[cocknocker]

In Friday's hardwood action I have a couple of games that I like. First of all as everybody already knows I like the Celtics to dismantle the Bulls, who have had the misfortune of playing two straight overtime games. One in Charlotte, then the next at home against the Clippers, and they are on one day's rest as well. The Celtics have absolutely owned the Bulls in ways that can only be compared to having a dog on a leash. I won't even go into the outcomes of their games, I'll let you do that.

Celtics-11.5 (bought a hook o get of of the key number)

Alright I am now filling in this space where the Cleveland pick once was with the pick of the Missus Styles, and now I am rocking with the Bobcats+4. Memphis has gotten better and so have the Bobcats. When Raja Bell takes two technicals and gets thrown out of a game, that has an effect on the other players around him. They see that he is serious about winning. That's got to rub off on the other players. Take into account that the Bobcats have a good point man in Felton and an emerging star in Augustin, and the Bobs have something cooking there. Holdovers Wallace and Okafor provide depth at needed positions. larry has had a little time to work with his revamped squad, and now it's just a matter of knocking down shots. The over is 4-1 in games where memphis is favored by 4 or less, so totals players you have my blessing on this one even in spite of the Bobcats record of going under the total. Memphis "wet tissue" zone defense is horrible to say the least. the public is all over the Grizzlies 86% to 14% so far on this game. that's sweet news to my ears.

Charlotte+4 with a one point buy if necessary(Style's Pick)

The mother of all blowouts is about to be under way when the Rockets take on the Sacramento Kings, Ron Artest's former team, and he would like nothing better than to destroy them in front of his new home crowd. Nothing like home cooking, and Houston is 10-0 straight up and 7-3 ats in games where they are favored by more than 8 points over their last 10 such contests. maybe they haven't done it as much this year, but they have not always had their full compliment of players together many times this year. Sacramento doesn't get that luck on their side in this game. Everybody's home. Sacramento gives up 106.1 points per game on average, and Houston gives up 93. Wow!

Houston-11.5

The Clips have been a covering machine, but now they face a team more desperate than they in what is their third road game of this eastern conference swing. The Pacers are too stupid to know when to stop shooting, and with Granger going berzerk lately, I don't see how they can't continue pouring points.They have averaged 122.5 points per game in their last two games, so you kind of get the feeling that it's bombs away in this one. But be careful totals players. The under is a perfect 5-0 in games betweenthese two teams in the Hoosier State.

Indiana-4.5 (projected)

Other notables

jamesrg has a solid point about the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons have lost three straight games to the Jazz at home, and I am sure that Coach Curry has pointed this out to them. Apparently, Boozer will bring his rusty ass back into the lineup. he has caused ripples within the organization by taking his time off for recovery to come to the decision that he will opt out of his contract at the end of the season. I actually have Utah as winning this game by 1, but with Boozer coming back, he will mess up a precious few possessions, and therfore I believe that the Pistons get the win in a squeaker. I may or may not play this game, as i have put up plenty of consideration for the Celtics game.


Now let's get some handicapping done!

[shoebox]

CK come on you gotta think about them warriors. Hawks gonna have a huge letdown in this game, after getting robbed by the refs. Plus after the nationally televised game I like the points.

Thoughts??

[W0lfy]

Was kind of feeling Denver in this one. Soo much hype goes into the Melo vs Lebron thing that they pretty much cancel each other out, and it comes down to the rest of the team along with home court. Denver won the last 3 against Cleveland at home, and owes some payback for the 110-99 loss @ Cleveland. I'm also not sure if big Z is playing. Best of luck either way.

[The_Kid]

I couldn't believe Cleveland opened as a dog, even if it is on the road against a streaking Denver Nuggets team. Lebron will absolutely have his way with Melo tomorrow. He'll show him who is boss in the class of 2003.

