The NBA Finals are here starting tonight with ABC's telecast of Game 1 at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the starting five, plus a look at coaching, benches and one thing you can't count out, intangibles.
Center breakdown: Let's start our analysis of the matchups in the paint, where Miami features one of the best big men of all-time in Shaquille O'Neal. Not only does the LSU product own a size and strength advantage over every big man in the game, but he also has rings -- three of 'em to be exact. O'Neal has been to the Finals five times, losing twice (once with Orlando vs. Houston, also with Lakers versus Pistons.), so that's a boat-load of experience that can't be matched by his opponents. For good measure, O'Neal averages 29.3 points per game against Dallas, his highest such career scoring mark against any team.
O'Neal will go against DeSagana Diop, who won his fair share of battles at the defensive end against Tim Duncan during the San Antonio series. Diop has developed into a more-than-adequate defender, but he isn't much of a threat offensively, especially with his back to the basket. Diop will get a few junk buckets, but Shaq won't have to exert too much energy defensively. Big edge to the Heat here.
Centers
Miami - Shaquille O'Neal vs. Dallas - DeSagana Diop
O'Neal Big Edge
Power Forward breakdown: When we break down the matchup at power forward, the tables are turned. Dallas owns the considerable advantage with one of the league's top-five players, Dirk Nowitzki, squaring off against Udonis Haslem. Nowitzki is the best shooting big man we've seen since Larry Bird. The German product can step out to 3-point range, bury mid-range jumpers all night or take it to the hole strong off the dribble. The latter trait is the part of his game he's improved the most in the past year, as Nowitzki scored at will by taking Tim Thomas and Shawn Marion to the basket in the Phoenix series.
Pat Riley loves players like Haslem, who does the little things that don't show up in the box score. He boxes out, takes charges and dives for loose balls. Haslem won't be expected to play help-side defense, with his sole responsibility to make life difficult for Nowitzki. One thing Haslem, a former star at Miami Senior High School and the University of Florida, has going for him is his strength. He'll fight for position with Nowitzki and try to force him to make catches away from the basket instead of on the low block. Offensively, Haslem doesn't get many shots, but he's a strong finisher and can knock down the baseline jumper when left alone.
Power Forwards
Miami - Udonis Haslem vs. Dallas - Dirk Nowitzki
Nowitzki Big Edge
Small Forward breakdown: Antoine Walker is such a wild-card player. He dominated at the collegiate level at Kentucky and has a great set of offensive skills. However, his tendency to force long-range jumpers can be maddening at times. Translation: When Walker plays well, he can be outstanding. On the flip side, his decision-making is shaky and his overzealous efforts can be costly. All that said, Walker has been very good in these playoffs -- so far.
Adrian Griffin is a role player for the Mavs, their version of Haslem. All Avery Johnson wants from Griffin is solid defense, a little rebounding and effort galore.
Small Forwards
Miami - Antoine Walker vs. Dallas - Adrian Griffin
Walker Slight Edge
Shooting Guard breakdown: Dwyane Wade has emerged as one of the league's top players and one that elevates his game during the post-season. The former Marquette star missed two practices this week with flu-like symptoms, but that shouldn't be a factor thanks to the long rest since the Heat eliminated Detroit last Friday. Dallas will likely send a lot of double-teams at Wade, hoping to force him to take more perimeter shots. Wade is at his best driving to the basket for short pull-up jumpers.
Josh Howard is an excellent all-around player. He can defend with his length presenting problems for a lot of smaller guards. The Wake Forest product can also score inside and out, and he rebounds too.
Shooting Guards
Miami - Dwyane Wade vs. Dallas - Josh Howard
Edge Wade
Point Guard breakdown: Jason Williams is an inconsistent player, brilliant at times like during his 21-point effort in Game 6 against Detroit, when he knocked down his first 10 shots from the floor. But there are other times when Williams gets turnover prone, and his lack of size sometimes makes him a liability defensively. Still, he might be the best ball handler in the league and he can create offensively for both himself and his teammates.
Jason Terry can flat-out stroke the jumper. In fact, he rarely misses open looks, so Williams can't get lost defending the pick-and-roll. This time last year, the criticism of Terry was his lack of playoff experience, but that can't be said now. He was brilliant against both San Antonio and Phoenix, and there's no reason to think he won't produce in the Finals.
Point Guards
Miami - Jason Williams vs. Dallas - Jason Terry
Terry Slight Edge
Coaching breakdown: The coaching edge has to go to Pat Riley, who has won four championships and has now taken three different teams to the Finals. Granted, he hasn't won a title since 1989, but he exudes a moxy that rubs off on his players. Riley's ability to get a team prepared is unparalleled in his profession.
We can't heap enough praise at Avery Johnson for the job he's done with the Mavericks. He has completely changed the mindset of this team from a free-wheeling offensive juggernaut to a defensive-minded squad that can still put up plenty of points. And Johnson has his own unique pedigree in the Finals. He was outstanding in the 1999 Finals, making the Knicks pay for doubling down on Tim Duncan and David Robinson by draining a ton of open looks, particularly in the Game 5 clincher at Madison Square Garden.
Coaching
Miami - Pat Riley vs. Dallas - Avery Johnson
Edge Miami
Bench breakdown: Both clubs get substantial contributions from their respective benches. Dallas gets instant offense from Jerry Stackhouse, who was clutch in Game 7 at San Antonio, when he knocked down several crucial jumpers off the dribble in overtime. Not only does Stackhouse provide offense, but he also gives the Mavs a nasty streak. Erick Dampier will spell Diop at center, providing six additional fouls to be spent on Shaq. Keith Van Horn is another bench player that can score, and he can hurt the Heat if he gets clean looks from beyond the arc. Finally, Devin Harris is an energy bunny that might cause big problems for Gary Payton with his speed.
Speaking of Payton, he gives the Heat a veteran point guard who can lead the offense. The savvy veteran can still score, too. James Posey is another important player for Miami off the bench. He can defend guards and might even go against Nowitzki some. Offensively, Posey can run the floor and hit 3's when left open. Did we mention Alonzo Mourning yet? ‘Zo can’t give you 30 minutes anymore, but he can give you 15-20 minutes of utter defensive tenacity, and he still finishes like an animal in the lane offensively. If Shaq gets into foul trouble, ‘Zo’s value will be paramount.
Bench
Miami vs. Dallas
PUSH
Intangibles breakdown: I give Miami the edge in intangibles. This team has a great mix of veterans (Shaq, 'Zo, Walker and Payton) and youthful energy players (Williams, Wade, Haslem and Posey). It has a pair of go-to guys in Wade and O'Neal, complimented by role players that focus on defense (Haslem and Posey), and guards who can knock down open 3's (Williams and Payton). And that's the mix that Riley assembled and has now meshed into a championship unit.
That's not to be critical of Dallas, which also has a nice mix of versatility. But in the end, the Mavs take a backseat to the Heat's overall personnel. They just hope that Nowitzki's brilliance and home-court advantage can even things out. We shall see…
The only thing that rubs off Riley on his players
is all that greas e he plasters on his hair with.
Shaq might get off and score alot. But the Mavs
will win this one for sure. This hole area is got
Mavericks fever right now.
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