Leans for Thursday 3/19/09

[pho3nix32]

it seems that our friend CK is on the road, so im gonna start this thread for him.

for my selection, im gonna try use this spreadsheet thing...



Both teams dont play defense. Kobe scored 11 points in his last outing. Look for both teams to torch the scoreboard tomorrow.

Let the handicapping begin guys

[texhooper]

man, that's a great pick cousin!!!! one of my favorites. should memphis not do the trick and cover my three bets on them, i'm loading up on that shit. already decided it, and now i like it even more.

[The_Kid]

Not many NBA games on tap, but the madness finally begins tomorrow. I already booked 1H Memphis -11.5 and Memphis -20 for the game. I feel CSUN just doesn't have the horses to compete with the big boys. Depending on what Memphis does, I have my eye on a lot of other plays that I like. Of course, I like Cleveland against the Blazers. Will look at the 1Q of that game too once it comes out.

[texhooper]

my full card in the nba will probably look something like this:

lakers 1st q
lakers/warriors over 2,905,690 (might go a little heavier on this)
cavs 1st q (might go a little heavier on this...actually, i can almost guarantee it on this one)
cavs -9.5

and i bet the hawks cover their spread because no one's playing that one. and the mavs suck on the road and in atl. might put some change on that one depending on how the day shakes out.

almost forgot, i have already locked in:

memphis -19.5
memphis/csn under 131.5
4 pt teaser= memphis -15.5/under135.5

and i have no one sitting behind me at work anymore due to a restructuring of the floor. want to take any wagers on how productive i am from 11:30-1:30 cst?

good luck everyone.

man, i can't wait to get home from work tomorrow. which reminds me, i'm going to bed, ****ers!!

good luck.

[BrandonLaz]

Well I have been out of town and I have been making all my plays over my phone so I haven't been posting on here. Pretty good 7 days so far only one losing day in there. I would like to give a shoutout to pho3 played an under off of you which cashed for me thank you. I am a Big Ten homer I won't lie that is why my largest play is not on them, but I do have 3 plays out of 5 on Big Ten teams so be careful

Northern Iowa vs Purdue (-8.0)

Northern Iowa should be at least double digit dogs here against a Purdue squad that is very solid especially on the defensive side of the ball only giving up 59.1 ppg. Purdue like the rest of the Big Ten is not the favorite of the public to bet on. In this game the oddsmakers are taking full advantage of that as they know everyone will be on Northern Iowa. Don't get sucked in by the semi-large line when it should be much higher in all honesty. When playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons Purdue is 27-13 ATS, and after a conference game over the last 3 seasons they are 37-19. Northern Iowa looks good thanks to their weak conference, but when you actually look at there record in non-conference games they are only 2-6 ATS. Take Purdue in this spot as they win the game with ease today.

Purdue -8 (Medium Wager)

VA Commonwealth vs UCLA (-7.5)

VA Commonwealth is picked by most people to win this game outright. It is to bad the public is flat out wrong today. Let me tell you when the public is strongly leaning a certain way the oddsmakers are not going to make a mistake. This is a trap all the way from start to finish. UCLA would never be put as a 7.5 favorite if it was not the play here. EVERYBODY and I mean EVERYBODY is loading up there money on VA Commonwealth tomorrow. When the total is 130 to 139.5 VA Commonwealth is 4-9 ATS, when playing against a team with a winning record they are 7-11 ATS, and after allowing 60 points or less they are 5-9 ATS. UCLA has way to much talent and will put it all out on the table today to prove the nation wrong. Enjoy the game as everyone else is crying in their beer mugs as UCLA dominates the game from start to finish.

UCLA -7.5 (LARGEST PLAY)

Michigan Wolverines (+5) vs Clemson

The Michigan Wolverines in non-conference games are an amazing 6-1 ATS. This is including two huge wins against Duke and UCLA. Clemson has come into this game having lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS. They look nothing like the team that started out 16-0 SU. The Tigers have really lost a step defensively, as they’ve surrendered 78.4 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting during their 1-4 slump. They’ve also given up 80.3 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road this season. (Michigan, meanwhile, gives up just 63.3 ppg overall, 60.8 ppg at neutral sites and 61.4 ppg in its last five.) It’s tough to ignore Purnell’s 0-4 SU record in the Tournament, including last year’s 75-69 one-and-done loss to Villanova as a six-point favorite. By comparison, Michigan coach John Beilein, who headed up West Virginia before coming to Ann Arbor prior to last season, is 6-4 in four trips to the Big Dance. Take the points with the underdog as Michigan should steal the outright win today and they will cover the spread with ease.