[cocknocker]

Well folks, the Nuggets are an up and down team. And when I did my homework, I came up with the Cavs winning by 5, which mirrors the power rankings spread oddly enough. Cleveland is playing way too well right now for me to go against them. I have to go with the stronger more consistent team on this one, folks. I would have taken Cleveland even if they were favored in this game by 1, especially with a couple a days rest.

[Spoon]

So far, I'm with you on the Celtics (buying a full point) and the Cavs. I'm looking at a bunch of other games now. I'm confused, why would the linemakers have the Cavs as a dog when everything points to the Cavs? The nuggets are not consistent so I'm thinking the only reason they are the favorite here is because they have home court advantage. I dunno. This better not be one of those games where I get that feeling late in the day tomorrow.

[cnleaf]

MIL
It has lost three games on the road. And it won the last two meetings this season.
Any thoughts,CK?

[lolisaiahlol]

CK, why won't u touch the raptors game, that one is way better then Cleveland +2, Raptors are pissed at loosing 3 in a row, they are ready for the thunders. trust me, its a win!

[cocknocker]

Milwaukee is in a bad position to cover in that game. The Sixers want to run and that became abundantly apparent in their last game as they seemed stuck in mud prior to Elton Brand's injury, and suddenly faster after he left the game. I think that this will open things up for the other parts of their offense now. Milwaukee is a decent team, but they lack depth, or in other words, they have no bench, homes. If anything, I would pound the Sixers and their team total. this will open things up for their offense.

[Wilforth]

I'd take Denver over Cleveland.
Houston will beat Sacs by at least 20 points. So Houston -19 would still be a good line!
Boston is iffy. They tend to play to the level of the opponents.
Boston -3 1Q will be a good play.

[The_Kid]

CK, what do you think about the Nets? Devin Harris facing his former team and with the Nets blowing that lead against the Jazz last game, I think they bounce back strong.

[cocknocker]

lolisiahlol,

The Raptors are teaser material at best. I actually have the Thunder losing by 3 in my rescoring model. The Sonics/Thunder play them well, and the figures don't lie, liars figure. Check it, the Thunder are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ats against the Raptors. With the Raptors you just don't know what you're gonna get night in and night out. They are underacheiving unlike any team in the NBA this year.

[cocknocker]

The Kid,

About the Nets...In a word...No

[SportNut]

Knicks 1h will be my best play for tomorrow. What do you think, Cockface? er..Cocknocker..?

[shoebox]

CK
Other than the warriors im also liking the over in Den/ Cavs both teams are gonna wanna keep a fast pace.
Denver averaging 110 in the last five and clev averaging 97 in last 5.

[cocknocker]

Sportnut,

Milwaukee 53.3 New York 49.4 first half. I see the Bucks taking it, not the Knicks. This is the average 1st half score between these teams.

[Spoon]

I'd take Denver over Cleveland.
Houston will beat Sacs by at least 20 points. So Houston -19 would still be a good line!
Boston is iffy. They tend to play to the level of the opponents.
Boston -3 1Q will be a good play.

Did you cap this game or are you just picking here? I have it differently so I'm just curious why you lean Nuggets.

I also think you have the Celtics confused with the Lakers. Who have the Celtics played down to this year?

[cocknocker]

The Celtics and their referees don't mess around, Wilforth. When they have a team down, they bury them.

[wangichu]

Damn CK that cleveland game is a tough one. I think that's gonna be a cave in spread come morning, and my theory dictates to take the originally favored team with the newly acquired points. On top of that, I just think that the nuggets essentially match cleveland at most points now. I know LeBron is still the best SF (obviously assuming kobe as a SG) but I can still work with a Melo. No big Z means they don't have any bigs that are scorers, which is pefect because that's not where denver scores either, their bigs are more for D. then you get your shooters, mo williams, d-west (sometimes), czerbiak, i'm fine with kleiza and JR smith, and chauncey.

