[Love The Action]

I am really pleased we get to see this Bulls/Heat series as it should bode for a classic Rivalry for the next few years and help re-spark interest in the NBA after the almost-certain labor stoppage next season. In the last couple of days, I have seen a lot of hyperbolic posts for both sides when it comes to this series.

However, the smart investor knows the value lies in the Bulls at +160 and this play comes down solely to value. Let's face it, this series is a 50/50 proposition because both teams could win. Consequently, there is no value in taking the Heat at -190. However, there is value in the Bulls at +160 because of the home court advantage. Here are the other reasons I like the Bulls for 3.5x in this series (I have total of 5x for Bulls to win this series when factoring in a futures bet at +150 for Bulls to win the East):

1. Depth: While the Heat have two of the top three players on these two teams, the Bulls go ten deep which will allow for different matchups, spot plays and defensive adjustments that Thibodeau can use to his advantage. For example, when it was clear earlier on in the Atlanta series that Korver and Boozer were not able to match with some of the Hawks athleticism, he went with Asik and Brewer for the entire fourth quarter as a responsive adjustment that shut the Hawks down. The Heat don't have that flexibility. With Boozer healthy as evidenced by his recent performances, and Noah, Deng, Korver, Bogans, Gibson, Brewer, Asik and Watson, I think the Bulls have the flexibility to respond to in-game situations. James, Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Anthony, an old Z, Dampier, Miller and Bibby, just can't compare to the established rotation of the Bulls. What do the Heat do if Lebron and Wade both get in foul trouble early? I don't think they have a plan for such a situaiton and the Bulls will be aggressive in their offensive attack. Now, I'm not saying this isn't a close matchup. Lebron and Wade will most certainly get theirs. But for the full 48 minutes, I think the Bulls have the better rotation possibilities. This type of flexibility lends itself to the close games that we most certainly will see and the Bulls will take full advantage.
2. Defense: I give the edge just slightly to the Bulls on defense. These are two solid defensive teams. They both force turnovers in order to score in transition. On one hand, the Bulls have been exposed in these last two rounds by giving up too many unforced turnovers. If they continue this trend, they may not be able to survive. However, I think they shore up any sloppiness. Because of the athleticism, quickness, toughness and size down low, the Bulls present matchup problems for the Heat. We all expect the Bulls to cut off the Heat's access/points in the paint and force outside shots like the Celts did. However, with Deng's proven ability to defend Lebron with help and the Bulls perimeter defensive schemes, I think the Bulls will be more successful with this strategy. Miami will attempt to shut down Rose and assume no one else will hit their shots. That is what the Hawks did with some success. However, I think the Hawks posed more problems for the Bulls bench and role players than the Heat's bench. The Bulls bench will consistently outscore the Heat bench and will clamp down on the Heat's reserves when on defense. All things considered, I think the Bulls have a slight edge on defense. They will take the easy shots away from Lebron and Wade, force them to take low percentage shots and clamp down on everyone else. Thibs will have multiple schemes and this again gives us another reason to lean to the Bulls when considering overall defense.
3. Coaching: I don't think I need to go too in-depth with analysis here, do I? Thibs runs his ship with discipline and consistency. Spo, well, he tries. At the end of the day, Spo is more of a caretaker than a coach. He does not compare to the coach of the year in a lot of respects. I'm not saying Spo is horrible, but Thibs clearly has the edge in x's and o's, game-planning, in-game adjustments and game-to-game adjustments. I give the edge to the Bulls with coaching.
4. Rose: Rose presents problems for anyone, but especially for the Heat. They don't have one guy that can guard Rose. Everyone says, Chalmers and Lebron, but Rose's quickness will eat them up. I think the Bulls have a better chance of stopping Lebron than the Heat do to Rose. The problem is that the Heat can turn to Wade. This is why the Bulls depth and defense will be important to at least chip away at the superstars. Nevertheless, regardless of the Heat's superstars, the penetration created by Rose will lead to easy baskets for his teammates. If you remember, all year the formula to beat the Heat revolved around great point guards, whether it was Deron Williams with the Jazz or Rondo. However, Rose is superior to anything the Heat have faced so far. I also think Rose has the better intangibles in this matchup. He has that killer instinct and will to win that is becoming stuff of legend already. Rose has that photographic memory to respond successfully to tough situation. If he plays badly, he makes a note to correct and avenge that bad play the next time on the court. Rose helps the Bulls bounceback from losses better than any other team. If you check through regular season and post season game situations, you will see that the Bulls rarely lose two games in a row. Rose's determination will help the Bulls overcome the Heat in 7.
5. Home Court: Home court can't be underestimated and lends itself to momentum. The Bulls have one of the biggest home court advantages in the league. This is also why the Bulls price of +160 is such good value. Because this is such an even matchup, the home court advantage could potentially be big. If the Heat steal one of the first two, then I would feel a bit less confident. If the Bulls win the first two games, I would expect the Bulls to end up winning the series.
6. Heat's emotional letdown: The Heat's celebration after beating the Celts was telling. It showed they put a great deal of importance into that series and may be ripe for a letdown here. It seemed to me they thought they won something already. Whereas the Bulls were all business after clinching their series against the Hawks. The heat showed their mentality was not set on the big picture. To a man, all the Bulls said after the game was that they still have work to do. After the Heat's win, they talked of relief, getting the monkey off their back and all that nonsense. If the Heat were really that relieved to get to this point, they do not have the right mentality. This goes back to coaching and the Bulls advantage in that area. I think the Heat are set up perfectly for an emotional letdown in this spot.
7. Value: At the end of the day, the Heat's superstar effect is huge. Rose will need a big series and the Bulls will need to play great team basketball with ball movement and defense. I think they will do that. However, I don't think this series is a slam-dunk for either team (as some Heat backers would lead you to believe). This series matchup is really closer to a 50/50 proposition than anything else. Therefore, the odds should be equal. However, the Bulls getting +160 while having home court puts the value solely on the Bulls play. There is no value on the Heat at -190.
8. Hedge: By making a play on the Bulls, you leave yourself with multiple hedge opportunities down the road. This would not be the case with a play on the Heat. The plus odds on the Bulls will give you the freedom to hedge out at small price on later matchups once you know how the series is playing out. I think this bit of flexibility is huge in such a close matchup.

