After getting the Utah 1st QTR pick yesterday I decided to analyse the 1ST QTR stats and break them down to find out what I was missing. On paper, Utah winning 55% of 1st QTR's vs the second worst 1st QTR team sounds good, right? Wrong. After looking at these stats deeper it became clear Utah's high 1st QTR win ration is mainly due to their home record. On the Road they flop, big time.
This match-up below shows what I mean about how overall Quarter stats can be misleading.
76ers 1st QTR @ -1.5
The Suns-76'ers game 1st QTR stats look tight overall, 76'ers winning 58% Phoenix 52% of theirs. However, again when we break these figures down it becomes clear Phoenix won most these 1st QTR's at home and that their away 1st QTR record stinks.
76ers Last 5 1st QTR results @ Home: Win Heat. Win Pacers. Lost Celtics!. Drew Nets. Won Wizards.
Suns Last 5 1st QTR results Away: Draw @ Pistons. Lost @ Warriors!. Lost @ Wizards!. Won @ Atlanta. Lost @ Bobcats
If we break down these stats down another level.
76ers lost their only 1st QTR in the past 5 games to Boston Celtics, Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA aswell as one of the best 1st QTR teams stats wise so we must take this into consideration.
Philli have 2 straight Wins, are 14-9 @ Home and the 2 games they lost at home in the last 5 have only been by 1 point 2 Celtics and 2 points to Bucks, in both these games they won atleast one quarter.
On the opposite side of the spectrum we have the Suns. They have lost 1st QTR's to the two worst 1st QTR teams Wizards and Warriors. They are 9-13 in games on the road, HOWEVER, they are on a 2 game winning streak like the 76ers and have one on their home turf before.
This could be a tight game but I see value in the 1st QTR bet for Philli, they should come into the game and try to please the home crowd. They have the phychological advantage, lets hope they don't CHOKE
It would be great if we could do a spreadsheet looking at team QTR's based on Home and Away records, it gives a better picture and we can pick up trends of strong Home or Road teams.
Looks great on paper, Houston have won 65% of their 1st QTRs, are 4th best in the NBA with this stat in contrast to Bucks down at 41%. However, once again when we look at Home/Away performances serious cracks start appearing!
Houston last 5 Away 1st QTRs: Draw @ Grizzlies. Lost @ Knicks. Won @ Pistons. Won @Pacers. Draw @ Kings
Bucks last 5 1st QTR's @ Home: Lost Detriot. Win Atlanta. Win Timberwolves. Lost Kings. Lost Dallas
Houston is plain unpredictable on the road in the 1st QTR's, Bucks are pretty bad and looking worse with their injury problems.
Houston look to be the play but they're so unpredictable I just stay away from this team.
76'ers seem to be just as good, actually even better away than at home, that's an interesting stat to know when 76'ers are on the road if we find a bad home 1st QTR team.
Overall this year 76'ers seem to be doing very well early on.
Suns show a trend of having better Home results to Away results.
ye lol i used this too last time when kings @ suns kings were 7-0 SU (wins over CLE, BOS) 1st qtr and Suns 0-6 SU 1st qtr of the last 7/6 games but suns beat the kings in the 1st qtr by 21....
Anything can happen Dennis, 76'ers could end up getting trashed but I'd just say, Kings 1st QTR record is one of the worst in the NBA at 41%, Suns is higher at 52%, just looking at that Suns would be the stronger pick.
However, here we have 76'ers who have a better overall record, a good home record and Suns a not so good away record.
Ofcourse this may just be worthless come the game but I just wanna it out if it works great if it doesn't at least I tried
That Houston 1st QTR was a sucker bet, I'm sure the bookies made a stupid amount of money on those betting 1st QTR on them. They just proved what I researched, unpredictable and sometimes very poor on the road on road, especially in the last few 1st QTR's.
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76ers 1st QTR @ -1.5 - Have Your Say
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keep up the good work kara
