[Mirar Baseball]

Four teams in, two teams out. So there are six possible first round combinations, since every playoff team except Indiana can finish as high as #2 and as low as #4. So... nothing is set in stone, yet. New York's remaining two games are against Indiana and Connecticut. Plus Indiana plays Atlanta on the final day of the regular season (Sunday).

Here's what Round 1 and possible Round 2 matchups would look if the playoffs started today...

East: Round 1

Indiana vs New York (2-1)
80-81 (HL) 11.06
86-80 (AW) 12.06
82-71 (HW) 14.08
Indiana is a 60-65% favorite.

Connecticut vs Atlanta (2-2)
99-92 (HW) 01.08
88-94 (AL) 20.08
96-87 (HW) 22.08
85-74 (AL) 07.09
team with HC wins this series 55% of the time... so as of this moment Connecticut a very slight (52-53%) favorite... If they hold on, my line guess for the series is -140 Conn Atl +120. I will take Atlanta.



East: Round 2

Indiana vs Atlanta (0-3)
74-84 (AL) 19.06
80-86 (HL) 28.08
90-92 (AL) 31.08
Atlanta a 55-60% favorite. I expect the Dream to make it 4-0 this coming Sunday, and challenge Connecticut for #2 spot (and HC in the 2-3 first round series). Both teams have loaded veteran lineups and with no home cooking calls Atlanta should be an automatic bet with the way the regular season series played out. Line guess: Indiana -140, Atlanta +120. BIG BET on Atlanta.

Indiana vs Connecticut (3-2)
75-70 (HW) 26.06
90-78 (HW) 13.07
71-76 (AL) 18.07
69-58 (AW) 29.07
55-83 (AL) 03.09
Indiana a 55% favorite. I expect the odds to be right on. If I'm wrong and the Sun are more of an underdog, I'll take Connecticut at +140 or better for medium stakes.

Atlanta vs New York (2-3)
88-94 (HL) 05.06
79-58 (AW) 12.06
87-81 (HW) 01.07
69-91 (AL) 13.07
75-85 (HL) 03.08
To me this is a 50-50 series

Connecticut vs New York (1-2)
59-68 (HL) 16.07
85-79 (HW) 20.07
81-84 (AL) 19.08
This series is a true toss-up. Can I bet against either team producing a sweep?

Full text with pictures here :
http://fourbooks.wordpress.com/2011/...rence-preview/

[ragiche]

[Mirar Baseball]

Do you agree about Atlanta? I mean:

1) Will Atlanta be a +150 underdog in a series vs Indiana?
2) Do they have at least a 50% chance to win such series?

I'd love your honest opinion; here or in PM

[ragiche]

I agree on the conn/atlanta series. Same projection around +110 to +120 series price and -125 for the sun. The dream are playing their best basketball down the stretch and playing as a whole. I think the dream can steal one on the road,when it does the game is over. The sun only relies mostly on tina charles.If jones and lawson can have a great night it will be an awesome series but they(sun) i think can't win on the road against atlanta.
On the west,most are on the lynx to win it all but I'm seeing a Fever/Mercury part 2 here and the Fever winning it and the east brings the title home.

BOL to your plays tonight.

[Mirar Baseball]

New York could move up if they win their remaining two games, and Atlanta loses to Indiana on Saturday.

This means the series I'm looking forward to: Indiana (HC) vs Atlanta.

What do you think is going to happen in this series? Do you have a different answer if this is Round II (Eastern finals) rather than Round I matchup?

[bleek88]

I like ATL right now, u could see them in the Finals

[Mirar Baseball]

I wonder how motivated Indiana is going to be in their last game. It doesnt look like they are skiving. During today's loss at New York, four of five Fever starters played around 30 minutes

[Mirar Baseball]

None of the eight playoff teams with anything to play for... All Overs?

[Mirar Baseball]

None of the eight playoff teams with anything to play for... All Overs?

under by 28 new york @ connecticut
over by 23 atlanta @ indiana (no catchings!)
over by 14 minnesota @ phoenix
over by 54 san antonio @ tulsa (with overtime)
over by 10 chicago @ seattle

[Mirar Baseball]

I think the West will be pretty straightforward. Higher seeds annihilating the competition. Anyone giving Phoenix or SA a chance in Round 1?

