Point Spread is Created with Trying to Beat the Wise Guys!!!

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game. The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit. A rule of thought "follow the money" The most important thing that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. I live in Las Vegas and alive and well, making my bets at Sports Book at Caesars Palace Las Vegas. That's why I am 5-0 For NBA Championship games. All my threads are posted with "$Wins$" taking and laying points in SBR sports forum NBA if you care to check.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS... Look for my threads this fall for NFL[ 2013 season of NFL including play-offs and super bowl was 76% 6 out 8 in play-offs and the Superbowl all in the money. All my threads and predictions are posted with SRB sports forum NFL. Good luck all!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KVB]

It's amazing that such a basic concept is so misunderstood among those who wager.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I agree KVB

[JR007]

not always, books do take positions on certain games

[KVB]

not always, books do take positions on certain games

Very true. It's impossible to have a game perfectly balanced and more often than not the bookmaker needs not equal balance but enough action to be profitable. Larger books can, and almost always do, take a position on a game. Like The Hat said, the book knows the public will give it back eventually.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Very true. It's impossible to have a game perfectly balanced and more often than not the bookmaker needs not equal balance but enough action to be profitable. Larger books can, and almost always do, take a position on a game. Like The Hat said, the book knows the public will give it back eventually.

My friend you are only as strong as your bankroll going against books& bookmakers because they have more money then you do. You have to remember KVB when wagering that the juice will eat you up, if you lose too too many bets, all you are doing is getting even.... weren't you even when you walked up to betting window at book before you made your bet KVB??? Very best of luck to you KVB and thanks for your comment.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄTMr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[BCC585]

Wise words Harry.
Have any insight on totals?

[BarstoolProphet]

Great writeup, yet now take that and find an edge. Most can not sustain that over a period of time.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[QUOTE=BCC585;22079793]Wise words Harry.
Have any insight on totals? No BCC585 I do not bet total points. My betting strategy is Press one time on 2nd win and will go back to the Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use.

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[KVB]

My friend you are only as strong as your bankroll going against books& bookmakers because they have more money then you do. You have to remember KVB when wagering that the juice will eat you up, if you lose too too many bets, all you are doing is getting even.... weren't you even when you walked up to betting window at book before you made your bet KVB??? Very best of luck to you KVB and thanks for your comment.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄTMr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

Let's not forget that it the one only pays the juice when there is a win. Losing bets simply lose the bets. It's the winning bets that are deducted the juice on payout. With a higher win percentage , you will pay a higher percent of vigorish. A 100% percent winner at -110 will consistently pay 9.1% vigorish while a 50% bettor at -110 will be paying 4.55%.
Only winners pay the vigorish, losers just lose their bets. This is why price matters so much to a winning bettor...but I think you know that.

As far as being even before walking to the window, a gambler once told me "I hope I break even today, I need the money."

[SpreadSniper]

pardon my ignorance - but can you explain "push bet".... I think I get it.... 2 bet series.... 1st bet wins, total amount on 1st bet (bet and winnings) are placed on a 2nd bet?

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

pardon my ignorance - but can you explain "push bet".... I think I get it.... 2 bet series.... 1st bet wins, total amount on 1st bet (bet and winnings) are placed on a 2nd bet?

Yes Spreadsniper, just like I played NBA series, I pressed 2 out of 5 games won 5-0. if you win press on 2 bet series, if you lose you go back to original bet, if you push, its not win, so you go back to original bet. Betting strategy is your doubling your win!!! example you bet 10 games in NFL, you catch a string of 4 wins, and lose lets say 5 with win in between at $100.00 pop, you win 2 presses, your 1st win $100 goes to $200, so 2nd win is $400 on the string. Let's say you win one game and lose another in sequence, you go back to the original bet, Money Management my friend does not necessary work if your handicapping betting strategy is losing more bets that you win and also win/lose/win/lose situation in the series. I hope SpreadSniper that I explained so you could understand//// Best of luck to you my friend

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Let's not forget that it the one only pays the juice when there is a win. Losing bets simply lose the bets. It's the winning bets that are deducted the juice on payout. With a higher win percentage , you will pay a higher percent of vigorish. A 100% percent winner at -110 will consistently pay 9.1% vigorish while a 50% bettor at -110 will be paying 4.55%.
Only winners pay the vigorish, losers just lose their bets. This is why price matters so much to a winning bettor...but I think you know that.

As far as being even before walking to the window, a gambler once told me "I hope I break even today, I need the money."