Then after all that, you're adding the whole billups package. Chauncey is the reason that denver plays good ball, just like chauncey was the reason detroit worked. Plus he knows the lebrons as well as just about anyone in the east. If anyone can lead a victory against cleveland, it's him.

and theres more. CLeveland has 4 losses: @BOS 85-90, @NO 92-104 @DET 89-96, @ATL 92-97, never lossing by less than 5, putting it out of reach of a legitimate buyup from the 1 that they HAD. Biggest commonality here is that these are all legitamite contenders in their respective leagues. Their road wins came against Dallas, Chicago, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota... a few decent teams, but nothing that impressive. The best team in there might be dallas and denver spanked them twice, so you can only give cleveland so much credit for doing that before dallas go rolling.

The books want some of that cleveland money back, and they hadn't been running into any dominant teams on the road for a good stretch, so they look all but invincible, which makes everyone salivate over points. The books could have favored them here and gotten split money, its revenge time, just like this game is for the nuggets and here they come to win some cash for vegas. i have learned my lesson trying to fade them a few times. They are an elite team, they had the talent, they just needed to boot the problem child and bring in a leader, and that's chauncey. Doesn't it trip you out a bit to know that in some small way, you're betting against the pistons that you always took in the big game? I'd rather collect with the minority of sharps who aren't falling

DENVER +2 (come game time)

[isiah121]

I won't touch Houston -12. I just learned from King's trend that when they lose with a blowout, they mostly cover the spread the next game.

[danrman]

my monster 9 pt tease for friday:
atlanta+1/2
boston-2
det+7 1/2
tor.+3 1/2
hous.-2 1/2

little worried about detroit

[wangichu]

additionally i hit that boston line early, they just dominate chicago, and the only game that the KG Celt's didn't win by 12+ was the first time they played chicago in the KG era and it was in chicago. Other games have been humiliating for the bulls, plus they are straight exhausted after a couple OT games, and you can't be tired if you're going to face boston

BOS -12

Lakers haven't covered in 7 straight games. Just like the end of last year, they showed to be a team that couldn't cover big spreads at home, they just lose focus over a full 48 in LA. Nevertheless, there's one thing i learned about them on the road, and that is that they seem to take it MUCH more seriously. They play with a high level of defensive intensity, creating turnovers and scoring efficiently. Plus they protect the ball a lot better, and have a lot less turnovers.

On top of the fact the lakers A game showing on the road, this match up is ridiculous. The heat will be lucky to come down with half as many rebounds as the lakers. Haslem, beasely, marion, and d-wade are barely going to be able to outrebound kobe, luke, ariza, and vlad rad, let alone tear one from odom, pau, or bynum. WOW, the lakers are tall at every position and height is the heats kryptonite.

Plus lakers almost got caught napping on the knicks and barely pulled one out. You best believe that Phil is going to get up their @**es about that and get them set and ready for some road action after getting lulled to sleep by the comfort of their homecrowd. When the lakers are on the road, they do it right, and when they do it right, they get leads early and handle their business. They might fall asleep on D when they're up by 20, but they'll get like 10 offensive rebounds if they need to force some points.

They have the magic and hornets on this four game road stretch and they will make sure they start their way there with a W over the heat.

LAL -5 (guess) 1st half
LAL -9 (guess) game

and i wouldn't be all that stunned to see it drop a little lower for those who some how think the heat have been playing well enough and wade can some how hang with kobe even though kobe has an full grown army and wade has a group of goonies. Plus people will think it's still time to fade the lakers.

[Broncos9798]

First off let me say I havnt bet and am not sure that I will actually bet the Cleveland vs. Denver game. I do want to just add to what all you are talking about with this game.

Carmelo Anthony will be up for this game. He wants to own Lebron especially when it comes to a big nationally televised game. I do not believe he will own Lebron by any means....however he will nullify his scoring enough for the Nuggets to get the win. You can see this during the Olympics when Carmelo was trying to steal the spotlights, and that was when they were on the same team.

To what CK said Cleveland is the more consistent team, however they are not the better or more talented teams. Take for example one of our wildcards JR Smith. This guy can come out and start absolutly owning a team(Dallas this week) or he can be complete garbage a single handly loss the game.

