1. #1
    cocknocker
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    Leans or Saturday 12/27/08

    With the new day comes the promising prospect of cashing in on a PC Play, as well as more college football action. I took my first loss in the bowls but I plan to make up for it today with some very well researched college football plays.

    Washington had what i would term as "good" loss to the Cavs on Christmas day. I wll ride the wave of that hard fought battle and take the Wizards to get off of the schnide and pick up a much needed win. This is the inaugural Washington Week pick, which alos happens to b a PC Pick too. The Wizards OWN the Thunde and are 5-0 straight up and ats against the Thunder n games played in DC between these two teams. I plan on hitting this one hard to make up for the units lost yesterday with Sacramento, Boston, and others. It definitely messed up what was a spectacular day shopping wise and family wise. My uncle even kidded me all day as the losses piled up. Phoeey on him!

    PC Play Washington-5.5 (buying a hook) PC Meter 10-3 ats


    The T-Wolves are horrid in back ends of back to back games. They give up an average of 112 points in those games, and with Orlando cominginto town, that is a bad omen. Time to get them again. The Knicks came within 2 baskets of getting their team total yesterday, but I know tht the outcome was due to a poor shooting performance by the Knicks. Orlando doesn't let you get that lucky. I don't like the side in this one, but i sure like Orlando get 102 points.

    Orlando team total over 102

    I am taking this opportunity to drop the NETS+4 and replace that play with

    DEXTERS' PLAY THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS-4. Dexter pointed out the Bucks first and what a pick he came up with on this one folks. The Bucks according to Sportsinsights have only 21% of bettors on their side, yet the line went up from 4.5 to 5. Power rankings show that the Bucks should win by 10. That steam move has prompted me to drop the Nets from my board and roll with his pick of the Bucks-4. I still like the Charlotte/Nets over 191.5 (small) as the Bobcats as I have pointed out are for real now, and the Nets may go down today by 10 themselves after my research. NO NETS PLAY.

    Bucks-4 (DEXTER'S PLAY)
    Charlotte/New Jersey over 191.5 (small)

    College Football

    Cal-8.5
    West Virginia-1.5

    Now I've shown mine boys and girls now you show me yours. Yesterday we didn't have much hard core capping on the thread. We have to get some of that good stuff on here again. Somebody come up with a remarkable play that i overlooked. Trust me after yesterday, I can use all the help that I can get! Wooo that was brutal!
    Last edited by cocknocker; 12-27-08 at 12:08 PM.

  2. #2
    NBA Hero
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    im liking atlanta. it will be a good gift for the fans to over run the defenseless chicago. if they cant score on miami, what more on atl.

    bibby and joe provides the fire power. horford, smith the D!!!

  3. #3
    isiah121
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    CK, what about Raptors +9? The Trailblazers defeated Raptors at Raptors' home, so will the revenge factor help them beat TrailBlazers?

  4. #4
    danrman
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    hey ck, whats a "pc" pick??

  5. #5
    Marts727
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    CK,

    What do you think of the tor@por game, I am eyeing on the por on this game

  6. #6
    nick2060
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    I got Orlando tommorrow, their the new celtics/cavs covering all their spreads, so ima ride this wave out like i rode out the last Cleveland wave. Throw in the fact its not even double digits and there facing minnesota, should be good.

    I'm also on North Carolina tommorrow, i bought them to +3 even though i dont think ill need it, i guess it doesnt hurt and might end up saving my ass. This is basically a home game in North Carolina and in my opinion West Virgina is a sexy pick with the mobile quarterback and option threat with the speedy noel devine. They're exciting to watch, just like i'd never have to bet against micheal vick just cause what he can do, but i really think North Carolina and there defense are just gonna be solid at defending them, and after you defend the run game i really don't think theres much to be afraid of. I saw Pat white throwing against pitt and its just not the kinda thing you wanna rely on.

    Good luck everybody

  7. #7
    roasthawg
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    With you on Cal...I think they roll the Canes in the Bay Area.

