NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Heh! Nice catch Ronald. I should have read it 10 minutes earlier!

No problem pip!

**Consigliere** · 11-04-14, 03:31 PM

Great thread going here. I have just found the forum thanks to Nash13 and am going to use this thread to post my plays. I started a thread in the sports database forum but because my system is a combination of a large number of sdql trends and some personal model work I've done I couldn't just post sdql so was asked not to continue that thread.

Right now the system is in its first year but has shown profit in every year of the last 15 except for one year where it was down 0.2 units. Of course this is back testing not live results.

So far we are 2-0-1 ats. Winners with Washington oct 30 and heat nov 1 and a push last night on the seventy sixers. I bought down to 11 on that game hence the push.

I will be tracking leans as well and those are 2-0 with Dallas and golden state covering ats on nov 1.

Finally there are two picks tonight Suns-6.5 and Cavs -2. I bought down the Cavs to -2 here. Primary angles here are looking at away favourite value. Suns coming of the previous big road loss to Utah are primed for a bounce back and Cavs with some extra rest look good.

**xcorujax** · 11-04-14, 04:41 PM

LeBron James againts TrialBlazers?

**FortySix** · 11-04-14, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Gees, the moneyline is -120, and you have a 600+ sample size giving NY a 71% to win straight up. That really does look inviting.

Thanks Pip, and now the ML is in favor of the Wizards due to heavy public action. I will take the Knicks in this game

**JMon** · 11-04-14, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

One last thing on this trend... It is stronger when the previous game was also on the road, especially on the moneyline!

AD and p:A and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

50-31 (0.38, 61.7%)
57-24-0 (2.78, 70.4%)	avg line: 2.4

AD and p:H and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

31-29 (-0.72, 51.7%)
36-22-2 (1.76, 62.1%)	avg line: 2.5

Good work Ronald!

**FortySix** · 11-04-14, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by SportsMind

Really loving this thread, especially to confirm picks that you come to using other methods.

HF and p:AD and p:margin<0 and p:fouls>25 and rest=0 and line>-6 and o:rest>0

35-21 (2.38, 62.5%)
25-30-1 (-0.75, 45.5%)	avg line: -3.1
37-18-1 (5.78, 67.3%)	avg total: 195.6

A quality team with no rest after a tough game in which they weren't expected to win, and they got into foul trouble. The next game they go home and play more loose on defense against a quality opponent who has rest.

Feel free to criticize.

Really like this play Sportsmind. Pelicans and Hornets coming off low scoring games against the defensive minded Grizzlies (both teams played Grizz lately) and also the ref crew on this game are over kings so far this season. Check out their history. I use the covers website for ref assignments and stats

**JMon** · 11-04-14, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by FortySix

Really like this play Sportsmind. Pelicans and Hornets coming off low scoring games against the defensive minded Grizzlies (both teams played Grizz lately) and also the ref crew on this game are over kings so far this season. Check out their history. I use the covers website for ref assignments and stats

Only thing troubling to me is no plays in 2013...doesn't mean it's not going to hit though. Could be a very specific situation (not a bad thing) or it's over fitted.

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Only thing troubling to me is no plays in 2013...doesn't mean it's not going to hit though. Could be a very specific situation (not a bad thing) or it's over fitted.

To me, if it was overfitted, it would be because of the "line>-6". But if you take that out completely, you still have a nice one: O/U:59-34-2 (4.06, 63.4%)

**FlyinAir** · 11-05-14, 02:06 AM

Play on a team previously scoring more than 108pts playing as an home favorite more than -5 vs an opp on more than 2.5 days of rest and the total is over 202.5...play on Nets -5....and this game is projected to go over the high total of 206

SU; 43-8
ATS; 31-19-1
SDQL; p

oints>108 and HF and line<-5.0 and o:rest>2.5 and total>202.5

**SportsMind** · 11-05-14, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by pip2

To me, if it was overfitted, it would be because of the "line>-6". But if you take that out completely, you still have a nice one: O/U:59-34-2 (4.06, 63.4%)

I can see that. It luckily hit but I didn't love it. Feel like it could use a couple tweaks to expand it, and then factor in the opposing team's offensive ability.

**FortySix** · 11-05-14, 06:22 AM

Hey fellas,

So I have been a bit of a stalker lately and went through the entire thread and picked up most of the SDQL posted by all of you. Here are the ones that are active for NBA Wednesday. Will try and do this everyday if it helps? Or do you guys sign up to killersports and get the notifications when a saved trend re-appears?

