[cocknocker]

I have been crunching up some numbers. It's mid week, so favored home teams is where it's at. So far I like for Wednesday:

Miami-8.5

The Blazers are on their 4th game in seven days and they have scored over 300 points (312) over there last three, the last of which was a 106-99 win at Orlando. Serious fade material the Blazers are in this spot. With 2 out of their last three ats wins being against playoff teams from a year ago and star Brandon Roy having back spasms, the heat may run them out of the gym. Portland was already 0-2 ats on the road in Miami with dog spreads of 8.5 or more. So when th spread is high, Miami usually blows them off.

Washington -11.5 (Still smokin' on this one)

The Jazz are somewhat in a similar position as the Blazers playing their 5th game in 8 days and also scoring 399 points in their last 4 games. Washington is plain hungry for a win, and they may do a wire to wire job in this one. This line is absurd to look at and the public will drive it down when they get ahold of it. WHich suits me fine, because I would like a shorter number like 8 or so. Because I do have concerns. The Utah Jazz are the Kings of the back to back going 9-1 straight up and 6-4 ats. And Washington is 1-9-2 ats at home against the Jazz as well. But I did see some signs of fatigue in the undermanned Jazz last night against Philly in the third quarter...They have got to be tired.

Orlando-7

The Thunder have covered in 4 straight games. This is their first home game after a long road trip. That streak of covering ends here with Orlando starting out on a road trip that includes stops in Dallas and Charlotte. The Magic will get well during this road trip. The Magic usually rip holes in Oklahoma City in November on the road anyway. And no Chris Wilcox does not help to stop Dwight Howard from picking his shot.

Hornets-1.5

The Hornets are rightfully favored in this game an they will defend the home court well. Posey can guard anybody, and can give tips on how the Celtics shut down the Lakers last year to his new team. The Lakers are on a back to back after a road win as a favorite. Blue Bees for me in this matchup.

Celtics-10.5

This line is a bargain considering what they normally do to the Hawks at home. The Hawks come in on their 4th game in 5 nights and having scored 312 points in their last three games overall. Boston has a stigma attached to them that they have problems with the Hawks. Usually the Celtics are favored by 15 points against the Hawks at home. 10.5? Wow! I love this line. This one may get ugly very quickly.


I will have a late night pick tomorrow

[l7ustin]

good luck i disagree on a few but enjoyed reading the writeups...


only one i am betting on against u is lakers but i hope you win the rest

[mundane]

what do u think about the raptors -5.5 @ home?

[I.R.B]

Posey giving Tips

[pirate]

I don't understand where you got the lines -8.5 on Miami and 11 on Wash....My book shows Miami -2.5 and Wash plus 3????

[skieracer]

bucks -2 1/2 knicks +4 1/2 lakers o193 1/2 suns -3 1/2 i like these picks

[oso]

Ck-
What is your top pick, I am a little down and want to get it back with one swing. I want to put $750-$1000 on a game which one? Help a brutha out!

[MoneySportsGuy]

I like Toronto -5
Utah -3
Mia -2
SAC +6

deciding which to play and going to be more as well if my number comes up

[NYCKEV]

Good morning my G, heres what I like today.

Indi -1.5, Tor - 5.5, Lakers +1.5 and I'll also take San An + 2.5.

I gotta disagree wit u on the NO pick ova LA. I think LA is the real thing this yr and will take it. I'll take the points with the 6-0 team and the best player in the league (Kobe).

[MoneySportsGuy]

I dont even like the Lakers but La+1.5 and ATL +10.5 look good to me as well.
I also like the IND -1.5 it opened at -3 I think so interesting dropping that much already.

[cocknocker]

I guess the lines posted on Sportsinsights were incorrect. Allow me to make the following revisions:

Miami-1.5
Washington+3.5
Orlando-7
New Orleans-1.5
Celtics-10.5

Oso, if the line stays the same on Boston-10.5 with all of the money in the entire free world on the Hawks, I think that that is the best play. I also like Orlando about the same too. So if I had to take a pick it would be between those two.

Save some of your winnings and put them to the side. I have a late night ats shocker if the line continues doing what it is doing. You may have to buy a few points for safety measures and to keep your winning percentage intact, but it looks good so far.

I.R.B., that is a common practice in all sports

Mundane

I don't like taking teams in their first game back off a road trip. Wait until 11/16 and take them against Miami, who will be ripe for the picking.

[cocknocker]

Wake up Mafia Boys! It's HOG play day! Home teams on the bump (Wednesday)!

[IrwinFletcher]

Yo homes... put the pipe down.. you're numbers look way off there.. unless I'm missing something

Mia -2 - Looks like Marion is down for tonight, but is he worth that 5-6pts??
Was -3.5 - Pretty sure this line is a result of their W with Deron on the floor last night whose D is underrated... I like this one to go under the number 195..

Still looking over all gotta get some injury info..

