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Lakers -4 is a really good bet tonight. The Mavs are on a 5 game win streak, but they are very overvalued as all 5 of their opponents are pretty weak. Furthermore, the Lakers are 8-1 at home and look for Kobe to continue dominating after that loss to the Clippers. The lakers point differential on the season is only +4 overall, but it is much higher at home.
Lakers have a +10 point differential at home this season
I fully agreed with this assessment, but...... somehow, they come out and play smaller diameter hoops? I never saw such poor shooting and execution by two elite NBA teams since the Pat Riley Miami heat defense, defense, defense days. Fourth quarter was a bit better, but ... and that is a big but....Originally Posted by ChiCubs825
though loss
The Lakers played absolutely awful, but I felt like they had about a 65-70% chance of covering that spread..can't win em all but it was still the right bet.
John,
What do you think about Houston -7.5 at home against Detroit tonight?
Seems like a pretty strong bet considering how undervalued the Rockets are with their tough schedule thus far, and how awful the Pistons have been playing, especially on the road.
NO PLAYS for tonight. Got one in College Hoop
5* graded play on the Washington Wizards as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 65-33 ATS for 66% winners since 1996. Play against favorites that are solid 3-point shooting teams making >=36.5% of their shots and now facing a poor 3- point shooting defense allowing >=36.5% shooting and is an average rebounding team posting a +/-3 rebound per game differential facing a struggling rebounding team getting <=5.5 fewer rebounds per game than opponent. What this system describes is a strong team playing a weak team at home and that the line consistently gets exaggerated by the public. This is a pure contrarian play and one that the public is squarely on Oklahoma City. Of course, the public does not lose all the time, but when they are showing a bit of irrational exuberance and my model shows that the ‘ugly’ dog has a high probability of making the game close, it makes for a solid opportunity to wager. Given this situation I also recommend an optional 2* Money Line play on Washington. Hard to take all of this in, of course, but that is the call for this game. Take Washington.
Last edited by John Ryan; 01-19-12 at 06:03 AM.
I didn't even think the Wizards had a chance at winning tonight, that would be one hell of a win by them if they can pull it off!
yeah nice pick john, got +11 and +700 ML
too bad NBA is the sport I bet the least on
Wow, great pick John!
Hey John,
Your reasoning behind the Washington game was very informative. I hope that you'll post some more about how you cap the games and the methodologies used in the process (database, simulator, probability, systems ect.) I know developing all this must have been extremely time-consuming and I fully understand if that's something you don't wish to share.
Great pick. Didn't get the ML but tailed you on +11
amazing on that wash.....to bad i went the wrong way
John has an NHL pick. NY Rangers -138
Thanks to everyone for our Washington Wizards "CONTRARIAN' Play. I have to admit that there is no better feeling in sports wagering than when you catch one of these shockers. Makes you feel smart for a day . ha ha h a..
Speaking fo which, I do have a 5* NHl play on the Rangers - report on the site and
a 5* on the Lakers when they take on the Heat tonight on TNT.
5* graded play on the Lakers as they take on the Heat in a big showdown on TNT set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will lose this game by five or fewer points. I also think they are in a strong position to win this game. Most fans and NBA bettors have written the Lakers off and the dynasty is over. As long as a player named Kobe is playing on that team, they will always have a solid shot at winning another World Title. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-10 ATS for 76% winners since 2006. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less and now facing an opponent after scoring 100 points or more two straight games. Of the 42 plays made by this system, 21 of them, or 50%, have covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my strong belief that the Lakers can win this game. Of course, if the Lakers do win the media will point to the fact that Wade was out and Lebrun had some sort of ‘cold’, but Maim has lost tow of their last three games. They are just 2-12 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last two seasons. Take the Lakers.
BOL to you on this one John, but I gotta go with Miami here. The Lakers are 1-4 on the road with their only win coming in OT at Utah. Their 4 loses have come at Sac (by 9), Den (9), Port (9) and the Clippers (8). Miami's Offense is pretty good even without Wade in the lineup..
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 01-19-12 at 06:49 PM.
