/units/money management/never trust a lock/i played horses for 28 yrs. made/lost thousands/let us know how its working ok ep/gl oh just this one/chargers are 24-2 since 2006 in december/will beat lions sun.
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  6. 12-21-11 08:18 PM #6
    EaglesPhan36
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    [2nd Half] Grizzlies-Hornets Over 95 [-110]
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  7. 12-21-11 08:52 PM #7
    EaglesPhan36
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    Looks like a big dud on this one. Will try again if situation warrants for the Portland-Utah game. Hopefully better results.
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  8. 12-21-11 09:17 PM #8
    EaglesPhan36
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    [2nd Half] Portland-Utah Over 97 [-110]
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  9. 12-21-11 09:59 PM #9
    EaglesPhan36
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    Every game tonight has gone under for the 2nd half. Maybe a bad night to start this. Looks like the reserves all played heavier minutes tonight. Will wait until the regular season begins to go ahead and see if there is a more normal flow to the games.
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  10. 12-22-11 08:13 AM #10
    EasyPicks
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    the MIA x ORL game went Over by half point in the 2nd Half!!
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  11. 12-26-11 08:19 PM #11
    EaglesPhan36
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    Alright, let's try it in the regular season.

    Thunder-Timberwolves Over 101 [-110]
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  12. 12-26-11 08:25 PM #12
    jimmy007oc
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    man, i tested the 5 early games today, it's 1-3, 1 is pending
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  13. 12-26-11 08:27 PM #13
    bmansell33
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    I like it i see second half being around 112 combined
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  14. 12-26-11 08:35 PM #14
    jimmy007oc
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    alright, it's 2-3 for the 1st 5 games.
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  15. 12-26-11 09:20 PM #15
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well I don't think you need to use it for every game, not ever game will have a good edge to it. Trying to apply it to the ones where there seems to be a good edge. We'll see how it goes.

    Hornets-Suns Under 94.5 [-110]
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  16. 12-26-11 10:17 PM #16
    EaglesPhan36
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    Lakers-Kings Under 96 [-110]
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  17. 12-26-11 10:43 PM #17
    EaglesPhan36
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    Bulls-Warriors Over 94 [-110]

    We'll see how this ends up. First two won. Lakers-Kings pretty iffy.
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  18. 12-26-11 10:51 PM #18
    AceKingHigh
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Bulls-Warriors Over 94 [-110] We'll see how this ends up. First two won. Lakers-Kings pretty iffy.
    Hopefully it wins! I'm on it too at 94.5
    and I said to myself to try and stay away from 2H bets better win this!
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  19. 12-26-11 11:24 PM #19
    AceKingHigh
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    looks like a loser O_o better luck next time...
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  20. 12-26-11 11:57 PM #20
    AceKingHigh
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    'fade formula'
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  21. 12-27-11 08:13 AM #21
    EaglesPhan36
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    2-2 yesterday, only the Lakers-Kings one didn't pan out by a wide margin [6 pts]. Bulls-Warriors would have at least pushed if the Warriors didn't choke on the FT line in the last two minutes. They missed four. They make two of those, the total pushes.

    All four plays fell into the guidelines for good plays though. The OVER tries set numbers for the 2nd halves that were 4-5 possessions less than what the 1st half yielded and the UNDER tries had numbers set for the 2nd halves that were 3-5 possessions more than the 1st half.

    We'll see how this plays out. As I said before, not every half time line should be a play - you have to find the ones that fit best like yesterday and there's still the human element at the end of the day. Will keep my eyes open tonight.

    Regular Season Record: 2-2 [-0.20]
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  22. 12-27-11 08:34 PM #22
    EaglesPhan36
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    12.27.11

    Celtics-Heat Over 94 [-110]
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  23. 12-27-11 10:09 PM #23
    EaglesPhan36
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    Kings-Trail Blazers Under 97 [-110]
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  24. 12-27-11 10:57 PM #24
    DonWon
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    Lakers half?
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  25. 12-27-11 11:01 PM #25
    EaglesPhan36
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    Jazz-Lakers Under 93.5 [-110]
    This is like the Lakers last night though where it went over, but the formula points to under, so I ride with it.
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  26. 12-27-11 11:09 PM #26
    DonWon
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    I was leaning over but I'm wit you
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  27. 12-28-11 05:21 AM #27
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well the Lakers game again slips over. Maybe I need to ban the Lakers from the formula.


    2-1 overall, so I'll take it.

    Regular Season Record: 4-3 [+0.70]
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  28. 12-28-11 07:48 PM #28
    EaglesPhan36
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    12.28.11

    Hawks-Wizards Over 92.5 [-110]
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  29. 12-28-11 08:26 PM #29
    Pick'nParlays
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    EP. I like Montay Ellis over 24 points tonight

    thougts?
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  30. 12-28-11 08:34 PM #30
    EaglesPhan36
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    Haven't really looked at props much early on, so no opinion for ya there.
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  31. 12-28-11 09:14 PM #31
    EaglesPhan36
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    76ers-Suns Under 97.5 [-110]
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  32. 12-28-11 10:46 PM #32
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well hasn't worked tonight, but this one falls into the pattern as well.

    Knicks-Warriors Under 103 [-110]
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  33. 12-28-11 10:49 PM #33
    bringdownthehous
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Well hasn't worked tonight, but this one falls into the pattern as well.

    Knicks-Warriors Under 103 [-110]
    EP this a play for u?
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  34. 12-29-11 12:14 AM #34
    BB_Mariners
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Well hasn't worked tonight, but this one falls into the pattern as well.

    Knicks-Warriors Under 103 [-110]
    I tailed you on this one, good call.
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  35. 12-29-11 07:12 AM #35
    EaglesPhan36
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    Regular Season Record: 5-5 [-0.50]
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