Michigan Wolverines (Medium Wager)

Western Kentucky vs Illinois (-4.5)

Illinois is a team that many are picking to lose this game in a huge upset. In all neutral court games Illinois is 4-1 ATS. Western Kentucky has been playing great basketball right now, but today they meet up with an Illinois squad who has been hearing they are one of the most likely upsets of the Big Dance. This just adds fuel to the fire for a team trying to prove they are legit and a threat. They also play in the Big Ten who I believe to be the most underrated conference in the tournament. This is just not enough points for Western Kentucky to dogs by here as Illinois wins this game by at least 8 points.

Illinois -4.5 (Medium Wager)

Minnesota (+4) vs Texas

The Golden Gophers are on a strange streak that fits into play for us right here. Currently they are on a run where they win one game and lose one game. This fits in well right here as there last game was a loss. Memphis plays great in all neutral court games going 2-1 ATS. Like the rest of the Big Ten in non-conference games they are 5-2 ATS. They are playing a Texas team today that couldn't even beat the Razorback. When the total is 120 to 129.5 they are 1-5 ATS, and over the last 3 seasons they are 1-6 when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Minnesota has the coach to take a team deep into the postseason and today they will get the job done against an overrated Texas squad.

Minnesota +4 (Small Wager)

[pho3nix32]

Well I have been out of town and I have been making all my plays over my phone so I haven't been posting on here. Pretty good 7 days so far only one losing day in there. I would like to give a shoutout to pho3 played an under off of you which cashed for me thank you. I am a Big Ten homer I won't lie that is why my largest play is not on them, but I do have 3 plays out of 5 on Big Ten teams so be careful

i should start tailing you bro. march has not been good to me

you should also post this stuff in dex's thread. some good stuff you have here.

[Vincepcion]

I know GS is nuts offensively but they don't have the same firepower on the road, correct? I could be wrong here. Also Ariza is a solid defender and will be all over Jax. I dunno, 233 is a lot of points, probably a no play for me but I don't think you can be really confident in it. JMO.

[King_Bookie]

Hmm.... after a relatively easy night for me, tomorrow's game looks a bit tough. Dallas has defeated some quality teams on the road but has a bad reputation of sputtering road games. GS has a nice +13 advantage over the lakers and with the way the lakers are playing now, I won't be surprised if GS wins a squeaker. Cleveland looks to extend its devastating home streak in the NBA but 9.5 is a bit too much for the blazers. I'll post my analysis later. 233.5 is achievable, though a bit more difficult that yesterday when some doubters said yesterday that high noon won't happen in Phoenix against Philly.

EARLY LEANS:

DAL @ ATL -> ATL-6
POR @ CLE -> POR+9.5
GS @ LA -> GS +13

DAL @ ATL Over 196.5
POR @ CLE Under 186
GS @ LA Over 9000

[Dexter]

thur 3/19-

the blazers will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights coming off a win wed night vs the pacers. the cavs will be rested off a home win vs orlando. port has been dreadful all year on the road, and playing in cleav has never been good to them. the cavs are 5-0 ats the last 5 home games vs port, winning all 5 of those games by an avg margin of 14ppg. projected line of -8. this is the strongest game ive seen since boston at home over the suns.

-cavs (huge)

[Dexter]

Guys - lets try and use the thread i created in the ncaa thread for our college discussions....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping-64/2009-ncaa-dog-tracker-158020-p2.html

[peterpan19]

ok plays for today, btw somehow mia saved me yesterday... but the knicks, wont bet on them for the rest of the season and Chi is hot...

ATL -6
what should I say here.... ATL is hot, maybe the hottest team right now in the whole league ... Dallas cant even even cover an easy spread at home against Det, hell no.... plus ATL has revenge on their minds after an early season loss against the mavs...plus ATL is 4-1 ats vs dallas... even if the mavs played better as of late ... give me the hot vs the not so hot team... plus its a thursday game ... atl should crush dallas here

cle -9.5
portland come off a blowout win against the Pacers... but now they face a rested cleveland team, thats still winning but thats in a small ATS slump right now only going 1-4... but cleveland just owns Portland as they are 5-0 SU and ats... this game should get ugly soon, so I will also put some money on the 1st qtr here ... I see something like an 100-85 win for the Cavs tonight

[repski]

Brandon,

nice cappin.....one thing on VCU....the line opened @ -10...the sharps hit it quickly on Sun down to -7.

I have been charting this on my own...just an observation.

