[Inv1ctus]

Ok yesterday I was really disappointed by Houston's effort, what a shame that you get destroyed by a team who isn't playing all that well and you're supposed to be a contender. Also I wanted to bet on Bucks yesterday but at the end did not, cause I saw many people here were on Bobcats and as I respect certain people's opinions I passed on the bet. So today I'm gonna go against the "general rule" and I'm gonna bet on Bucks today.

The Bucks are playing pretty good basketball lately, I watched their game vs Detroit and although their shooting was awful (largely due to excellent Pistons D) they were still hanging in there. The Bucks have more depth as Bobcats and their offense is on fire, which cannot be said about Charlotte who are the least offensive team in the league and are trying to do it all with the defense but it's just not working for them yet, especially now when Bell is out (I don't expect him to play today) who can guard opposing shooting guards rather well. On the other hand Milwaukee's defense is rather good, they've held opponents to less than 88 points per game in their last 6 encounters, although they have couple of losses in that stretch,we have to take in account that it was a very tough road trip playing Detroit, Spurs and Houston. Today it's gonna be a much tougher game than yesterday but I believe the Bucks are gonna sweep this years series against.

Key Matchup: Richard Jefferson vs Gerald Wallace

X Factor: Charlie Villaneuva (Against Bucks this year he averaged 16.6 points on 44% shooting and 6.3 rebounds, which is good in 25 minutes he averaged in those games).

Number's Game: Milwaukee is 6:1 ATS in its last seven games, Milwaukee is 4:1 ATS in the last five games playing against Charlotte. Charlotte is 2:6 ATS in its last eight games playing at home.

My pick is Milwaukee +2 (bought a point) with 6/10. I would bet more if it wasn't a back2back game, but as we all know a lot can happen in these games.


The other game I like is Indiana - Sacramento, they gave the Pacers an 8 point lead which is just too big imho. Although Pacers are playing better bball than Kings who are just awful this year, the difference just isn't so big. The Kings will probably be without Hawes and thats an ugly handicap if we take in consideration the Pacers have some talented big guys who can also shoot 3-pointers in Murphy , and also the work in progress in rookie Hibbert who can have a nice game if he doesn't get in foul trouble. But the Kings on the other side have a tested veteran in Miller who is one the best passing big guys in the league and can also shoot threes, a young rookie Thompson who is a great rebounder and has a chance to develop in a very good player. So in the absence of Hawes his minutes will belong to Moore who is very energetic and is best when coming off bench because he is prone to offensive fouls due to his enthusiasm. But this game will be decided in the backcourt, both teams have some great 3-point shooters and because neither team has any good defense a lot will be up to the form of shooters. One of the problems for Indiana this year has been that they don't close games in the end, they've let opponents come back in the last minutes or so in couple of games this year so they have many losses with 2 or 3 points difference. So if they win tonight I don't expect them to win big.


Key Matchup: Danny Granger vs John Salmons

X Factor: Kevin Martin (The Kings have been without their best scorer for the most part of this season, now he is finally back. He still struggles with his shooting but I expect him to go to FT line a lot tonight).

Number's Game: Sacramento is 1:4 ATS in the last five games, they're 7:3 ATS in their last ten games on the road. Sacramento is 4:2 ATS in the last six games playing on the road against Indiana.

My pick is Sacramento +8.5 (bought half a point) with 5/10.


This will probably be it for today, unless Rockets or Nets get very favorable lines later on.

[johnnymapalo]

Only love your Bucks play. I don't trust Sacramento with any point spreads. They're too defenseless and careless for me to trust them to cover any spreads...