  8. #8
    Ant2nv
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    CK your tips having been shocking of late...lucky i dont follow em, might jus start playing the opposite 2 u from now on lol

  9. #9
    cocknocker
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    Ant2nv,

    thank you for your positive input. Next time include your picks for the day so that I can see that you're not just a punk talking that same old sh*t with no plan to back up his words....You can always put your nuts on the table you know, if you have any to put on it...

  10. #10
    Ant2nv
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    I have posted my picks here before....go look em up and see how i did then get back 2 me KZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZz

  11. #11
    cocknocker
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    Ant2nv,

    Don't have time to sift through that many posts. Just start being up to date from now on and that will be fine. There are 7,000 or so people who visit the thread daily. Do you think that they're coming to see what you're gonna pick? Please...

    Broncos9798,

    I am going to explain this for you and the thread one last time, and I hope that I don't have to go over this again, because I hate retracing my steps.

    If you can grasp the statement, don't pay vigorish then you are already there. Taking an example of a -110 bet for $300.00. It usually will take $330 to win $300 on a -110 bet right?

    Put up exactly $300.00 to win $272.73, and with the remaining $30.00 you would have put up on your -110 bet to make $300.00 ($330.00) put it on the other sides moneyline.

    If I put up $300.00 to win $272.73 on the Celtics -10.5 -110 -1400 on one book, and then on another I put up $30.00 on the Warriors moneyline at +1000, then it is easy to see that if the Warriors win, then I get back $300.00.

    If I had taken the Warriors, the I would have put the $30.00 on the Boston moneyline (-1400) and take the profit. No matter how small it's better for you to get the profit, than to voluntarily give it to the books everytime you take a loss.

    That's why I never take a complete loss. I don't give a damn if I only win some crumbs. They are my crumbs, and not Bodog's,or greeks or Linemsakers, and so on. The vig is what keeps them in business. Once you learn that, then you won't mind taking a chance on yourself on everysingle bet instead of giving it away every single bet. Sure I lost with the Celtics pick yesterday, but i was able to salvage almost ALL of what i put down, instead of taking an outright loss. I lost with the 600.00 on the Kings, but i also got some -175 money for the Raptors as well played for $60.00.

    Hope you understand now. You need your money in more than one sportsbook, or if you have to, get two accounts with the same one.

    Ant2nv,

    You do realize that you are doing all of this talking without putting up your picks and the reason why you came up your picks. i ain't through with you yet. You can be a positive contributor, or you can look foolish however do you want it. Or better than that, you can start your own thread. Now that's three choices for you, which one you gonna do?

  12. #12
    diogee
    fadeable flamingo
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    Good luck cn...agree with the Nets. Solid on the road and coming off a sub par performance in which they shot 40%. Nets forced plenty of turnovers but couldn't convert them into points. Cha shot 50% and had 5 more points from the line. Carter and Harris were both subpar shooting nights going 12-36 combined.

  13. #13
    Ant2nv
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    The tips u give and the way you play are completly different 2 the way other ppl play...sum ppl dont have enough money 2 play your way!!

    So u might post losing tips but still find a way 2 cover your loses, but my remark was at your recent tips...they havent been the best!
    I never said ppl would come here 4 my tips??? but so far with my tips ive posted atleast 80% win rate...and when ive given locks they have been jus that..

    If your gonna post 6 picks make em good 1z...dont lose em then cover on a 2nd half as a last resort...and claim 2 have made a profit!!

    I will be posting my pickz later...but a few dayz doesnt prove anything

  14. #14
    Dexter
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    nc vs w.virg - west virg has been taking the money, and i'm going to side with them here. pat white and noel devine are one of the best rushing tandems in the country (13th overall in rushing) while nc ranks 63rd in the nation vs the run. thats enough for me to lay the small number. i'm going to make a play on the under as well. both offenses combined for an avg 26ppg, while the defenses let up an avg of 18ppg. with an avg score of 44 and a total at 46, i'll play the low here.