For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the Bulls in this series against the Heat at +160. If anyone can articulate for me why they would take the Heat at -190 I would love to hear. I'm not against backing the Heat, but that should done on a game-by-game basis and not as a series play. If you want to make a series play, the value says the play is on the Bulls or no play at all. Good luck.

[chantrain]

Nice write up, I like that you actually have a write up unlike some of the other idiots on this forum.

[Affirmed3]

Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts. This will be a great series.

[Borat38]

I'd like to see CHI trump MIA as much as the next guy, but I wonder what the real score is about DRose's ankle injury.

[thebestthereis]

i don't like the heat, unfortunately this is not a 50/50 scenario. the heat have much more talent than the bulls and two of the three or four premier players in the nba. this is fact. if you believe talent wins in a 7 game series, and it almost always does in the nba, the heat will easily beat the bulls in 6 games or less. if you think rose can actually carry the bulls, which point guards rarely do in the nba at this time of the year unless you are magic, then the bulls might have value. rose needs his team to play out of their ass or they are done, sorry that is the situation.

[Love The Action]

i don't like the heat, unfortunately this is not a 50/50 scenario. the heat have much more talent than the bulls and two of the three or four premier players in the nba. this is fact. if you believe talent wins in a 7 game series, and it almost always does in the nba, the heat will easily beat the bulls in 6 games or less. if you think rose can actually carry the bulls, which point guards rarely do in the nba at this time of the year unless you are magic, then the bulls might have value. rose needs his team to play out of their ass or they are done, sorry that is the situation.