Keep rollin bro..

OOPS.. Looks like you beat me to it..

Nice to be able to edit posts on this site..

[oso]

Ck-
I You are mad capper! Your write ups seriously are right on. Keep me up to date on the late night pick, will it be a PC play???? I jumped on all of them last year! Are you still in Oaktown? I am in Modesto. I will wait for final word. I like the Hawks(what about back to back tough game chicago) , Otown scares me with their helter skelter games.

Hope your wife joins in, she was on point last year! She is becoming an expert on sac town? I like the clipps tonight...Hope I am not stealing your thunder about tonight.

Out

[MoneySportsGuy]

oso

goodluck tonight but I'm on SAC +7.5 tonight I know Clips at home but SAC can keep it close I think in this contest.

[Wizard]

i'm still chuckling at this thread. How you tried to give sage advice on 2 games where the lines were so ludicrously off and you took wrong side on both i have absolutely no idea. you wanted Washington at -11.5, but hoped it would go down to -8, huh? And you loved Miami at -8.5 as well?

well if that's the case i'm guessing you are going to bet your life savings on that parlay.

and they may hit, but how you didnt know those lines were wrong is beyond me.

you didnt even MENTION how off the lines seemed to be

now THAT'S mad capping skills

[maddogmadden86]

hey wizard why you gotta through hate on this thread if you dont like what you see dont post CK is a proven capper bro just because he had some shit messed up which he then fixed doesnt mean he is any less of a capper, wait and see bitch

[oso]

Money I may lay off I have to see if sac town can play on the road, baron might have the socal boys fired up!

[oso]

cmon Wiz why all the hate?? This guy can cap, to the tune of something like a 65-15 stretch last year. Trust me, don't use his plays but follow them, he know what he is talkng about. He made a mistake we all do at times lets not blast him out of the water! Just watch!!

[Wizard]

oso, i have no problem following the pics, but if you saw a line that said Lakers -12 for this game would you really start giving out reasons to pick the Hornets or would you first say "this line is WAY off"?

[oso]

I would take the hornets! I feel you, but trust me CK knows hoop!

[maddogmadden86]

trust us all he does know his hoops, whos that chick in your mod wizard?

[roasthawg]

With you on the Hornets, against you on the Hawks. I think Atl keeps it close, 10 points should be good enough for a good Hawks team.

[Wizard]

that's my friend, lisa. omg she's hot. lol

[maddogmadden86]

your real life friend? lol if so where u from son hook a brother up lol

[Wizard]

hahaa...yes...she's an actual friend of mine. she is married, tho i live in sunny huntington beach, california

[cocknocker]

It's okay, Wizard.

I got my lines from Sportsinsights, and man were they far off from the actual number, but as stated, I would have taken the Wizards-8 in this position truth be told. The fact that they are +3.5 at home makes the play all the more better, and yes I am still taking them, and yes I am still taking Miami-1.5. One look and you will see that I got erroneous information from my trusted website. It happens. But I do know that the Wizards are starving for a win, and they have had time off to work out their kinks, and I see a wire to wire job in this game, which means they very well may end up winning by 8 points.

As a side note, you have to be very careful about what you say to or about me. The members of the Knocker Mafia are very protective over me, as the world of forums is a fragile one. One misstep and I can be banned from the site and they can lose out on valuable information. It happened before, and they don't want see it happen again. So they are very protective. For my part, I won't engage in any back and forth. I will do my best to post winners so that the average joe can enjoy the same type of success that I do. I'm only here to help out, not show anyone up. If you go to Sportsinsights you will see the erroneous numbers in the live odds section. I have already apologized for the error and atoned for it by posting the correct lines. that's as far as I will go with this. Man, Lisa is hot !

Oso (that means bear in Spanish right?)

No you have not stolen my thunder. I can't expect for another Knocker Mafia type to no see what I see. I am watching that Clippers line very closely, and Sacramento had their chance to get the "excuse me" cover with K-Mart out last night. Tonight they face the hapless Clips who like Washington are starving for a victory. The Clips will get well on this homestand, and possibly sweep it. Sacramento sucks on the road and they are horrible in back to back situations going 1-4 ats in their last 5 back ends of back to back games. The Clips are 3-1 ats their last four games at home against the Kings, with average victory margins of 16.5 in the last two games.

[MoneySportsGuy]

I like that info on SAC and Clips but I still dont believe in the Clips. I am going SAC and agree with roast I think ATL keeps it within 10 in Boston. Think its going to be low scoring game so I can see something like 88-94 Boston win.

[4bidden]

hahaa...yes...she's an actual friend of mine. she is married, tho i live in sunny huntington beach, california

I'm in Newport - hook me up!

[cocknocker]

The public is all over the Jazz 93% to 7%, and the line is now Washington+4.5 which means that I will be waiting right up until gametime and then taking the Wizards, buying a point if the line is between a key number. Hopefully the line will go up to 5 and then I can get the Wizards at +6 by buying a point.