    *w.virginia*
    *under*
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    wisc vs florida st - wisc went over in 7 of 11 games while fsu went over in 6 of 10. both teams avg out an offensive number of 31ppg, while the defenses avg out 23ppg. with an avg of 54, i'll play the over 52 here.

    *over*
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    miami vs cal - i hate to go with the public, but i like cal in this game. miami has dropped its last 2 su and ats, and now has to travel cross country where cal will basically have a home game in SF. Cal has won and covered its last 2 of the season and is 9-3 ats on the season.

    *california*
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    nets @ bobcats- home and home continues tonight in charlotte, and i expect the nets to avenge their home loss from last night - nj is much better on the road at 10-3 ats, as well as being 13-8 ats as a dog.

    *nets*
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    pistons @ bucks -no line yet on this game with the pistons just finishing a tough home win vs the thunder. i have my line on this game set to the bucks -3.5. i love milw here for several reasons:

    -back to back off a win for the older pistons.
    -the pistons have dropped their last 4 ats.
    -the bucks are playing really well, having covered and won 3 in a row.
    -milw is 9-3 ats at home this year
    -revenge angle at work, as the bucks will look to avenge a 10pt loss from late november.

    *bucks* - (large)
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    magic @ wolves - looks like a sucker bet on paper, but i dont see the wolves covering here. i'm not a fan of taking big road fav's in the nba, but all the numbers point to orlando. 10-3 on the road ats, and 14-8 as a fav ats. the wolves are 10-14 as a dog ats, and 3-10 ats at home. the magic covered last year in minny, and have been red-hot covering 9 in a row. the wolves have only covered 1 of their last 4.

    *magic*
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    grizzlies @ spurs -memphis rarely wins and got a home win last night - now must travel to sa to face the rested spurs. spurs are already 2-0 ats vs the grizzlies this year, and should win this one by 20+..memphis is 4-9 ats on the road this year, and 1-5 ats on back to back.

    *spurs*
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    raptors @ blazers -the raptors are on a back to back (off a tough su win) and now travel to portland. blazers covered last years home game with the raptors and i expect a hungry/rested blazer team to lay down the hammer vs a tired raptor team. blazers are 8-5 at home this year, and will be ready after that home loss to the mavs on xmas day.

    *blazers*
    Last edited by Dexter; 12-27-08 at 10:50 AM.

  15. #15
    Dexter
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    cocknocker - just post your fading example on your sbr page and point people there when they quetion you.

    Bottom line people, cocknocker to me appears to be like a savy hedge fund manager. Its not about hitting 65% of your plays - its about smart money mgmt techniques. And he clearly has those - does it take a few extra bucks to do what he does (buying pts, fading himself etc)? sure, but if you can afford to, its a very smart approach. Last time I checked, he wasnt making people pay for his plays. Hes offering up his opinions for free.

    CK - take a deeper look at the bucks - i really like them tonight...
    Last edited by Dexter; 12-27-08 at 04:39 AM.

  16. #16
    Spoon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ant2nv View Post
    The tips u give and the way you play are completly different 2 the way other ppl play...sum ppl dont have enough money 2 play your...SNIP
    For starters, I'm not doubting you, but I have never seen you post your plays in our thread so do me a favor and provide a link so I can check it out. You making a claim without supporting evidence does no one any good. You joined this forum approximately 2 weeks ago and managed to posted 12 messages to the board before you came in here talking junk and wasting the "online-ink." So, do the leg work yourself and find those plays you posted and post the link just so I can see you contributed something. Fair?

    Secondly, your statement, "...dont lose em then cover on a 2nd half as a last resort...and claim 2 have made a profit!!" is ridiculous. I have no idea about your wagering history, but if you don't make an attempt to correct a wager at halftime when your original wager is going south I don't even want to know how much money you lose. Do you realize how many times I have saved myself from a loss or perhaps made a profit by hedging my wager? This is common knowledge and should be done, IMO. CK, Me, Big, Shoe, Mundane, Vassman, CTS, Joan, Sam and many of the others who post plays here do it to share them with everyone. That does not mean we have to hold someone's hand through the game and tell them each time we hedge a halftime wager or play different quarters.