This one is a play on the Nuggets @ Kings
H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

Under in Grizzlies @ Suns
team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011

Play against Nets vs Wolves

p:margin>=25 and line>p:line and season>=2013

Cavs @ Jazz
p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10
H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

Hope this helps

**hyahya** · 11-05-14, 09:26 AM

p:total>210 and p:AO and H and rest=0 and o:rest>0

**pip2** · 11-05-14, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by SportsMind

I can see that. It luckily hit but I didn't love it. Feel like it could use a couple tweaks to expand it, and then factor in the opposing team's offensive ability.

It was the only one of 3 query bets that won for me yesterday. So I like it!

**pip2** · 11-05-14, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

p:total>210 and p:AO and H and rest=0 and o:rest>0

I think you first provided this one:

H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011

oops -- forty six already beat me to this one...

**pip2** · 11-05-14, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by FortySix

Hey fellas,

So I have been a bit of a stalker lately and went through the entire thread and picked up most of the SDQL posted by all of you. Here are the ones that are active for NBA Wednesday. Will try and do this everyday if it helps? Or do you guys sign up to killersports and get the notifications when a saved trend re-appears?

This one is a play on the Nuggets @ Kings
H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

Under in Grizzlies @ Suns
team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011

Play against Nets vs Wolves

p:margin>=25 and line>p:line and season>=2013

Cavs @ Jazz
p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10
H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

Hope this helps

Thanks for sharing the fruits of your legwork fortysix. I did the same thing a few weeks ago, but I'm pretty sure I missed a bunch. I like
(p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10) the best of these I think.

**frisky** · 11-05-14, 10:27 AM

A little slow on this, which teams would you fade or go with or over/under, don't quite understand all the <,>=??, sorry just trying to figure this out

**hyahya** · 11-05-14, 11:15 AM

A and P:ats margin<=-10 and P:season=season and P:H and season>2012

**pip2** · 11-05-14, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by frisky

A little slow on this, which teams would you fade or go with or over/under, don't quite understand all the <,>=??, sorry just trying to figure this out

Frisky, as a lot of this is pretty theoretical, guys are discussing the merits of how useful each of these queries are because some of these queries are awesome, and other ones suck, and everything in between. There's a couple of different ways you could approach this. One would be to learn these queries to the point where you can see which one would work better and which one would work worse, and then go through the queries that are presented every day and figure out if you like them good enough to bet on them. Another method would be to just watch for jmon or mako to endorse a query and then jump on it.

But even if you don't know the <,> and all that, you might get some basic use out this if you are able to cut and paste the posted queries into the killer sports (nba section) website and see the results. If the query applies to a game going on today, for instance, then at the bottom of the query you will see that game listed.

**hyahya** · 11-05-14, 11:22 AM

p:WAD and p:margin>=6 and HD and line<=6 and season>=2010

**frisky** · 11-05-14, 11:29 AM

Thanks pip

**Ronald S.** · 11-05-14, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Good work Ronald!

Thanks Jmon!

**Ronald S.** · 11-05-14, 12:06 PM

How do trends for a specific team the year before fare in general? For instance, Orlando being on the road last year heavily favored the under and an ATS loss (well, straight up loss too lol). Though tonight's game, they are a rare road favorite against Philly whom they beat and covered in the same situation last year.

4-37 (-9.88, 9.8%)
14-25-2 (-1.60, 35.9%)	avg line: 8.3
12-29-0 (-2.78, 29.3%)	avg total: 198.5

Also, is there a shortcut for "a cover"? I have just been doing ats margin > or < 0 but seems odd they have O and U for over and under the total but no shortcut for winning or losing ATS?

**JMon** · 11-05-14, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by ronald s.

how do trends for a specific team the year before fare in general? For instance, orlando being on the road last year heavily favored the under and an ats loss (well, straight up loss too lol). Though tonight's game, they are a rare road favorite against philly whom they beat and covered in the same situation last year.

4-37 (-9.88, 9.8%)
14-25-2 (-1.60, 35.9%)	avg line: 8.3
12-29-0 (-2.78, 29.3%)	avg total: 198.5

also, is there a shortcut for "a cover"? I have just been doing ats margin > or < 0 but seems odd they have o and u for over and under the total but no shortcut for winning or losing ats?

atsm <- needs to be uppercase

**Ronald S.** · 11-05-14, 01:16 PM

Thanks again Jmon.

