[curious]

Game
Miami -400 12 to win 3 Win
Toronto -110 3.3 to win 3 Win
New York -105 3.15 to win 3 Win
Minnesota +100 3 to win 3 Loss
OKC -270 8.1 to win 3 Win
Philly +185 1 to win 1.85 Win
Philly +5 -110 2.2 to win 2 Win
Golden State +260 1 to win 2.6 Loss
Golden State +7 -110 2.2 to win 2 Loss
Charlotte +11 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3 Loss

For all of these take the favs on the ML and the dogs + the points. For the really large favs like Boston you might want to either skip the play or use the fav minus the points. I don't want to have another disaster like the Lakers who lost 2 Q plays and 1 Half play at huge ML odds.

1 Half
Boston ML (you might want to lay the points of skip this play)
Houston ML Win

2 Half
Atlanta + points Loss
New Orleans ML Win
Dallas ML Win

Quarters
1Q
Boston ML
Toronto ML Loss
Detroit ML Loss
Houston ML Loss
Dallas ML Win
Charlotte + points Loss

2Q
Boston
Minnesota + points Win
Denver + points Loss
Memphis + points Loss
Houston ML Win
Golden State + points Loss
Chicago ML Loss

3Q - I am going with two strong trends on some of these. Some teams win the 3rd Q by a high %. We also have the loser of the 1st half wins the 3Q. For some of these I am combining both trends by giving a pick ONLY if the pick loses the 1st half, otherwise there is no play. The other plays are the usual "loser of 1st half". This should increase the win %. Feel free to play all of these as "loser of 1st half" and we can compare results.
Toronto / New Jersey (loser of 1st Half) Win
Detroit / Minnesota (loser of 1st Half) Win
Atlanta / New York (loser of 1st Half) Win
Memphis / OKC (loser of 1st half) Win
Philadelphia / Houston (loser of 1st half) Win
Chicago / Clippers (loser of 1st half) Loss

Milwaukee (if they lose the 1st Half) Win
Boston (if they lose the 1st Half) (depends on the line, if the line is ridiculous then pass)
New Orleans (if they lose the 1st Half)
Dallas (if they lose the 1st half)
Portland (if they lose the 1st half)

4Q - Play these at the end of the 1st Half. Don't play any of these if the team will have nothing to play for in the 4Q. LIke if the game is a huge blowout at the half. Of course you cannot predict what will happen in the 3Q.
Atlanta + points Win
Minnesota + points Loss
New Orleans ML Win
Oklahoma City ML Loss
Dallas ML Win
Chicago ML

[50lipa]

What the hell, was gonna take POR -9, went do do some research and the line goes to -11 within 30mins.
Gotta be shitting me. Altho Charlotte was in 2 OT's, hmm.

[jtnguyen79]

curious,

no whole game leans? or picks? only quarters and halves today?

[50lipa]

He's crunching numbers, give him time.

[curious]

curious,

no whole game leans? or picks? only quarters and halves today?

Perhaps you did not read my post:

Game (waiting on hot/cold stats)

[NBA Hero]

good picks that translate to ka-tsing, cash

[vassman86]

Hey curious, I saw a post on of yours on formulawiz's thread. You were asking for a good place to find the closing lines for games. TheSpread.com is a good place to find the closing lines.

http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-scores

Go to TheSpread.com --> go to the NBA section --> go to Scores --> go to Yesterday. Basically, once you click "Yesterday" to see past results, you can alter the date in the URL to find whichever date you'd like.

ex. http://www.thespread.com/index.php?o...a&date=2009-01-27

Not sure if you're still looking for it, but that's what I use when I need to check a closing line.

[Scott Rocha]

Perhaps you did not read my post:

Yes I agree. The Warriors ML+240 looks like a winner to me. Then take the GS winnings and put it on Roddick to take out Federer +500. 12:30am PST

[Hanger]

Ok, now we all know the Clips suck!, However.....

In their last 2 games they have stuck pretty close for the 1H. Chicago is notoriously bad on West coast swings, and seem to be slow starting during this skid they are on. Clips 1H +1.5 at the moment. Probably not a play for me, but seems like something to watch.

Curious I see your on Chicago ML for 2Q and 4Q. I love the 4Q ML, as Clips have been getting worn out over the past few games. Any feedback you can provide on this one?

[curious]

Ok, now we all know the Clips suck!, However.....

In their last 2 games they have stuck pretty close for the 1H. Chicago is notoriously bad on West coast swings, and seem to be slow starting during this skid they are on. Clips 1H +1.5 at the moment. Probably not a play for me, but seems like something to watch.

Curious I see your on Chicago ML for 2Q and 4Q. I love the 4Q ML, as Clips have been getting worn out over the past few games. Any feedback you can provide on this one?

Win % by Q......1Q........2Q........3Q.......4Q
Chicago............34%.....53........41% .....48%
L.A. Clippers......38%.....42%.....51%.....34 %

I match up win % by Q. Any Q where the difference is >=10% I take the team with the higher %. Except for the 3Q. For the 3Q I usually use the loser of the 1st Half. Unless the diff between win % shows a ridiculous mismatch. Then I either pick one team straight up for the 3Q, or I pick a team for the 3Q only if they lose the 1st H or the 2Q. There were a lot of those conditional 3Q picks today for some reason.

[Hanger]

Curious-

Thank you very much for throwing the bone to the little guy in your explanation. Where you pulling the Qtr stats like that? I know my book doesn't have them. I usually just manually go through the last 5 games played and see how each team does in a qtr vs quality of opponent.

Thanks

[curious]

Curious-

Thank you very much for throwing the bone to the little guy in your explanation. Where you pulling the Qtr stats like that? I know my book doesn't have them. I usually just manually go through the last 5 games played and see how each team does in a qtr vs quality of opponent.

Thanks

http://www.82games.com/0809/QSORT2.HTM

One of these days I am going to stop being lazy and put together a Halftime database, so that I will have the same stats for half times.

I also want to look at things like:
Team A wins 2H XX% of the time if they WIN the 1Q,

or,

Team B loses 2H XX% of the time if they LOSE the 2Q.

I think their might be some gold in those data mines.

[OperatorX]

http://82games.com/

[OperatorX]

and im an idiot and too late.

[Hanger]

Agreed with you, and thank you very much for the link!

That database would be a gold mine for 2H plays!

[curious]

Agreed with you, and thank you very much for the link!

That database would be a gold mine for 2H plays!

Well, you know what will happen, as soon as we get it working and start betting big on the picks the patterns will totally change.

[Hanger]

Of course thats how it works Curious.....man this link is so much better than manually trying to compute everything hahha,

[curious]

I knew there was something fishy about that Boston line. couldn't quite put my nostril on what it was. Glad I took that loser off the board.

[curious]

So taking that Boston play down wasn't such a bright idea after all.

Oh well.

[Devon]

Hey curious, whats the dealio if you lost a quarter, martingale it for the next quarter but its a push?

[50lipa]

Good to see Philly comming through, had a little parlay on them aswell as under, everything cashed out.

Just waiting on the Portland game i unloaded big, to cover for some of the unexpected NCAA losses.

[50lipa]

Hey curious, whats the dealio if you lost a quarter, martingale it for the next quarter but its a push?

Don't martingale pushes.

[Devon]

Cheers dude!

[curious]

Hey curious, whats the dealio if you lost a quarter, martingale it for the next quarter but its a push?

You keep going till you win, so you carry that play to the next quarter.

1Q Loss 1 Unit
2Q Bet 2 units Push
3Q Bet 2 units

[curious]

Don't martingale pushes.

Is your name Curious? When you have a push you make that same bet in the next Quarter.