I guess my main point is that this game is in no way safe either way. Cleveland could walk onto the court and dominate the whole night(and everybody will be like isnt it obvious) or the Nuggets will arrive and protect their home court. Hard to say but I wouldnt go to big either way on this game.

Good Luck all tommorow.

Thanks for the writeup CK!

DENVER +2 (come game time)

[The_Kid]

Other notables

jamesrg has a solid point about the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons have lost three straight games to the Jazz at home, and I am sure that Coach Curry has pointed this out to them. Apparently, Boozer will bring his rusty ass back into the lineup. he has caused ripples within the organization by taking his time off for recovery to come to the decision that he will opt out of his contract at the end of the season. I actually have Utah as winning this game by 1, but with Boozer coming back, he will mess up a precious few possessions, and therfore I believe that the Pistons get the win in a squeaker. I may or may not play this game, as i have put up plenty of consideration for the Celtics game.


Now let's get some handicapping done!

It doesn't look like Boozer will be playing tomorrow...

Carlos Boozer missed his 15th straight game Wednesday with a quad/knee injury and will have a second MRI on Thursday as he continues to deal with soreness in his knee.

"I want to see what's going on because it's a little sore and I was hoping it would be done being sore by now," Boozer said. Asked if he expected to be out longer, he answered: "We'll see what the MRI says, but if it's not healing like I'd like it to, I will be out for a little longer than I expected."

[wangichu]

Since winning their first home game in the post Eddie Jordan era, the wizards have hosted orlando, atlanta, portland, the lakers, detroit (who they beat), boston, and indy (finally not underperforming). To them hosting the 76ers will be a welcome repreive, especially without elton. Add to that this is a revenge game; these two squads went toe to toe 6 days ago, right after mo cheeks was canned. I'm hoping for some points here though, because that's one of the few perks to betting on weak teams, but i may still play it up to a -2, much past that is pushing it. I will also play this game like a half time wager because i like my other 3 game wagers too much to put the same money on a squad like the wiz.

WAS +?/ML

i've tossed some other ideas around, but none of them seem as good as these, so i'm probably just going to play them unless something else happens, so here's the card:

big plays:
BOS -11.5
DEN +2
LAL game

medium plays:
LAL 1st half
WAS game/ML

feeling good about tomorrow, but i'll be following the board for some good idea bouncing.

actually think i might even play a teaser with

BOS
DEN
LAL
WAS

[cocknocker]

That is true Wang,

If the Cavs are favored come morning by more than 1, then i would probably have to go the other way, or I may just leave it alone altogether, which is a viable option as I haven't invested a quarter on this game yet. With all of the intangibles,it is shaping up to be a very hard game to handicap. If Ziggy and Boobie were playing, then this would be a no brainer. Their absence makes this a tough call though..

As far as the Lakers are concerned, I don't think that they will be favored by 9 in Miami. I have them as a 4.5 point favorite and winning by 7. Anything over a 7 point favorite line is too much, and that game automatically gets teased right along with Toronto on mine, as i think that that would be a favorable teaser with two out of conference teams being utilized. The Lakers have a two deep advantage at each and every position on the floor against the Miami ballclub. This game could very easily get out of hand, much like the Bucks did to the Heat, if the Lakers come out hot and Miami comes out cold. They can ill afford to fall behind the Lakers by too much early.

The Kid,

If Boozer doesn't play, then the Jazz may just be it. They have a good flow right now, but the only thing that bothers me about that game is the third road game syndrome, and the Jazz are a notoriously less than average road team, although they have been better of late. Should be interestig. Detroit must get their swag back about themselves at home.