Can't debate what you point out.. But the Heat are not the Kings, and this is a national stage, where we have seen Kobe go off so many times. The sim is the reason I have and am making this wager though.. but, my opinion, is that Kobe will go big tonight.
10-11 ATS with 5* plays, 1-1 ATS with 10* plays and 2* ML plays 1-0 for +7.00 units per one unit wagered. No 20* plays yet, but there will be. Good luck tonight.
As long as the Lakers can keep the pace down and the game in the low 90s, they'll cover/win.
Miami has been running all season, will be interesting to see how Brown combats that.
I am hearing that several Heat players have the 'bug' - not just Labron.. However, don'ty get too excited, as I always recall Michael Jordan going off at the Boston garden for 62 points and had 102 degree temp prior to taking the court for warmups. Never the less, illness is a part of the game and many times we don't ever know, who was ailing till after the game; unless the name is Kobe, Wade, Lebron, and the cast of our Super Stars. Lakers are and will remain a 5* play for tonight. I am taking the 5 1/2 points -110 now.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/s...ulike-symptoms
MIAMI -- After missing the morning shootaround with flulike symptoms, Miami Heat forward LeBron James will play Thursday night against the Los Angeles Lakers.
James has been bothered by a cold all week. Already without Dwyane Wade because of an ankle injury, the Heat wanted to give James some extra time to rest so they sent him home early Thursday morning.
The Heat, who are 4-0 this season without Wade, also activated center Eddy Curry for the first time this season. Curry hasn't played in a game in two seasons.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said earlier Thursday that James would be a game-time decision.
"He didn't feel good last night," Spolestra said. "That bug has been going around."
James was one of several Heat players who got sick following Miami's five-game road trip, which ended last week. He battled through it during Tuesday's victory over the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 33 points, though he started the game 1-of-7 shooting before settling in. James was able to practice with the team Wednesday.
James Jones is expected to start in Wade's place.
Mike Miller, who went 6-of-6 on 3-pointers in his first game of the season Tuesday, is expected to play after spraining his ankle in the game.
Meanwhile, the Lakers -- and James' former coach -- fully expected him to play.
"When you talk about great players like him, those guys, even though they're sick or a little injured or whatever, they find a way to perform at a high level," Lakers coach Mike Brown, one of James' former coaches with the Cleveland Cavaliers, said Thursday afternoon. "I don't think it's any different for LeBron."
With James is in the lineup, the game will feature the NBA's top two scorers this season -- Kobe Bryant at 30.8 points per game and James at 29.8.
Head-to-head, James and Bryant have remarkably similar numbers. In the past 11 meetings, James is averaging 27.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7 assists, while Bryant is putting up 28.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists.
There is one significant difference in that span: James' teams have gone 9-2 against the Lakers.
Brian Windhorst covers the Heat for ESPN.com. Information from The Associated Press was included in this report.
Follow Brian Windhorst on Twitter: @WindhorstESPN
John I don't think its fair to include the 2* as part of your official record. While it was an excellent call and one you strongly recommended to take, you did not make it an official play. If you had lost I don't think you would have added that to the record. With that said , I tailed you all year in NFL and also am tailing you NBA. BOL sir
5* Washington + 7 1/2 -110 playing Denver
5* Minnesota + 5 1/2 playing the Clippers
BOL.. 20* release on the NFL thread with research on the front page.
Good call yesterday on both plays....that minn game was an exciting one to watch, well the last few mins of it. Way to get back on track and let's see more winners today
when do you plan on posting your plays? I know you said you usually try to shoot around 4pm est.
There was nothing yesterday.
5* play on Milwaukee +9 1/2 playing the Heat
If is not too much to ask, please inform us when there are no plays for a particular day. The earlier the better. Thank You.
Don't forget he's working hard and giving us these picks for free!
You serious?
In related news, 46-41 Milwaukee at half.
not trying to rub people the wrong way, just asking him to simply post if there is no plays for that day. I appreciate all the insight and picks you supply us John.
Started a new thread: Basically a mailbag where you can ask me any question about anything sports related...
Here is the link: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...l#post13405485
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