[cocknocker]

As most readers of the thread know, the PC Play has been lights out since I joined here at SBR, and today we have another one on tap.

The San Antonio Spurs were humiliated on national television by the Magic down in Florida 90-78 in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score. the Spurs were in a bad position that night having played a hard fought game against the Hornets the night before. But his particular matchup finds the Spurs in great health and well rested. For the record, the Spurs are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ats in games against the Magic at home in the short run winning by average margins of 12 points. With a spread that is beneath 5 and revenge factored in this fits a model that is a mindboggling 75% ats. I will ride that information and takethe Spurs at -2, which is a good number considering the fact that they still remember that defeat earlier this season.

Spurs-2 (PC Play)VERY HEAVY play

The Hawks are all set to take on the Sixers on Sunday evening and what an opportune time to get them in the building with a 3-1 ats record against them. The Sixers have won 3 straight, while theHawks have been in need of a signature victory after getting their tails kicked in by the Magic in a grueling home and home series losing the back end by 34 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the margin of defeat if you can believe that. So the combined factors of the Sixers overacheiving and the hawks blowout loss has me in the mood to fade the Sixers. The hawks are lights out at home. I smell a double digit victory.

Atlanta-6 (buying a point to get back onto the key number) LIGHT play

You already knew that this was coming. the Celtics are playing horribly right now and now here come the Raptors,the picture of an up and down team if there ever was one. Well since the Celtics are down, the Raptors must also go down in this one. Boston is 4-1 ats in games in Canada, and with th Raptors coming off of a hard fought win over the Grizzlies and the Wizards before that, ti's okay if they lose one now. Mismatches are abound in this matchup from the coaches all the way down to the equipment guys. With the Celtics having dropped 4 straight games i look for this one to be a get right game and a laugher by the end of the third quarter.

Boston-5 (projected) HEAVY
Boston-3 1st half MEDIUM


Other notables: Late Night Tweek Special Lakers-10 BIG
Miami had overtime in the last game with 1 days rest and the airport debacle included. The Heat only go 8 deep on their rotation, and it's the Mighty Lakers last home game before a quick 2 game road trip through Texas. This one won't be close...

As far as the NFL playoffs:

GEEEEE-MENNNN-4 LIGHT play. A turnover could decode this game, and they play each other ALL the time. *****UPDATE NO PLAY ON THE EAGLES/GIANTS GAME FOR ME***

Still smoking on the Chargers/Steelers game but leaning toward taking the Steelers....
***UPDATE***

I am taking the Steelers HEAVY

You boys and girls give me what you've got...

[MarkHammond]

hard to argue with any of that analysis CK and unlike the Bulls there all good teams

[ClayBalls]

Think the Spurs might be down to -2 in the morning without having to buy it down?

[nonsense48]

CK, i'm tailing you all the way to the bank with S.A. as the PC pick my friend. as for atl bos and the G-Men i am in total agreement with you also. let's stroll to the bank with a nice safe deposit box drop on monday morn.

[Devon]

Spurs line moved from -3 to -2.5 at my book, laying the PC play now!

[NBA Hero]

good luck.

lets get back at them #### books.
on clips-suns. does the clips have the same line up

orl is a hot commodity right now. with celts on the other end.
cavs and orl are the favorite with their blowout wins. lots will be on orl, except ck's mafia

[Dexter]

giants at home and rested are an easy call for me here - the swirling winds of giants stadium do the trick. something like 20-7 NY.

-giants
__________________
following our leader with pitt

-steelers
-under pitt
__________________
nice revenge angle at play here for the spurs who got drilled at orlando on tnt earlier in the year. magic have been mauled their last 2 trips to sa.

-spurs
__________________
2 teams going in opposite directions right now. too many pts being given here to a live dog that could easily win outright.

-sixers
__________________
like the jazz at home, there is something about that home court edge for sac with the cowbells and amped up fans. been burning tickets at home this year, but now have martin/salmons on the floor together vs a mavs team that is very up and down. i'll take whatever pts and can actually see an outright win here for sac. howard likely out as well for dal.

