There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but some things are starting to shake into place and become clear with more than a third of the season gone now. Separating the pretenders from the contenders, the Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks look to be the most likely squads to fall out of the playoff picture in the Eastern and Western Conferences respectively over the next several months.
There are two ways to think about change. My favorite has to do with the money in my pocket, but the buzzword of 2008 had a lot more to do with transition. The world is a far different place than it was a year ago – and the NBA is no exception.
The Portland Trail Blazers (19-12 SU, 14-16 ATS) and Miami Heat (16-13 SU, 12-15-2 ATS) have become playoff contenders, while the Golden State Warriors (10-23 SU, 13-19-1 ATS) are heading rapidly in the other direction.
But there’s still a lot of basketball to be played this year. Plenty of teams get hot in December, only to fall flat on their faces in April. Here are my top candidates from each conference to lose their current playoff position – these should be strong fade candidates for handicappers as we head into 2009.
Eastern Conference: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls moved into eighth place in the East at 14-17 (15-16 ATS) on Monday by beating the New Jersey Nets 100-87 as 4½-point road dogs. These are the two worst teams in the Eastern Top 8; Chicago has a point differential of minus-2.4, while New Jersey (15-16 SU, 16-15 ATS) is a shade worse at minus-2.5. I would expect both of them to miss out on the playoffs, but I’m picking the Bulls as the more likely victim.
The Bulls have been a train wreck of a franchise since the end of the Michael Jordan Era. The growth spurt that they experienced after John Paxson came on as GM in 2003 was scuttled last year; Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon both regressed considerably, and coach Scott Skiles was fired as a result. Now Skiles is in a position to take the Milwaukee Bucks (14-17 SU, 20-10-1 ATS) into the playoffs while Bulls supporters wonder what the heck happened to Tyrus Thomas (13.89 PER) and Joakim Noah (14.34 PER).
New Jersey’s fate looks a lot rosier. The Jason Kidd-Devin Harris trade was a bonanza for the Nets; Harris is second among point guards with a 25.93 PER, a number that barely takes into account his tremendous defensive presence. Rookie Brook Lopez has already earned a spot in the starting rotation with 14.1 points and 11.1 rebounds per 40 minutes, plus he’s fourth in the league in blocks with 59. And Vince Carter (22.42 PER) is back to his old self with Harris as his backcourt partner. This is a deeper and more talented team than the one that missed the playoffs last year.
Western Conference: Dallas Mavericks The West is turning into the same nine-team dogfight as last season, with Portland taking Golden State’s place in the arena. The next eight teams in the standings after the Lakers (25-5 SU, 14-16 ATS) are separated by just 2.5 games. The Phoenix Suns were in eighth spot at 17-12 (11-17 ATS) with a point differential of only +0.6, but this is a team that just added Jason Richardson (20.4 points, 5.2 rebounds/40) and gave Charlotte little of value in return. Phoenix has won four of its six games with Richardson in the lineup.
So I turn my attention to the seventh-place Dallas Mavericks (18-12 SU, 14-16 ATS). Their point differential of +2.9 is worse than that of ninth-place Utah (+3.2). The Mavs sure rolled the dice on the Kidd trade; he’s still an impressive distributor at 9.3 assists per 40 minutes, but he’s only the No. 4 scorer on the team, which befits his 42-percent success rate on field goals. Steve Nash (also the Suns No. 4 scorer) is hitting 48.2 percent of his shots, and that’s his worst rate since he re-joined Phoenix.
Bench strength used to be one of Dallas’ strong suits, but there’s not much to write home about this year. Jose Juan Barea can’t defend, DeSagana Diop can’t score, and Gerald Green can’t even get off the pine. The Suns used to be criticized for their poor bench; they still need a backup point for Nash, but newcomers Matt Barnes, Robin Lopez and Jared Dudley give Phoenix the manpower it needs to make it through the next 50 games in good shape.
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