I can understand and respect your opinion, but I think you underestimate the Bulls. Regardless, however, by making a series play on the Bulls, you basically guaranty yourself profit in this series with hedging opportunities on the Heat on a game by game basis. If you make a series play on the Heat, you don't have those easy hedging opportunities because of the heavy price you paid. Remember, my post is about value, profit and making a series play. As far as making a series play, you should take the Bulls or just lay off betting the series. With that said, I do think the Bulls win here. However, if they don't, I will still have profited because I will hedge out on the Heat at some point at a small individual game price.

Rose will need help from his teammates, but I do believe Rose possesses a special quality only seen in the rarest of winning basketball players. Whether you call it a killer instinct or ultra-competetiveness or whatever, Rose possesses a special quality you don't see in most superstar NBA players. He has that ability to make his team better than they are and to bring them back from the depths of a loss. Remember game one against the Pacers? The Bulls were down double digits with three minutes left, but won because of a 16-0 run to close-out the game. That run was directly attributable to Rose and his ability to will his team to victory. It is that quality that sets him apart and led to his status as the youngest MVP.

Please also remember, when Lebron was negotiating with the Bulls during free agency, Rose was not exactly pleased. This was right around the time he was asking "why not me for the MVP?" You see, Rose wants to put this team on his back and wants that sole responsibility for winning and losing. This is so important and highlights the difference between he and Lebron. I believe Rose is the better competitor. Lebron is a once in a lifetime physical talent, but he wants to be "one of the guys" and have other options at the end of the game if he's not feeling the pressure of the last shot. Rose, on the other hand, relishes those clutch moments. You asked if I think Rose can carry the Bulls in this series and the answer would be yes. But that is only because I know that Rose feels the exact same way.

[Sportsbetting123]

This line is much higher than I thought it would be. Bulls in 7!

[FishFace5]

Nice write-up LTA.

[thebertshow]

I like the Bulls series play

[hoyas2007]

LTA - I understand that if Chicago wins game 1 or games 1 and 2, then the Heat will be plus money on the series so you could bet them to win the series at that point and then have guaranteed profit no matter what happens. But if the Heat come out and win game 1, then how are you going to hedge out of this bet? You could take the Heat later on in the series (let's say they're up 3-2, you could take them in game 6 in Miami), but you'd be laying around -200 to -220, and there would be no guarantee that they would win that game. This happened to me with the Celtics series - I had the Celtics +155 for the series and I wanted to hedge out of it later on, but I didn't want to lay a big bet on the Miami ML in game 5 at -260 or whatever it was since the Celtics could have won that game (they almost did) and then the Heat close it out in 6. How are you planning to hedge out of this bet if Miami wins game 1?

To me the value lies in the fact that you can get the Bulls at +160 for the series and yet they are favored in game 1. So they need to go out and win game 1 - then the Heat will go from -190 to a much more manageable number. If you want to hedge out at that point, you could. If the Bulls lose game 1 though, then I don't see a good hedging scenario...

Thanks as always for the writeups

[aussieH]

Only good hedging scenario depends on bulls winning game 1 I think as well

Very good write up I think and does seem a logical play

Another point is the heats struggles against good teams in the regular season

[shermanator]

Bulls will win in 5 or 6 games.

[Love The Action]

LTA - I understand that if Chicago wins game 1 or games 1 and 2, then the Heat will be plus money on the series so you could bet them to win the series at that point and then have guaranteed profit no matter what happens. But if the Heat come out and win game 1, then how are you going to hedge out of this bet? You could take the Heat later on in the series (let's say they're up 3-2, you could take them in game 6 in Miami), but you'd be laying around -200 to -220, and there would be no guarantee that they would win that game. This happened to me with the Celtics series - I had the Celtics +155 for the series and I wanted to hedge out of it later on, but I didn't want to lay a big bet on the Miami ML in game 5 at -260 or whatever it was since the Celtics could have won that game (they almost did) and then the Heat close it out in 6. How are you planning to hedge out of this bet if Miami wins game 1?