[bleek88]

Mirar, it depends on the health of Penny Taylor, I can see them stealing game 1.

[Mirar Baseball]

http://wp.me/p1FZs6-2A - Round 1 Series prices on my blog

[bleek88]

Ty mirar

[Mirar Baseball]

http://wp.me/p1FZs6-2J - updated Round 1 series prices on my blog

[Mirar Baseball]

My only question for tonight is: can San Antonio outperform Phoenix?

[Mirar Baseball]

First bet of the postseason:

100/190 Atlanta ML after the 1Q

[alamo]

First bet of the postseason: 100/190 Atlanta ML after the 1Q

[Mirar Baseball]

Second bet:

226/200 Over 83.5 second half ATL@CON

[Mirar Baseball]

I'm sorry to point it out, but you are a moron.

That was NOT a 1Q wager; none of bets here will be 1H or 1Q. It's a different thread. The only thing that's the same from my - highly successful - first half wagers thread is your utter stupidity.

Get lost

[Mirar Baseball]

Can you dig it? I'm on Minnesota ML at -200 and SA +9.5 at -102

[tullamore21]

Minnesota will lose tonight. Stars seem to control the game, hitting everything from downtown.

[tullamore21]

I hate when those things happening. 10 of 30 for the Lynx, while the Texans are 7 of 15 3Pt...
what to say? i was huge on Minnesota ML

[Dharmonize]

Minnesota will lose tonight. Stars seem to control the game, hitting everything from downtown.

Both home teams won yesterday. Don't tell me that tonight, both dogs are gonna win su... I mean, Atlanta was actually just a dog on the paper, but still... Hope Minny will step it up in the second half!

[tullamore21]

Both home teams won yesterday. Don't tell me that tonight, both dogs are gonna win su... I mean, Atlanta was actually just a dog on the paper, but still... Hope Minny will step it up in the second half!

oh god, they are not focused on defense. Not only the offensive rebs they let, but the perimeter defense is awful too.

[tullamore21]

This is close and i was not expecting such a close game. Minnesota's biggest lead is 2 point lead... That's ridiculous. Play some ball! Don't kill me again. m sick of it

[tullamore21]

ok they don't want to win. stupid Lynx

[tullamore21]

is this fixed or not?
4 free throws missed
answer me please

[tullamore21]

is this fixed or not?
4 free throws missed
answer me please

damn, it was the biggest bet of the season for me, at this stupid ML. I am shaking...

[Dharmonize]

Absolutely nerve-wracking experience... this game must have cost the Lynx backers years of life... Anyway, it's home

[alamo]

Better to be lucky than good

[Mirar Baseball]

Better to be lucky than stupid. Tail me and you'll be smart.

Taking Seattle +230 ML at the timeout in 2Q, down 4 pts

[longhorn2011]

solid THANKS....

[Mirar Baseball]

THANK YOU for not bitching!

Take it like a man.

[Mirar Baseball]

You won't go wrong taking every underdog in game 3.

[Mirar Baseball]

Indiana vs New York (2-1)
80-81 (HL) 11.06
86-80 (AW) 12.06
82-71 (HW) 14.08
Indiana is a 60-65% favorite.

Connecticut vs Atlanta (2-2)
99-92 (HW) 01.08
88-94 (AL) 20.08
96-87 (HW) 22.08
85-74 (AL) 07.09
team with HC wins this series 55% of the time... so as of this moment Connecticut a very slight (52-53%) favorite... If they hold on, my line guess for the series is -140 Conn Atl +120. I will take Atlanta.

It seems that the bet of the day is Indiana OVER. My initial thinking was that it will be all defense. It probably will. But New York should be able to score in bunches like they usually do (78 ppg against the Fever this season).

Indiana's full court press is ineffective because New York's best player scorer and passer happens to be Pondexter - their point guard. New York is also the only team in the playoffs whose five starters have scored in double figures over the first two games. They get everybody involved, so double teaming isn't really an option for Indiana either.

A lot of points coming up.