That is funny walking up to window !!!!Very Good KVB!!! Like player screaming ""I got even""" I got even !!!! well weren't you even when you walked up to the sports book window//LOL LOL!!!

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Square bettors love to pound the favorite while sharp bettors would simply wait for bookmakers to adjust their odds before taking the underdog at an artificially inflated price. Once oddsmakers post the opening line, sharps and recreational bettor action will move the line in one direction or the other throughout the week. Oddsmakers may use formulas, simulations or other statistics based programs to help them create these numbers, in addition to personal observations. However, one must remember that at the core, the odds are not decided by a computer, but instead are primarily man made.Since they are still primarily decided by the human element, there will certainly be “mistakes” in the lines that will be pounced on by “sharp” bettors. These experienced high-volume handicappers shape the line movement more than any other group of bettors, including the large number of recreational bettors, who are known collectively in bookmaking circles as “squares". However, line moves can happen for a variety of reasons other than just betting action. Changes in weather, coaching decisions, such as who will start at quarterback and injury concerns are all possible reasons for a change in the line. While in some cases, bookmakers may be privy to insider information about an NFL game, they usually get news just as fast as everyone else but are constantly plugged into the newsfeed. Their goal is to move the odds before the masses and wiseguys act on this information.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

There are generally two types of sports gamblers. There are those who pick up the schedule and look at the point spreads for each game and say, "Eight points are too many, I'm betting the underdog," or there are those who will pick up the schedule and compare the point spreads to their own numbers and say, "This team is favored by eight points, yet I only have them winning by three, so I'll bet the underdog." Simply stated, power ratings are numbers that show the projected disparity between teams in points from a mathematical perspective. While the point spread has to factor in public opinion, power ratings do not, and for that reason alone, should be more accurate than the point spread more times than not. The fact that most successful sports bettors will most definitely fall into the second category, tells you all you need to know whether it's worth your time and effort to keep power ratings for football and basketball. J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] has determined himself as the best NFL & NBA sports handicapper in the country by his power rating considered the best 80% true. My friends nobody,I mean nobody has a power rating like his. A very important tool I use in betting the NFL& NBA. My record speaks for itself ****[all my threads and predictions are posted with SBR Sports Forum if you care to check]****.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[KVB]

There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time.
Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a place like Pinnacle, I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and oddsmakers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
Any thoughts Hat?

[KVB]

The fact that most successful sports bettors will most definitely fall into the second category, tells you all you need to know whether it's worth your time and effort to keep power ratings for football and basketball.

This is true indeed. And it's not just the power ratings, it's how you use them. I would advise any bettor to learn how create his own line.
And also be able to come up with the same line as Vegas. Being able to do these two things will go a long way towards winning.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

This is true indeed. And it's not just the power ratings, it's how you use them. I would advise any bettor to learn how create his own line.
And also be able to come up with the same line as Vegas. Being able to do these two things will go a long way towards winning.

Great Reply KVB

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time.
Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a place like Pinnacle, I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and oddsmakers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
Any thoughts Hat?

Outstanding writeup I Tip My Hat To You

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Originally Posted by KVB
There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time.
Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a place like Pinnacle, I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and oddsmakers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
Any thoughts Hat? Something to Consider KVB!!!! Assuming that the "juice" (the interest or vig) is 10% (i.e. you must wager $110 to win $100) you must win 11 out of 21 bets to break even, or 52.4%. This gives the house an edge of 4.5%. Hitting 11 out of 21 bets may sound easy to do, but if you have been wagering for some time now like me you know this is not. The average bettor actually picks below 50%. The difference between 50% and 60% does not sound extreme, but over the NFL season it could cost you difference between losing money and making a profit KVB. Many handicappers claim to be "hitting 80% during season" but I can guarantee that they can not do this on a consistent basis and over the long term. In 2013 season in NFL Bye Week Picks were 57% including 65% (11-6) on the 4* and 5* picks making it a very prosperous year! If you could consistently pick 55% you will significantly increase your original investment. Consistently picking 60% is like batting .400 in Major League Baseball KVB..
Very Good Luck To You My Friend
Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS ....The Stat's are from J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true.

[Flagrant1]

Luv your threads and insight, HarrytheHat. I tip my cap to you young man.

[KVB]

Wow, I just realized there were more posts in this thread. Thanks Hat for the comments and write ups.
I will say this, being able to bet online can give you a significant reduction in the vigorish you pay on your winners, especially if you are from outside the US.
It's good to have multiple outs...it can really make a difference over the long haul.