    Lastly, if you feel more comfortable fading feel free to do so, but try being professional about it and just fade without blurting out unnecessary comments.
    Last edited by Spoon; 12-27-08 at 04:53 AM.

  17. #17
    walbjj
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    i agree about trying to salvage a bet that isnt doing well, but often im away from a computer so i cant make a bet. also, one could argue that u could dig urself deeper in a hole and go from bad to worse, so im of the opinion that i make a bet and stick with it for the day.
    anyway, i got raped today, but as they say, its a long season

  18. #18
    Ant2nv
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    Jus cos i officially joined few weeks ago...doesnt mean i havent been looking and browsing every1z tips for months/years..

    Having made more posts doesnt make u a better tipper does it??
    And im talking about straight tips not money management or covering-which i do and im sure every1 else does every single day!!!

    If u read wat i wrote originally...i said Ckz tips havent been the best of late so im goin the opposite..as a JOKE!!!...but he has 2 get defensive and call me out, when ive made like 15 tips here and won like 12, and ive only ever lost the over/unders...

    I guess i'll have 2 go thru my posts and find them...

    Do i think any1 there is a better tipper than me??? hell no, im confident with my tips and will alwayz go the way i feel regardless of how many ppl disagree with me.

  19. #19
    Ant2nv
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    Quote Originally Posted by walbjj View Post
    i agree about trying to salvage a bet that isnt doing well, but often im away from a computer so i cant make a bet. also, one could argue that u could dig urself deeper in a hole and go from bad to worse, so im of the opinion that i make a bet and stick with it for the day.
    anyway, i got raped today, but as they say, its a long season

    Exactly my point!!!

  20. #20
    Spoon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ant2nv View Post
    I have posted my picks here before....SNIP
    Quote Originally Posted by Ant2nv View Post
    I guess i'll have 2 go thru my posts and find them...SNIP
    I'll be waiting...

    EDIT: Dude, forget it... when you said you posted your picks "here" I assumed you were talking about posting your picks "here" in this thread (the "Leans for..." threads) - not through the entire SBR forum. NM, Dude.
    Last edited by Spoon; 12-27-08 at 05:40 AM.

  21. #21
    Spoon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ant2nv View Post
    Exactly my point!!!
    That wasn't your point you clown. Show me where you mentioned this in your posts. Here, let me help you...

    You said, "If your gonna post 6 picks make em good 1z...dont lose em then cover on a 2nd half as a last resort...and claim 2 have made a profit!!"

  22. #22
    Ant2nv
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    i went thru my posts and quoted then...not sure how else 2 do it??
    My 3 locks all came in...which is wat i claimed 2 be true!!

    My point is if u post picks make them good 1z....cos not every1 that comes here covers(yes most regular posters do however)... the average person looks at the tips and writes them down, they dont play at the half 2 cover...they play a bet in advance and stick 2 it!!!!!!!!

  23. #23
    walbjj
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    anyway ant, who u got for tomorrow, im actually interested to know ur thoughts on some of the games.

  24. #24
    Ant2nv
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    The only to games i like are New Jersey and portland

    New Jersey +3
    Portland -8.5

    Oklahoma/wash...wouldnt be confident either way, oklahoma have played sum tough games recently, i wouldnt be surpised if they win, but wouldnt be surprised if the go down by 20+...good game 2 stay away from.

    Orlando have been the line kings...9pts is alot 2 cover tho especially away from home..might wait before i decide on that 1.

  25. #25
    NBA Hero
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    go NETS!!!!

    no lines yet on atlanta

  26. #26
    zackattack
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    i am 6-2 in bowls......so i will post my picks for today
    cal-10
    florida st -6
    n. car +2
    Last edited by zackattack; 12-27-08 at 09:30 AM.