[wangichu]

The Celtics and their referees don't mess around, Wilforth. When they have a team down, they bury them.

no kidding... that crap's funny

[cocknocker]

Alright, i know what I'll do...Instead of taking a hard decision on a hard game, I'll make an easy decision on an easy game. Everyone in the entire free world knows by now that the Memphis Grizzlies have gotten better now. At the same time, the Bobcats have improved their roster too. And they have had time to practice together now with 2 days of rest in beween their last game against Chicago. Larry Brown and Michael Jordan have gotten a good mix of players together and working to improve the culture and mindset of the Bobcats. And when I look up consensus numbers and see that 86% of the public is on the Grizzlies in a game that they are expected to win (being favored), I will gladly take the points and roll with the Missus pick for tomorrow, Charlotte+4 (with a one point buy). I mean when you have two subpar teams playing one another, you might as well take the points, no?

If i wait until the morning, I believe that the line will go up to 3.5 with consensus numbers like that. Games where memphis has been favored by 4 or less points are also 4-1 for the over as well.

Cleveland+1 NO PLAY

I have replaced that play with

Style's Pick o' the Day

Charlotte+4 (with a 1 point buy)

[Ivic]

CK

what you think about playing under 195,5 in celtics game
and
under 200,5 in houston game?

[joanapoker]

Just one bet so far for today:

BOS -11.5 (I totaly agree with CK on this one)!

good luck all

P.S. can anyone tell me what the consensus is for the CHI/BOS game? Thx.

[willpies]

Raptors are horrible i reckon the thunder will win quote ME

[mundane]

"battle of the ats machines!"

knicks -2.5 ...and rising. so do a ck move and buy! it could be the difference between cashing it or getting burned by the books!

wow, where to start on this one! well here goes it.

knicks are on good spot to get a win against the bucks (5-12 away) in this game. true that bucks have owned knicks in the last 2 matchups but this is a different knicks team. they're just oozing with tremendous confidence right now esp after a good showing on the road 2-3. losing by 2 in lal, 8 in pho & 5 in chi. wins were all dd pts against sac and nj! and before those road games they beat the pistons by dd pts and only lost by 3 in atl. tell me those last 7 games aren't impressive?!? last time they've faltered was against king lebron and the cavs but who hasn't? right after that game, they've been a covering machine 7-0! now they're at home (7-4 su & ats) with 3 days rest (1-0 ats) of course dantoni continously working out the kinks with his players and what u have here is almost a no-brainer. i say almost as there is no such thing as a lock!

and here's another angle ive looked at... bucks have a hard time playing against offensive not to mention explosive teams. see recent games against gsw, suns, lal among others and u'll see what i mean. lately, they just cant seem to contain offense when it's coming from everywhere (1 to 5 spot) - kinda like what the make of knicks right now. they might have worked it out already having 1 day off, a tough loss in phi and their coach on their case right now but i still feel that knicks are gonna show up in this game like they did last time against detroit! which is why i think eager ny fans are anticipating their return at msg to see their budding knicks squad get a win for them this holiday! (knicks next home game is on 26th). and yeah, they'll need to try a lot harder to get a decisive win on this one as they'll play celtics next.

so, 0-2 against the bucks?!? well... payback is a bitch!

knicks ftw!

again, just my 2 cents for this awesome daily trend that ck got going! so far i think im 3-0 with my "2 cents" here! hoping it continues!

bol to all! let's keep beating the books!

[jalein]

Just locked Cleveland at a pick and Bos -11.5 (buying the hook).

I smell money.

The Cleveland game was the toughest for me. Denver is playing well. They are a whole new team with Chauncey just like Detroit being a whole new team (for the worse) without him. Cavs are on a roll and I will roll with the tide. thus...cleveland at a pick em for me.

[joanapoker]

I know many of you don't like trends (and this can't even be called a trend)....but in the last 3 days 14 of the 17 games played have gone SU.....that's a lot....could it start tonight a ATS revenge?? eheheh

but not on the celtisc game ehehe

[SportNut]

Sportnut,

Milwaukee 53.3 New York 49.4 first half. I see the Bucks taking it, not the Knicks. This is the average 1st half score between these teams.

Thanks . I've been reading up your posts lately, great work.