BETTORS COULDN'T BELIEVE THE MAVERICKS RALLIED TO WIN
Most of you watched the dramatic Dallas comeback in Game Two of the NBA Finals Thursday Night in the comfort of your own home. That meant...you know how you were reacting...you know how the Miami crowd was reacting on TV...and you saw the shots of Dallas fans reacting in their home arena as they were watching on the scoreboard.
None of that reflected the atmosphere that I experienced watching in a Nevada sportsbook.
With seven minutes to go, and Miami leading by 15 points, sportsbooks all over Las Vegas and Reno looked like this:
- Squares (our word for the general public) were as high as a kite. Squares love betting favorites. They liked what they saw from Miami in Game One. Now, a dominating performance was making them feel like kings of the world. It's amazing how cocky squares get when things are going well. You'd have think they'd have dunked a few themselves.
- Sharps (professional wagerers) were kind of split on this game. Some were taking Dallas in the traditional bounce back spot after a Game One loss. Others just don't trust LeBron, and bet on Dallas for that reason. But, a good number of personnel-analyst types had backed Miami because they seemed to be the clearly superior side and were playing on a strong home court. What's funny is that BOTH of these groups had decided the game was over. Dallas money had thrown in the towel (some guys left and didn't see the finish!). Miami guys were in a jovial mood.
There was NOBODY thinking Dallas was about to come back. It just didn't seem possible.
A few minutes later, it was very possible. Miami backers had turned as white as the shirts the arena fans were wearing. They couldn't believe they might blow their cover at -4.5. Losing the game didn't seem possible. But, not covering the spread was very much in play.
Then losing the game outright was very much in play!
And, in the final minute...many bettors turned into sports fans admiring an amazing finish. Dirk Nowitzki hits a three and the place goes nuts. What a comeback! Chalmers hits a three to tie it and suddenly EVERY Miami bettor is dreaming of overtime and a chance to cover in the extra period (which has already happened twice for heat backers). And, every Dallas backer is thinking all of this was just a set-up to get heartbroken in overtime.
Nowitzki hits the go-ahead bucket...and the game ends moments later. The series is even and heading back to Dallas. Everyone's spent. The buzz in the building lingered for quite some time. It picked up again the next morning as everyone was saying"Can you believe that game last night?"
Dallas is currently a 3-point favorite at home in Game Three. Miami is currently a -135 or -140 favorite to win the series even after suffering that heartbreaking collapse. You may think it's odd for Miami to be favored in the series when Dallas will be favored in the next three games. Should the current lines hold...
Game Three: Dallas by 3
Game Four: Dallas by 3
Game Five: Dallas by 3
Game Six: Miami by 4.5
Game Seven: Miami by 4.5
That's Dallas winning three times, and Miami two. Why is Miami the favorite?
Those lines probably won't hold. Should Dallas win Game Three, then the line would scoot very close to pick-em in Game Four, and possibly Game Five. Tough to win two or three coin flips in a row. If Miami wins Game Three, they'll have taken home court advantage back and justified the series price. Also, we might see the Miami lines go up at home if it gets there because home court has played such a big role in series finales.
I still have Miami one point better in my estimate of market ratings. It would have moved to two points better had the game ended after 42 minutes instead of 48 back on Thursday.
OUR NBA FINALS GAME #3 PREVIEW IS HERE
THE SERIES IS DEAD-EVEN AT A GAME APIECE BUT CAN THE HEAT NOW BOUNCE BACK FROM THAT HAUNTING GAME #2 LOSS?
By Jim Hurley:
Okay, so the scene and venue has shifted in NBA-land:
Games #3, #4 and #5 of this NBA Finals are being played this week in Dallas where the beloved Mavericks are 7-1 SU (straight-up) in this year's NBA Playoffs but Betcha bottom dollar that the Western Conference champions haven't faced the ire of a team quite like the one coming into town from South Florida:
The Miami Heat - from all published reports - are not shell-shocked or hurt because they were outscored 22-5 in the game's final seven-plus minutes this past Thursday night en route to a 95-93 loss. Instead, Miami's miffed - really, really angry - that it blew a 15-point lead in the final frame the other night and now LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh (a better-than-decent combined 25-of-51 shooting from the floor in Game #2) want another opportunity to step on the Mavs' throats when/if they have a late-game lead.
THE NBA FINALS - IT'S A GAME #3 PREVIEW
MIAMI at DALLAS -- Series tied 1-1
Now that we've all been chewing on and digesting the opinions from everyone including Magic Johnson to Charles Barkley to the man on the street the real key strategic question here is what does the Heat do when Dallas megastar Dirk Nowitzki (24 points on 22 FG tries in Game #2) gets his hands on the ball ... does Miami show an instant "double-team" or does Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra and Company allow the likes of Bosh and/or reserve forward Udonis Haslem to play him one-on-one?
No doubt that Nowitzki absolutely torched the Heat in the final 57.2 seconds of Game #2 when he registered a pair of driving, left-handed lay-ups that sandwiched his three-point bucket but at least Miami learned the hard way that Nowitzki's damaged digit on his non-shooting hand isn't all that troublesome to him after all. The gut feeling here is that Miami cannot afford to allow Bosh or Haslem - or anyone else for that matter - to stand out there on a proverbial island and try to handle the sport's best scorer in this year's post-season and the end result there just might well be more free-throw attempts for Nowitzki who canned all three of his charity stripe tosses in Game #2.
On the flip side, the Mavs made their bones on defense for much of the second half of the 2010-11 regular season and right into the playoffs but save for some brain cramps by the Heat (see those foolhardy 30 attempts from beyond the three-point arc) the fact of the matter is Miami shot it pretty well there in Game #2 while going a collective 25-of-43 from two-point range (that's 58.1 percent, folks) and so clearly the Heat must "push it" more (only 16 fast-break points in Game #2 while Dallas scored 13 fast-break points in that clash) and get those alley-oop plays working where James is either being the passer or the receiver for some mighty slam dunks.
Now, how about some under-the-radar strategy here for Game #3 tonight?
The Mavs must get their bench guys involved here to a high degree - note that in the Game #2 win the Dallas reserves including G Jason Terry sported a 23-to-11 scoring advantage but something tells us that both backup point guard J.J. Barea and three-point specialist Peja Stojakovic (see a combined 5 points in 19 minutes) must rev up their engines after respectively rotten showings in that last game. Heck, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle was so annoyed at Stojakovic's lazy defense that he benched him for perennial bench-warmer Brian Cardinal for a minute. Didn't you almost fall off your couch when that "sub" happened?
If you're searching for the bench keys here than Barea and Stojakovic must score 15 points between 'em - and maybe even more - and they must supply the Mavs some much-needed energy when Nowitzki's getting a blow. Stay tuned to see if Dallas can get a handle on Miami reserve G Mario Chalmers whose three-point corner jumper late in the fourth quarter in Game #2 was a beautiful/clutch shot. Hey, Chalmers can be an instant-offense guy for the Heat when either James or Wade is getting a few minutes of rest and so be advised of his importance in the scheme of things.
Now, note the first two games of this year's NBA Finals with home teams in CAPS:
DATEFAVSPREADDOGRESULT5-31MIAMI- 4.5DallasMIAMI 92-846-2MIAMI- 4.5Dallas Dallas 95-93
Finally, note that Dallas is an NBA-playoff best 14-3 ATS (against the spread) this year and that's an .823 winning rate while Miami isn't all that far behind at 11-6 versus the vig for a .647 winning percentage. Yes, it's still hard to believe that these teams are a combined 25-9 spreadwise in this post-season - awww, wish Shaq was here right now to say something witty!
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