-kings
__________________

[darkenergy]

CK,
I am so glad to see your picks on SA and ATL. I lost very big on ATL twice this week, and I am telling myself, I will double my bet when ATL vs Sixer; and will go again Orlando once they play with SA. Now with your picks on those two, look like time for me to get my money back. BTW, can you explain what's PC stand for?

[nonsense48]

CK, when i look at power ratings from time to time it shows for instance orl-5 power rating with a green star. does the green star denote that orl has a better power rating than s.a. and orl is getting points?

[nonsense48]

DEX, do you know the answer?

[darkenergy]

But some of these trends kinda weak on ATL, what's your thoughts:
In a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points: Current (1-3), last 3 years (5-6), since 1996 (31-33).

Current Last 3 Since 1996
in January games0-4, 14-20, 76-91. On Sunday games 1-0, 12-8, 45-39. After allowing 105 points or more2-5, 23-34, 125-137. After a loss by 10 points or more0-3 26-34, 152-146

[google99]

any thoughs on Pheonix-9/LAC and Lakers-11/Heat for tomorrow ?

[CLINT johnson]

CK,You think the line will go down to spurs -2 or -2.5 if we wait til tomorrow or will it go up ? I am a believer of your PC plays. Thanks.

[BigMoneyMan]

One word for tomorrow football. CHARGERS!!!

[vassman86]

nonsense48,
are you seeing the green star under the "Edge" column, next to the power rating of Orlando -5? This means that, according to the power ratings, there would be value in betting on Orlando since they're getting three points.

[vassman86]

But some of these trends kinda weak on ATL, what's your thoughts:
In a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points: Current (1-3), last 3 years (5-6), since 1996 (31-33).

darkenergy,
don't take everything for what it is. A statistic that determines ATS wins based on the O/U total is not exactly what I would call reliable.
If someone told you that the Hawks were coincidentally 3-10 ATS when the majority of their home crowd wears blue jeans, would you really care about a correlation like that?

[willpies]

Whats a PC Play sorry for been ignorant . By the way congrats on going 2/3 yesterday :P

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

Yes according to the power rankings a green star denotes that the team has an edge in this matchup according to the spread. It doesn't always work itsself out that way, but that's what it means.

For instance, last night the Bulls had a 6 point advantage according to power rankings, but they lost by 11 points, and Washington was a 1 point favorite according to the power rankings and lost outright to Charlotte. According to my own personal research the Bobcats were supposed to win as well. What i have figured out is that the power rankings don't take into account the other factors involved in a particular play. true it is a good guideline for wagering, but it is definitely not fail proof. I think the situation for this San Antonio/Orlando game is 59-13 ats since 1998 in favor of the Spurs with all of the filters included. The PC Boys are nothing if not thorough.

I'll make it plain, and put it to you this way; How many Championship trophies does Van Gundy have with his current crop of players and how many does Popovich have with his current crop of players? Translated, with regards to Orlando's win earlier this year, Popovich will make more appropriate and effective adjustments from losing better than Van Gundy will from winning. These teams have not swept the other in a season since San Antonio took 7 straight games between 2001-2004. More recently San Antonio took 3 in a row just prior to the spoken on defeat under bad circumstances earlier this year. San Antonio has had two days to prepare for this game in the middle of a 3 game homestand that includes the Mighty Lakers up next in two more days...I will be taking the Spurs in that on to blow out the Lakers at home as usual (3-1 straight up and 3-1 ats average winning margin of 15.5) What you didn't know was even the closeness of the Hornets to Spurs in the Southwest Division standings is a part of the PC Play.

ClintJohnson,

I believe that bettors will ignore the history of these teams and back the Magic. The sad truth is that the Spurs are 13-2 straight up and 10-5 ats against the Magic at home since 1994, and have not had a line this low at home against them since 1996. All of the faces are the same, and the Magic and Spurs have no new players to speak of other than Roger Mason Jr. Orlando happened to catch the Spurs on the back end of a back to back earlier this year with the first game being against a team with a record above .700 (New Orleans). I think that the line will go down as the money pours in on Orlando so you may be safe by waiting it out. As for myself, I went on and played it at 2 already. I don't need to watch line movements when the PC's make a call on something. I play it right away heavy as possible.

