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Leans for Thursday 1/8/09
Well with only two games on the schedule we are faced with tough calls to make, especially in light of the two Texas teams playing at home. Neither one of these teams are ready to give up their home court advantage.
San Antonio is 19-1 straight up at home against the Clips over the long haul, and on their end, the Clips are 3-0 ats in their last 3 games in San Antonio. However, the Spurs have had average spreads of 14 to cover in those games. But what sticks out in my mind is that the linemakers keep giving them the same type of line, and for this game, the line is 13.5. translated, the linemaker actually does believe that the Spurs really are that much better than the Clips at home. What is happening is that the Spurs are underperforming. The Clips just barely lost their last game against the Mavs, controlling the action in that game for the majority of it, only to meltdown in the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. This is due to a lack of depth. The Clips are a team in turmoil as well. Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy Sr. are going at it these days, Ricky Davis can't put down the blunts, and with Zach Randolph and Chris Kaman down this is a pot that is simmering and on the verge of boiling over. So at the insistance of the linemaker that the Spurs should be covering the large spreads against the Clips, I will roll with the Spurs in this one, as they absolutely dismantle Pacific Division teams with a 5-1 ats record against them. San Antonio is also 8-1 ats in games following a non conference game. It is hard as hell to get consecutive ats covers in games in the Lone Star state, and this is for all intents and purposes a Texas triangle trip with the Hornets on the back end instead of the Rockets. Besides, mediocre teams that lose a close hard fought game to a superior opponent tend to get blown out in the following game when facing another superior opponent. I will take the chalk, as 91% of the public is putting their faith in the Clips to get the cover. Not me.
San Antonio-13.5 (no cut on it, won't be necessary)
As a side note, the over is 3-0-2 in the last 5 games in Texas between these two teams.
One look at the Dallas/New York game and I wondered, why is the line so small? The Mavs are usually favored by 13 points or so over the Knicks in games in Texas between these two teams. For the record, the Mavs are 5-0 straight up in the last five at home against the Knicks, but they also have alternated wins/losses in those games as well. Since this is an out of conference game, obviously the Mavs are not used to what the Knicks are doing on the court. With the Knicks loss to the lowly Thunder in their last outing, this game is a perfect set up for wagerers. And like Lee Corso says, "Not so fast". I am going to go with the public on this one and take the Knicks to get the cover against the Mavs as I smell a rat as well. I also see that the over is alternating in each game as well to boot. However, I like the side on this one. The Knicks are such an unpredictable team that they rival Dallas in the effect that they play either up to or down to the level of the competition. Dallas is 1-4 ats in their last 5 games with a spread of more than 8. And guess what? The Knicks are 4-1 ats in games as an underdog of 8 or more points.
Knicks +8.5
There will be reverse movement against the Knicks, so I probably will ge them at +10 when the line goes up to 9 or 9.5. So please nobody ask me about the reverse line movement later on today. I want the Knicks to get as many points as possible whether the linemaker is trying to trick me or not. The Mavs won't win this game by 10 regardless of the line movement.
College football
Florida Gators-4
College Basketball Parlay of the Day
Drexel+3.5
Butler-10.5
New Mexico State-5 (this one won't be close may want to play it straight)
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Originally Posted by zackattack
and PHI team!