To me the value lies in the fact that you can get the Bulls at +160 for the series and yet they are favored in game 1. So they need to go out and win game 1 - then the Heat will go from -190 to a much more manageable number. If you want to hedge out at that point, you could. If the Bulls lose game 1 though, then I don't see a good hedging scenario...

Thanks as always for the writeups

Probably a poor choice in words to say guaranteed profit, but I think the results of these games will be extremely close. Consequently, I do not forsee the huge price on the favorites that you saw in the Heat/Celts series. Therefore, my point on hedging assumes a consistent and lower price on the faves. Taking into account the scenarios you mentioned respecting games one and two, and my assumed lower price on the favorites, I think the hedging opportunities far outweigh any possible option presented by taking the Heat -190. Good luck Hoyas. I always appreciate your contributions here.

[3PtShooter]

now those are write ups

[thebestthereis]

yes i agree on the hedging opportunities, making money is all that matters my point is that in the history of the nba the team with the most talent (best players) wins the series. it isn't my opinion, it is fact. chicago could win, yes. unless the team steps up bigtime they are not winning this series, stand around wait for rose isn't going to work. if lebron and wade play they way they are capable of the heat win. if i run the mile in 4 minutes i cannot beat the person who holds the record, no matter i do. this is the same. the better team wins 95% of the time.

[TheChancellor]

This is going to sound juvenile, but I always say to people... The Heat have two players than can drop 50 on you at any given time, and I mean that literally. Now, when I say that, I realize that there are many players in the NBA capable of scoring 50. The thing is, coaches don't run their offense in such a way that gives franchise players that opportunity. The Heat offense runs entirely through two of the best players in the NBA. Neither of them can be stopped.

And don't forget Bosh. Boozer is one of the worst defensive big men in the league. Undersized, and slow footed. He'll be a liability. If Noah checks Bosh, then Boozer will either be out-hustled by Joel Anthony, or have to defend a 7'3" mid range shooter in Ilgauskas. Two horrible scenarios if you ask me. Can't wait for the game.

[Love The Action]

I'm still waiting to hear from those Heat backers as to why -190 is the play. Remember, at issue is value. Heat backers?

[Love The Action]

I am really pleased we get to see this Bulls/Heat series as it should bode for a classic Rivalry for the next few years and help re-spark interest in the NBA after the almost-certain labor stoppage next season. In the last couple of days, I have seen a lot of hyperbolic posts for both sides when it comes to this series.

However, the smart investor knows the value lies in the Bulls at +160 and this play comes down solely to value. Let's face it, this series is a 50/50 proposition because both teams could win. Consequently, there is no value in taking the Heat at -190. However, there is value in the Bulls at +160 because of the home court advantage. Here are the other reasons I like the Bulls for 3.5x in this series (I have total of 5x for Bulls to win this series when factoring in a futures bet at +150 for Bulls to win the East):