[cocknocker]

The Magic are already 72% to 28% on the consensus. I am already loving how this is shaping up!

[ManBearPig]

I like the pc plays and i will be making this my only play tomorrow. From now on until I get things figure out with this no more parlays and 2 games a day max. I need to reign it in becuz my current system isn't working.

[danrman]

just want to mention that the spurs play the lakers next... sometimes teams look ahead and sometimes teams want to play well going into a big game.. houston has the lakers next and we see what they did to the knicks so it probably means nothing but i just wanted to mention it.. im not about to go against ck's pc record.. that just wouldnt be smart+they have to be wanting to drill the magic after that debacle on xmas day.. hope everyone had a good day.. i lost the titans game but won w/ mich st.,arizona and the jazz so it was profitable... ck,dex,vassman,nonsense... cheers to ya baby... i really dont have anything to add right now but i will chime in tommorrow on the thread during the action if i get any good information.. lets get em boyz!!!

[shoebox]

Ck if the money keeps flowin the way it is might it be smart to wait right before tipoff? Also, tell me more bout the g men they seemed to be a closer matchup than people expect, I got an early lean on the eagles. Tell me a little something here??!

[danrman]

i feel the same way about the eagles matchup shoebox

[danrman]

the clips have scored 100 pts 1 time in the last 10 games.. they have gone under 7 out of their last 10... 3 straight under vs. the suns and 7 out of the last 8 games have gone under vs. suns.. they also just got back from a long road trip so that would also add to them being cold..

[maddogmadden86]

early leans for tomorrow
G-men to win it at home my buddy has season tickets every game he has gone to the past three years they have covered and he will be there tomorrow not to mention new yorkers hate philly fans the crowd will be all amped for this game and so will earth wind and fire that will be the deciding factor in this game,
Taking the chargers over the steelers, just because i like the points rivers and that nasty punter that will descimate the steelers if it becomes a defensive battle like i believe it will, and the chargers will be able to score the steelers best bet is their D
also as much as i wanted to play orlando at home i gotta go with the pc boys and hit the Spurs up like a fat kid in dodgeball not to mention you dont give the spurs points

[danrman]

hey maddog the game is at san antonio and the spurs are currently laying 3

[danrman]

for the nfl i got to go w/ a 7 1/2 pt teaser and its giants+3 1/2 and pitts+1 1/2

[cocknocker]

Alright shoe,

For one the Giants have been good to me this year, and I have ridden them for 11 weeks and won 9 and lost 2. Overall they are 12-4 ats. How can you argue with that? In the loss to the Eagles at the Meadowlands in December, Westbrook killed them with a 40 yards receiving touchdown and 30 yard rushing touchdown. Take away those two big plays and you get the usual Giant win when Westbrook is contained like usual. 4-1 ats advantage the Giants enjoyed over the last 5 times they have played overall. Too much is being made over an Eagle win that's a rarity at best. The Giants are 6-3 straight up over the last 9 contests overall between these two teams and 3-1 straightup in the last 4 overall. The Giants are the kings of the short spread. They are 8-2 ats as a favorite of a line between 3.5 to 9.5. When the Giants play the Eagles I just take them. It's just what i do.

The Eagle defense isn't that effective against the Giants. Eli wasn't sacked in the last game against the Eagles, so that means that they are familiar with the Eagle defense and it's vaunted rush. The Giants have the number 3 offense in the NFL.

The essentials of playoff football is to run the ball, stop the run, and not turnover the ball. I think that they pound the Eagles on the ground. The Giants have the number 1 ground game in the NFL and all of the backs are playing. The Giants have the 5th best defense in the league right behind the Eagles. The Giants are the number 1 offense in the NFL at limiting turnovers at .8 a game. That's absurd. The don't give the ball away.
Of course you already know that this is a revenge game. Philadelphia is 4-4-1 ats on the road this year, and the G-Men are 7-1 ats at home. These teams have alternated wins and losses in the last 5 games in New Jersey, and the Giants lost the last one. They are hopping mad at the kid brother Eagles right now. The Giants have all the essentials; Earth, Wind, and Fire.