  27. #27
    van6499
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    I found that....
    OKC scored average 89.2 pts last 5 games
    WAS scored average 84.8 pts last 5 games

    89.2+84.8=174 only

    on defense
    OKC lost average 94.4 pts last 5 games
    WAS lost average 93.4 pts last 5 games

    94.4+93.4=187.8 only

    but the O/U line is 196.5 now....
    Maybe i'll try it tomorrow as it go down to 194.5
    Does anyone has any thought toward the line ?

  28. #28
    maddogmadden86
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    hey CK what do u think about the bucks playing at home agaisnt the pistons, the bucks ouscore poeple at home by 6 points as the pistons get outscored by a a point away, and over the alst 5 the bucks have outscorded opponents by 15 and the pistons have been getting outscored by a point what do u think

  29. #29
    Dexter
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    bucks up to 5.5 already from a 4.5 open - i think they win by 10+, but was hoping to get around 4.5 max. either way, i still love them - perhaps some piston money comes in now on the inflated line.
    Last edited by Dexter; 12-27-08 at 11:22 AM.

  30. #30
    africanroller
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    Guys stop wasting your time posting to that guy. The whole first page is wasted with arguing. Not very productive at all.

  31. #31
    DevilDog
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    There are some smart guys here that can pick games at a good percentage but let me tell you this right now....IT IS ABOUT MONEY MANAGEMENT!

    Do most of you know that even with winning percentages as low as 55% you can make a GREAT living if you bet enough games at that percentage or you bet enough per game.

    It is NOT about winning 65% or higher on your games! Of course you want to win at a high percentage but it is NOT neccessary to do that!

    Sound money management and working the numbers is how you make a living in this business...been there done that...still doing it!

    MOST of you, with discipline and sound money management, could quit your day jobs with a decent bankroll. There is more than enough good info. on this site and others to find winners at a 55% clip or higher.

    But through the years I have seen guys lose their ass because they cannot manage money! This is the same type of guy that we all know that makes good money on his job but seems to always be broke.

    Learn money management techniques and you could some day tell the boss to GFH.

  32. #32
    strybie
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    PIS ML (they still are a very good team, just did underperform this year, they only can improve)
    TOR +8 (Chris Bosh and O'Neal are playing very good, Por all depends on how Roy is playing. 8 is too much too cover versus TOR)
    ORL -9 (I keep playing them till I lose, they almost allways cover the spread and play very good)
    CHAR -2.5 (they won yesterday on the road, they will win for sure @ home)
    WAS -6.5 (WAS playing better last week and play @ home, opponent is very weak on the road 1 - 14 so they should cover)

  33. #33
    strybie
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    Quote Originally Posted by van6499 View Post
    I found that....
    89.2+84.8=174 only
    on defense
    94.4+93.4=187.8 only
    don t forget , two worst teams playing each other, poor defense, so they both should score more then usual. That is why the line is higher according to me.

  34. #34
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilDog View Post
    There are some smart guys here that can pick games at a good percentage but let me tell you this right now....IT IS ABOUT MONEY MANAGEMENT!

    Do most of you know that even with winning percentages as low as 55% you can make a GREAT living if you bet enough games at that percentage or you bet enough per game.

    It is NOT about winning 65% or higher on your games! Of course you want to win at a high percentage but it is NOT neccessary to do that!

    Sound money management and working the numbers is how you make a living in this business...been there done that...still doing it!

    MOST of you, with discipline and sound money management, could quit your day jobs with a decent bankroll. There is more than enough good info. on this site and others to find winners at a 55% clip or higher.

    But through the years I have seen guys lose their ass because they cannot manage money! This is the same type of guy that we all know that makes good money on his job but seems to always be broke.

    Learn money management techniques and you could some day tell the boss to GFH.

  35. #35
    MVFC182
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    CK I'm wracking my brain on this one!!

    OkC are 13-3 ATS on the road and Wiz are 1-7 ATS last 8, but at the same time OkC are 2-9 ATS against the Wiz.

    Man this game has me torn. I wanna roll with PC play but my gut is saying no!
    Would appreciate some help guys

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