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Miami will win Game 1 and the Series: Detailed Write Up
In 2006, Dallas had a two game lead over the heat until they lost the next four. Dirk played pretty well in that series but is much better now. It is clear this series will be very emotional for both Terry, Dirk, and Kidd. My prediction: Miami is 6.
The Heat will try and slow this game down and play in the half court, which may work against them at times. they feel they have some significant 1 on 1 advantages against the Mavs. Pushing the pace early on will help Miami establish rhythm and get the Mavs veterans off their game for a few minutes til they get warmed up. Miami obviously has the athletic ability but the Mavs are the more cerebral and efficient team. What they lose with talent they make up for with execution.
Dirk will be guarded by Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem. Haslem took this role in 06. I feel as though Lebron might demand to be put on him occasionally in the 4th quarter. Haslem and Anthony are good defenders, I don’t think either can hold down Dirk as it takes a longer player to guard him. Bosh’s defense is horrible but his length might bother Dirk when they switch a couple times a game. Bosh can guard Chandler but maybe he will guard Dirk because Chandler is much stronger, but I still see Anthony starting on Dirk. the Heat will allow Dirk to go 1 on 1 in the 4th quarter and this will be key for the series. They are gonna get the ball out of his hands in the 4th quarter and make someone else beat them. Dirk should have a great series and I expect him to average 24+ a game, and close to 10 rebounds.
Anthony is a non-factor on the offensive end so I don’t think he’ll play that many minutes if he’s not shutting dirk down. Haslem can hit the midrange jumpshot which was critical to the Heat’s success in 2006. Wade and Haslem know how to play against each other against the Mavs and he will be a big factor in this series on both ends of the floor.
I think Tyson Chandler will guard Bosh. Bosh is quicker and more agile than Chandler, but CHalnder is a great defender and I really am not expecting a good series from Bosh. I’m hoping he doesn’t fold until the pressure and can knock down some wide open jumpers. he’ll be fine as long as they don’t try to let him play 1 on 1 against chandler. Wade and James are both very aggressive. The thread I made about Heat will get more calls is obvious. Anyone that knows the NBA recognizes this. Tyson Chandler will be in foul trouble for a few games for the Mavs and its gonna cost them because Haywood is much worse and slow footed. Chandler will play good defensively this series and should get some easy put back dunks. The Heat may counter with bringing Big Z and Dampier (former Dallas Mav that lost in the finals in 06). I would like to see Dampier play andhe just might.
Wade will be guarded by Stevenson, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry. They are going to try a plethora of guys to guard Wade. He has some significant advantages over all these guys. Stevenson is the best of the defenders but he is really aggressive and he won’t get away with defending Dwayne like that because he’s not guarding a jump shooter. Kidd is crafty with the steal and Wade is prone to turnovers so I think that could be a factor but if Kidd doesn’t get those steals he has no chance to stay in front of Dwayne Wade and the same goes for Jason Terry. Wade has some moves in the 06 film that were driving to the rim at will. He has similar matchups now so I’m predicting a huge series from Wade and possibly the MVP.
Jason Kidd will play well but Bibby has a good matchup here. I think Bibby had a good challenge guarding Rose in the last series and he must be happy to see J Kidd. Kidd will get his offensively but I don’t see him being much of a factor on the defensive end. Bibby will knock down some key shots in this series and I think he will actually play well considering the matchup. Having to guard Rose took out Bibbys legs but now it’s a different story.
Lebron will be matchuped with Sean Marion and Brewer (most likely) this series. This is where the Mavs are missing Caron Butler. Marion is good on the defensive end but I expect a big series from Lebron. He knows he can get by Marion at will in this series and it will really be up to the Mavs to pick their poison with Lebron and Wade. We saw the 2nd best defensive team in the league hold Wade to under 20 a game average for the series. The Heat didn’t play well offensively and still escaped in 5, just like I predicted. This guy has proven this year he is the best closer in the playoffs along with Dirk. I have called him out in the past for missing big shots but I am not afraid to recognize greatness. Defensively, Lebron will take anyone he guards out of the game completely when he’s motivated, in this case Sean Marion. Marion will be a non-factor in this series. Brewer? He can’t check Lebron. Go ahead and try it Rick. Their best bet is jus doubling Lebron if he gets it in the post which the Heat will look to do. He’s now using the Kobe move where he gets the ball in the post on the elbow so that he is 1 step away from the rim or has a free throw line fadaway jumper.