The Eagles have exceeded expectations. It's time for them to go home now.

[NBA Hero]

willpies,
may i answer for ck. its so often asked to him and we can realize that it can be tiresome.
pc play is what ck guarantees that has a high probability of winning, as usual no lock in sports betting or etc.

so far 13-3 is his records when posting pc plays. thats a 81.25% accuracy.

[cocknocker]

NBA Hero

The PC Plays are 14-3..


I am a little disturbed about the Chargers now. Antoio Gates may be out, LT is out and nae Kaeding the field goal licker has a groin problem. And it's gonna be cold 28 degrees that will feel like 18 degrees. That defense absolutely shut down San Diego in the first game between these two teams. Pittsburgh rolled up 410 yards on offense to San Diego's pedestrian 213 total yards. Just shut em down. And picked off Phillip Rivers 2 times. Roethlisberger was 31-41 passing with no interceptions. The key to that game was San Diego had a few timely sacks. Robot Ben always comes back with a flair after getting injured. I think that I am going to end up taking Pittsburgh. The line is all the way back to where it started now (6.5) and the money is almost even 54% to 46% in favor of Pittsburgh. So the line is doing exactly what it's supposed to do when the money is on both sides of the fence. It's staying put.

I also am factoring in that San Diego is 3-4 away, and one of those three was the debacle at Pittsburgh that they should hav count against them. So they could easily be just 2-5 ats away. They aren't a good traveling team and that's that. On both of the other trips to the eastern time zone they lost straight up and ats (Miami and Buffalo) and they didn't look good at all. I haven't made my pick final yet, but it's gonna be hard to pass on the Steelers homes. I think it's gonna be the day of the favorite that happens in all playoff seasons. It just took a little longer than usual.

[willpies]

How does one come to a pc play? Thanks hero btw. Thats a high percentage damn.

[strybie]

ORL is hot, and they have the best record on the road. SAS is playing better and is 9 - 1 last 10 games, but the wins were not so big as the ORL wins, who are 8 - 2 the last 10 games. I think Howard will make the difference and will be too strong for Duncan. I play ORL +3 and ORL moneyline, against the PC play, but remeber, not all pc plays are wins (most of them are).

I will also take BOS but don't see the lines yet. They have to win again, and think they are able to win versus TOR

[wangichu]

a little nervous that my football card might get messed simply because the idea of 4 road dogs winning/covering is utopian, but the eagles and steelers always play tight games and i'm playing the momentum in the game, so i got to go with what i picked... no analysis though, could just be a waste of time.

PHI +4/ML
SD +6/ML

NBA:

LAL -10 (pacers have talent so they can compete, heat are short of necessary pieces so should get shelled in the name of vengence... i'll be there and i'll be plastered)

pondering:
IND/GS 1st half over or IND SU/ATS
SAC
TOR

and of course...
SA -2

[MVFC182]

I smell a blowout in LA tomorrow at both games.

Clips have scored over 100 in regular time once in 13 matches whilst Suns are hitting some sorta form, coming off a 28 point rout of Dallas. Again without Randolph and Davis, maybe Clips can hang with them till half time but I fancy Phoenix to win well over 9.5 points and I also like the Under 201 as I just can't see LA scoring more than maybe 85 points.

Miami coming to LA tired after a gruelling win against Sactown with the Lakeshow's loss to the Heat on their own turf still fresh in their mind. I see Lakers making their usual sluggish start, coming home to cover in the last quarter and a half.

Im also going to take Under 205 in this game, Under is 7-1 last 8 meetings and with Miami's tired legs, the place it hits you first is in your jump shots.

[NBA Hero]

sori ck.
i remembered your message before the cle-char. forgot to add that win.

strybie,
i like how orl plays and havent decided on that. but if you are a nba fan, you must know that popovich likes to win and can use one of his patented strategies if the game doesnt go in favor of the spurs
........HACK A HOWARD.