The Hornets are a 27% to 73% minority, which suits me just fine. I have elected to play this one at it's current line of -1.5.

The Heat are -2 -105 which again suits me fine. I have already played this game at the current spread of -2, as I feel that it will go up to 2.5 or 3

Orlando will have a late break and the line will go up to 7.5 or 8 by gametime. I have already played his one at -7.

The Celtics line went up from 10 to 10.5 with 69% of bettors on the Hawks, which is the kind of movement that I desire (reverse line movement). I will take it back to 10 by taking the hook off and playing it at Boston-10. I have a feeling that the reverse line movement will continue and the spread will get larger.

So the only ones that I am waiting on are the Wizards line, currently +4.5 and rising and the Clips. I have already played all the rest of them with half units ($500.00) except the Celtics which cost me $600.00

[WestsidePete]

The public is all over the Jazz 93% to 7%, and the line is now Washington+4.5 which means that I will be waiting right up until gametime and then taking the Wizards, buying a point if the line is between a key number. Hopefully the line will go up to 5 and then I can get the Wizards at +6 by buying a point.

The Hornets are a 27% to 73% minority, which suits me just fine. I have elected to play this one at it's current line of -1.5.

The Heat are -2 -105 which again suits me fine. I have already played this game at the current spread of -2, as I feel that it will go up to 2.5 or 3

Orlando will have a late break and the line will go up to 7.5 or 8 by gametime. I have already played his one at -7.

The Celtics line went up from 10 to 10.5 with 69% of bettors on the Hawks, which is the kind of movement that I desire (reverse line movement). I will take it back to 10 by taking the hook off and playing it at Boston-10. I have a feeling that the reverse line movement will continue and the spread will get larger.

So the only ones that I am waiting on are the Wizards line, currently +4.5 and rising and the Clips. I have already played all the rest of them with half units ($500.00) except the Celtics which cost me $600.00

I agree with all of this and am playing most myself already....nice to see others thinking the same thing GL tonite

[WestsidePete]

A teaser to think about at -120 that I'm playing
Boston -3.5
Orlando pk
Wizards +11.5

[wangichu]

Liking the write ups CK...

So far, my personal looks are

HOU +3.5

the line is low, and with a good 60% of the money on the suns, the line still moved .5 towards the rockets side... they have a way of winning the games they should lose and losing the games they should win... well going into phoenix to play a hot suns team, it seems like this line indicates the suns are the play... which is why i fade the public and play the rockets

ATL 1Q (still waiting on the line on sportsbook

If i was playing the game spread, i'd be all over the celtics, but i like this look a little better Hawks have covered all but one 1Q spread and it was at home where last year, they did start a little sluggish at times. Nevertheless, even though they frequently struggled on the road in the second half LAST year (something they've pretty well corrected this year) they did a decent job of coming out fast on the road, something they've almost perfected this year. C's meanwhile, are starting a little sluggish early this year, covering only 2 1Q spreads (1 at home vs CHI, one on road at HOU). I think that they tend to need a little motivation to step up their game in the form of falling behind in the first quarter and i think the hawks give it to them... i expect a game in the mold of the one vs. TOR, but i'll probably be off it after the first Q

LAL 1Q or 1st half (still looking into this one)

lakers may not hold on in New Orleans, but after that dominant 4Q last night that helped me make my 1st half money back, they will be riding momentum into this game. That momentum should get them to an early lead or at least a tie, i normally prefer the 1st quarter but sometimes it's the fresh second unit that comes in and runs them to a lead when up against inferior opponent second teams.

outside of those plays... it is a good time to fade portland with the man child coming back so i like MIA, i like fading the jazz any time they are favored on the road (and play them as dogs ie yesterday) and as CK said the wiz are hungry for that W, and Orlando caught that same spread in memphis, so i like their chances, but with the pub all over them, i'm thinking the first half spread may be safer, but i'm still marinating on that one

tailing the mafia plays of MIA -1.5 and WAS +4.5, stewing on ORL 1st half

CK MAFIA REPRESENT!!!

(let me know your thoughts CK)

[MoneySportsGuy]

I like Houston and PHX UNDER 199 as well

going to see how this Boston ATL game plays out I still just have a feeling ATL is going to compete and Boston will take them lightly which could be bad

[wangichu]

I like Houston and PHX UNDER 199 as well

going to see how this Boston ATL game plays out I still just have a feeling ATL is going to compete and Boston will take them lightly which could be bad

i'm not saying ATL won't compete, but there is NO WAY IN HELL that boston takes them lightly. The hawks rattled their cage last year in that 7 game set, and honestly, if the C's hadn't been challenged like that at every level along the way and improved their physical game, the finals could have been a different story. These teams respect each other's talent and boston knows what the hawks are capable of... they won't be caught off guard and they will not take them lightly