[Dexter]

fri 3/20-

the pistons are in desperate need of a win as they sit on a 3 game losing streak - they played the rockets and mavs very tough on the road, and are set up to hammer the clippers back at the palace. detroit is 4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs the clips, winning all 5 by 15ppg. projected line of -11.5

-pistons (big)
_______________
the nuggets are coming off a road win in memphis in which they made a great 4qtr comeback for the win. they catch one of the worst teams in the league right now back at home - whos only chance in this one is via the back door late. denver is 3-1 ats the last 4 home games vs the wiz, winning 3 of those by an avg of 16ppg. projected line of -14

-nuggets (big)
_______________

[RoagBettor]

My big 3 team/8 pt teaser play is:

Cleveland -1.5
Lakers -5.5
Kansas -2

[pho3nix32]

fri 3/20-

the pistons are in desperate need of a win as they sit on a 3 game losing streak - they played the rockets and mavs very tough on the road, and are set up to hammer the clippers back at the palace. detroit is 4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs the clips, winning all 5 by 15ppg. projected line of -11.5

-pistons (big)
_______________
the nuggets are coming off a road win in memphis in which they made a great 4qtr comeback for the win. they catch one of the worst teams in the league right now back at home - whos only chance in this one is via the back door late. denver is 3-1 ats the last 4 home games vs the wiz, winning 3 of those by an avg of 16ppg. projected line of -14

-nuggets (big)
_______________

huge is larger than big?

denver f#ck#rs again.....im gonna make you win this play dex, i wont touch the game

[RoagBettor]

LOL - maybe we need to clarify the terminology?

HUMONGOUS
HUGE
HEAVY
BIG

?

[Dexter]

huge is larger than big?

denver f#ck#rs again.....im gonna make you win this play dex, i wont touch the game

yes sir....this is the biggest nba bet im gonna make all year. big is usually 2x-5x....this one im gonna go 10x.

[solobass]

dex we agreed on a play last night, the magic and wow what a cash that one was! you totally got hoed out on utah the other night though.

watch out for illinois, they do have a 7 footer but are really offensively challenged and are ripe for the picking. today is the day i wait for all year in ncaa bb! nothing beats the first 2 days in my opinion.

[solobass]

also thanks to the almighty and merciful CK, the grizz was a heck of a call last night!

[darkenergy]

I think market rally is out of gas, tomorrow profit taken is add more fuel to the fire.
Time to short financial again for the next few days. I got in FAZ 24.75 this morning, expect it could get up around 35+ tomorrow. SKF also good.
Always put a tight stop as this market is extremely violent. Win or loss DO NOT hold it over the weekend.

[NBA Hero]

lots of unjury on port.

aldridge might be out. batum will not play. who can they put in place of aldridge? frye right, and prizy will play extended mins against pesky verajao. but can cavs cover? will they take the game seriously????

can atl extend their streak, leaning on this game big time

[solobass]

I think market rally is out of gas, tomorrow profit taken is add more fuel to the fire.
Time to short financial again for the next few days. I got in FAZ 24.75 this morning, expect it could get up around 35+ tomorrow. SKF also good.
Always put a tight stop as this market is extremely violent. Win or loss DO NOT hold it over the weekend.

agree we are out of gas on this rally.....live to fight another day....

[repski]

ATL -6

-ATL is 6-0 ATS on this home stand
-ATL is 9-0 ATS @ home in the last 9 overall
-ATS is 7-0 ATS their last 7 vs. teams with a SU winning record
-ATL is 6 of their last 6 vs teams with a losing road record,
-ATL is 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a favorite,
-ATL is 5-0 ATS their last 5 games played on 1 days rest
-ATL is 5-0 ATS their last 5 vs. the Western conference

[RoagBettor]

rep, I think it means they are due for a loss either SU or ATS. That's way too hot to continue!

[Dexter]

booked-

cavs -9.5 (10x)

[NBA Hero]

against dal roag?

bibby havent been his old self but defense and pride have been feeding the hawks at home

[solobass]

anyone know what happened to gasol's finger last night he is listed as probable tonight against the warriors. that one has the potential to kill a good cap to this game with such a large line.

[coolmil]

SEND OUT THE SCOUTS FOR CK!!!!!

[repski]

rep, I think it means they are due for a loss either SU or ATS. That's way too hot to continue!

agreed...but Mav's are not a great road team, especially minus Howard.

right now the RLM is in ATL favor...line up from-5.5 to -6 with 60% on DAL

[repski]

SEND OUT THE SCOUTS FOR CK!!!!!

he's in Reno...don't expect much posting..

[RoagBettor]

I'm not saying it's the wrong play, I just hate to bet something so late in a streak, been burned too many times. But good luck to you guys on it.

[cocknocker]

SEND OUT THE SCOUTS FOR CK!!!!!

My plays willbe in Dexter's Dog Tracker NCAA thread for the next few days. As far as the NBA is concerned, NO PLAYS today until further notice.

[cocknocker]

BTW the Hawks are the wrong call. Dallas is the correct call on this game.

[solobass]

BTW the Hawks are the wrong call. Dallas is the correct call on this game.

agreed, just booked

Mavs +6

[Dexter]

man, you know its a big day when your book opens at 10am