1. Depth: While the Heat have two of the top three players on these two teams, the Bulls go ten deep which will allow for different matchups, spot plays and defensive adjustments that Thibodeau can use to his advantage. For example, when it was clear earlier on in the Atlanta series that Korver and Boozer were not able to match with some of the Hawks athleticism, he went with Asik and Brewer for the entire fourth quarter as a responsive adjustment that shut the Hawks down. The Heat don't have that flexibility. With Boozer healthy as evidenced by his recent performances, and Noah, Deng, Korver, Bogans, Gibson, Brewer, Asik and Watson, I think the Bulls have the flexibility to respond to in-game situations. James, Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Anthony, an old Z, Dampier, Miller and Bibby, just can't compare to the established rotation of the Bulls. What do the Heat do if Lebron and Wade both get in foul trouble early? I don't think they have a plan for such a situaiton and the Bulls will be aggressive in their offensive attack. Now, I'm not saying this isn't a close matchup. Lebron and Wade will most certainly get theirs. But for the full 48 minutes, I think the Bulls have the better rotation possibilities. This type of flexibility lends itself to the close games that we most certainly will see and the Bulls will take full advantage.
2. Defense: I give the edge just slightly to the Bulls on defense. These are two solid defensive teams. They both force turnovers in order to score in transition. On one hand, the Bulls have been exposed in these last two rounds by giving up too many unforced turnovers. If they continue this trend, they may not be able to survive. However, I think they shore up any sloppiness. Because of the athleticism, quickness, toughness and size down low, the Bulls present matchup problems for the Heat. We all expect the Bulls to cut off the Heat's access/points in the paint and force outside shots like the Celts did. However, with Deng's proven ability to defend Lebron with help and the Bulls perimeter defensive schemes, I think the Bulls will be more successful with this strategy. Miami will attempt to shut down Rose and assume no one else will hit their shots. That is what the Hawks did with some success. However, I think the Hawks posed more problems for the Bulls bench and role players than the Heat's bench. The Bulls bench will consistently outscore the Heat bench and will clamp down on the Heat's reserves when on defense. All things considered, I think the Bulls have a slight edge on defense. They will take the easy shots away from Lebron and Wade, force them to take low percentage shots and clamp down on everyone else. Thibs will have multiple schemes and this again gives us another reason to lean to the Bulls when considering overall defense.
3. Coaching: I don't think I need to go too in-depth with analysis here, do I? Thibs runs his ship with discipline and consistency. Spo, well, he tries. At the end of the day, Spo is more of a caretaker than a coach. He does not compare to the coach of the year in a lot of respects. I'm not saying Spo is horrible, but Thibs clearly has the edge in x's and o's, game-planning, in-game adjustments and game-to-game adjustments. I give the edge to the Bulls with coaching.
4. Rose: Rose presents problems for anyone, but especially for the Heat. They don't have one guy that can guard Rose. Everyone says, Chalmers and Lebron, but Rose's quickness will eat them up. I think the Bulls have a better chance of stopping Lebron than the Heat do to Rose. The problem is that the Heat can turn to Wade. This is why the Bulls depth and defense will be important to at least chip away at the superstars. Nevertheless, regardless of the Heat's superstars, the penetration created by Rose will lead to easy baskets for his teammates. If you remember, all year the formula to beat the Heat revolved around great point guards, whether it was Deron Williams with the Jazz or Rondo. However, Rose is superior to anything the Heat have faced so far. I also think Rose has the better intangibles in this matchup. He has that killer instinct and will to win that is becoming stuff of legend already. Rose has that photographic memory to respond successfully to tough situation. If he plays badly, he makes a note to correct and avenge that bad play the next time on the court. Rose helps the Bulls bounceback from losses better than any other team. If you check through regular season and post season game situations, you will see that the Bulls rarely lose two games in a row. Rose's determination will help the Bulls overcome the Heat in 7.
5. Home Court: Home court can't be underestimated and lends itself to momentum. The Bulls have one of the biggest home court advantages in the league. This is also why the Bulls price of +160 is such good value. Because this is such an even matchup, the home court advantage could potentially be big. If the Heat steal one of the first two, then I would feel a bit less confident. If the Bulls win the first two games, I would expect the Bulls to end up winning the series.
6. Heat's emotional letdown: The Heat's celebration after beating the Celts was telling. It showed they put a great deal of importance into that series and may be ripe for a letdown here. It seemed to me they thought they won something already. Whereas the Bulls were all business after clinching their series against the Hawks. The heat showed their mentality was not set on the big picture. To a man, all the Bulls said after the game was that they still have work to do. After the Heat's win, they talked of relief, getting the monkey off their back and all that nonsense. If the Heat were really that relieved to get to this point, they do not have the right mentality. This goes back to coaching and the Bulls advantage in that area. I think the Heat are set up perfectly for an emotional letdown in this spot.
7. Value: At the end of the day, the Heat's superstar effect is huge. Rose will need a big series and the Bulls will need to play great team basketball with ball movement and defense. I think they will do that. However, I don't think this series is a slam-dunk for either team (as some Heat backers would lead you to believe). This series matchup is really closer to a 50/50 proposition than anything else. Therefore, the odds should be equal. However, the Bulls getting +160 while having home court puts the value solely on the Bulls play. There is no value on the Heat at -190.
8. Hedge: By making a play on the Bulls, you leave yourself with multiple hedge opportunities down the road. This would not be the case with a play on the Heat. The plus odds on the Bulls will give you the freedom to hedge out at small price on later matchups once you know how the series is playing out. I think this bit of flexibility is huge in such a close matchup.