Jason Terry will have some good games in this series and he will have some horrible games. Wade is motivated to win a championship relying on defense and he will take the challenge of Terry and shut him down for a few games. I feel as though when both are in the game Wade will guard him and try to smother him on the perimeter and make him drive. Overall I see Terry having a below average series, but some big games to help the Mavs win a couple.
Chalmers should be able to well play in this series and guard JJ B. who has done great in these playoffs. He is a key guy off the bench for J Kidd to get rest but Chalmers is one of the best on the defense end at moving his feet against quick opponents. I don’t think Barea will be CONSISTANT in this series, which is what is important. The rest of the bench—Stojakavic should be a factor at times in this series. He is a good bench player and I think he will get some open looks off the Dirk double teams. the Heat will counter with Mike Miller. James Jones is a good option but it really depends on the scenario. Miller is solid at the defensive end, I think he will guard Peja, Terry/Stevenson/Brewer. Whoever the Carlile decides to go with. Miller’s thumbs are messed up but he has some rest now so we’ll see how he responds. The thing is while the Mavs bench is really good, if you take Terry and Barea out of the game the Mavs pretty much have no shot to win that game. Terry is not consistent. JJ does not have a good matchup at all with Chalmers.
The Heat have the Mavs number I feel is because of their perimeter defenders. Wade and James will win this series with their defense. They will smother the Mavs perimeter defenders, and let Dirk go 1 on 1 for most of the game, until the 4th quarter where he gives it up and the Heat will force someone else to beat them. If they double Dirk, I feel as though their athleticism helps them recover fast enough to contest the Mavs 3 point shots. The Mavs should really try and dominate the half court game because I don’t see them getting too many fast break opportunities in this series.
There will be limited turnovers from both teams in this series, which means less overall fast breaks than expected. Both teams will take care of the ball. The Mavs bench is obviously better because of Terry, but to be honest Udonis Haslem is very valuable in this series. Miami has big guys that have been resting for 2 months AND practicing. They are ready to go. Dampier, Big Z, Maglore. Whoever comes off the bench to handle Brendon Haywood. Dallas has the more complete team, they are the better offensive team, but ultimately, their lack of toughness will be their downfall. While the Mavs have played in the west, they played all weak defensive teams (even the Lakers of this year which was a weird fluke). The fast pace they’ve grown accustomed to coming out of the OKC series is beneficial in this series, but Miami closes out well in transition defense. The Mavs transition defense on the other hand is HORRIBLE. The Thunder exposed the Mavs in this manner. This might not be a big factor but it will add up. The Mavs need to execute in the halfcourt and not be afraid to attack. They are primarily a jump shooting team and that’s not going to work against Miami. The Mavs have guys that can create off the dribble so they need to win the paint and rebounding battle because the Heat are coming into this series determined to shut down the Mavs perimeter shooters.
In the end, I expect Miami to take the 1st game out of pure adrenaline. Dallas looked rusty in the first game of a layoff from the Lakers game, OKC just didn’t execute in the second half and Dallas found their rhythm. Miami will come out hot and punch it down Dallas’ throat early. They will catch up eventually but it’ll be a nice lead going into the 4th for Miami and Dallas just struggles to produce offensie in the 4th quarter when they see the Heat’s defensive schemes in the 4th quarter. I expect a turnover (not sure if they win) in game 2 because Dallas Is the more cerebral team and Rick will make the necessary adjustments. I expect a great series and very close games, right down to the Wire. I would not even be surprised to see Wade/Dirk/Terry/Lebron hit a game winner in this series. In the end, the Heat’s ability to drive the ball and create contact will put them at the line, even if it’s a big game, the refs are not scared to call a foul for 2 hall of famers.
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Originally Posted by Jimb0311
.....shooting percentage will be important...do not see these teams getting many second chance points