AD and p:H and rest = 0 and o:rest>0 and month = 11 and line < 4

This is the weaker version of the trend I posted yesterday. (p:A is the strong version)

The Raptors @ Celtics qualify as a game today. The line is currently at TOR +2 and ML +110

Still on the fence on whether I'll play it though. Line is moving in Boston's favor so might see if spread moves to 2.5

The Knicks would also qualify as a play under this trend if we don't restrict it to spreads under 4 (currently 4 now, opened at 1.5) but they too played their previous game at home. I like the Knicks better than Raptors in this spot as Detroit is just awful but it would be against a 2.5 point line move.

18-7 (4.04, 72.0%)
19-5-1 (7.18, 79.2%)	avg line: 3.1
14-11-0 (0.98, 56.0%)	avg total: 192.3

It's done quite well since 2000 though small sample size

**Consigliere** · 11-05-14, 03:40 PM

I've made my way through half this thread after getting it referred to me by Nash13. All I have to say is WOW. Great work here guys, this is an amazing resource. I've been dabbling in SQDL for a few years here and there and am really trying to make a go of it now. My focus is on NBA as this is the sport I know well. As I said before in my first post in the thread, I've got a number of my own trends and some filtering that goes on that I was putting together and I thought I was a super-genius for that. Well turns out not...I was a bit concerned about sharing this hard to find and hidden "gems" but reading through the thread has shown me the power of sharing so I will be posting my specific trends and plays. The Cavs were on my picks with the following trend AF and p:AL and p:ats margin<0 and playoffs = 0 and season>=2006, with some additional angles relating to last nights blowout loss also to back this up. Another pick I have is Bulls tonight - 4.5 . For some reason this query won't paste into the window but the angle is a team that was previously outrebounded but won as a dog, is at home as a dog should be faded. The fundamentals aren't there for the team to cover.

**JMon** · 11-05-14, 04:23 PM

^ Consigliere I'm happy you decided to share! That's what this thread is about helping, learning and sharing of what we all love to do.

**JMon** · 11-05-14, 04:24 PM

Favoring TOR and MEM ML or ATS

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

bol

**JMon** · 11-05-14, 04:28 PM

Bulls

Unreal last three years.

HD and p:AW and p

oints < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2

**k310** · 11-05-14, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Another pick I have is Bulls tonight - 4.5 . For some reason this query won't paste into the window but the angle is a team that was previously outrebounded but won as a dog, is at home as a dog should be faded. The fundamentals aren't there for the team to cover.

p:rebounds < po:rebounds and p

W and HD

123-281 (-4.97, 30.4%)
171-222-11 (-0.36, 43.5%)	avg line: 4.6
212-186-6 (1.57, 53.3%)	avg total: 193.3

**FortySix** · 11-05-14, 04:47 PM

Only small sample but it was using the same SDQL for the Nuggets @ Kings game and I just put in there "HL" (Nuggets),
H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and op:HL and season>=2011

**hyahya** · 11-05-14, 05:06 PM

A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op

oints>100 and opp

oints>100 and oppp

oints>100

**SportsMind** · 11-05-14, 05:15 PM

I tried to leave the following as wide open as possible. It involves a 4 games in 5 nights coming off a HFW. The big difference came when I put the total as greater than 200. It is certainly something to look into even if we have to work on it to make it better. It seems like the opposing teams that covered in the situations have been better teams than the Celtics.

10-36 (-7.35, 21.7%)
13-32-1 (-4.71, 28.9%)	avg line: 2.6
24-22-0 (0.99, 52.2%)	avg total: 208.4

**SportsMind** · 11-05-14, 05:25 PM

Scratch the above. The quality of the opposing team makes a big difference. When i put combos of op:L and opp:L, it changed the results drastically.

**hyahya** · 11-05-14, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op

oints>100 and opp

oints>100 and oppp

oints>100

Crazy part here is that the total has been bet up to 210 from an opener of 205. Might just hope for a slow opening 5 mins and live bet the over trying to get a better line.

**FortySix** · 11-05-14, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Crazy part here is that the total has been bet up to 210 from an opener of 205. Might just hope for a slow opening 5 mins and live bet the over trying to get a better line.

Hi Hyahya, when I put this into the SDQL query it doesn't show any active games today...