For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the Bulls in this series against the Heat at +160. If anyone can articulate for me why they would take the Heat at -190 I would love to hear. I'm not against backing the Heat, but that should done on a game-by-game basis and not as a series play. If you want to make a series play, the value says the play is on the Bulls or no play at all. Good luck.

Every single one of these points came to fruition in the Bulls big win. We are really getting some awesome value now that the Bulls won game one.

We are not getting overconfident, however, as we know there is still a lot of basketball to play. However, the Bulls out-rebounded the Heat by 13 points and killed them on second chance points by 20 points. This goes directly to the front court depth of the Bulls. Taj, Asik, Boozer and Noah dominated tonight.

We could not have asked for a better game one. Onto game 2...

[chantrain]

you sharp as ****, you're like the anti-Goat Milk

[Love The Action]

you sharp as ****, you're like the anti-Goat Milk

Let's get this game 2! And what will be a big play on the under!

[vinh diesel]

whew, thank gosh I hammered the +170 CHI series play for 10x. Let's get game 2!!

I wonder how the books will adjust the line base off of game 1.

I can't believe that the series price opened somewhere at +180, this series is a tossup/coinflip, the extra equity is definitely the value play.

[Love The Action]

whew, thank gosh I hammered the +170 CHI series play for 10x. Let's get game 2!!

I wonder how the books will adjust the line base off of game 1.

I am interested in seeing the revised odds as well. I think we'll see Heat -120 or so.

Wow, 10x...good luck! You gotta be feeling good right now...

[vinh diesel]

I am interested in seeing the revised odds as well. I think we'll see Heat -120 or so.

Wow, 10x...good luck! You gotta be feeling good right now...

Yes I do feel good, it's the largest bet I've made since the football season. Tailing you and SJ definitely helped my bankroll

I feel good because of the way Miami lost, they looked like an hallow team that rely a lot on isolation plays. Miami is good at defending the 3 ball and seeing that the bulls are exploiting them inside the paint gives me extra confidence. BOL

[Love The Action]

Wow...Bulls are now -135 to win this series. I think everyone would agree that we made the right call to jump on + 160. Great value, just like we said. Bol....

[DANO74]

Bulls signing their new coach this summer was easily their best move!

[natethagreat]

nice write up, series is gonna be a must see. As far as betting. I'm looking at the thunder and Mavs instead.

[Scorpion]

Depth: While the Heat have two of the top three players on these two teams, .

Do you really think Bosh is that good genius? Do you really think he is better than Rose?



Bosh is a B- C+ player

[NBA_Brosuf]

So if you buy chicago for series at +160 and lets say heat odds for series will be +160, if you buy the same units for heat at +160, is that a hedging for an automatic gain?

Automatic +60 win right?

[Inkwell77]

Is Miami now +120 or something? Does anyone know?

[Love The Action]

Do you really think Bosh is that good genius? Do you really think he is better than Rose?



Bosh is a B- C+ player

Are you talking to me?

If so, I would question your reading ability. I wrote that the heat have two of the three best players on the two teams.

For those that can't read, that means that out of the three best players on both teams, the heat have two of those "best" players and the bulls have one. Anyone with half a brain would have known that I was talking about Lebron, Wade and Rose. I really hope you weren't referencing that comment to me, especially since the writeup was in favor of the bulls and nowhere does it mention bosh's prowess. Please learn to read. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

So if you buy chicago for series at +160 and lets say heat odds for series will be +160, if you buy the same units for heat at +160, is that a hedging for an automatic gain?

Automatic +60 win right?

Correct.