1Q - o45.5
The 1Q in this series has been surprisingly a high scoring affair, in comparison to the series overall as I've computed an average of 50 taking into account games in ATL, the series, and situational. This could go under but I see good value in this as the this correlates the the 1H play.
Scoring drops off a bit in the 2Q as the numbers regress to around 43.
1H - o90.5
Using the logic above I'm calculating an average 1H total of 93 which correlates to my computed average of 93. Although this isn't much over the line of 90.5, I think I like the fact a little more that they average 96 in the 1H in Atlanta vs. the 89 in Chicago. I almost had to take these two based on the fact that they are highly correlated and if I can get the 1Q hit then the half should follow.
FG - o178.5 (but it will be close and probably come down to final 2 minutes)
This one is a little trickier because this line is extremely tight and all the number support it. From a situational standpoint the number favor the over but with an average of 187.5. (This would be eastern conference close out game with the team 3 up on the road) When looking at this you have to look at the fact the the EConf is generally a lower scoring conference so it helps to break situations down it to detail, but not too much.
This isn't the only number I have to base this on as they are actually averaging 184.5 in ATL in the series and just over 180 for the series. This line is very tight, but I think if you're going to play this one you take the over and try and get it under 179. I have other numbers from my model (that has it as a no-play) that I won't bore you with, but I see this going over but not over 185 so the margin is fairly small. We could very easily see a 175 type game because some of these haven't been decided until the games final minutes so it's been a toss-up really. I will feel a lot better about this if the first two hit because this will indicate the pace is right where I want it. Basically, it comes down to the details and these seem to indicate the over. I can throw out all the numbers I want but in the end it will come down to what the players do on the floor. The them (sans GM1) has been over in ATL and Under in CHI so I'm going to stick with that.
I don't plan on playing the 2H but if there is deviation then I may to recoup some losses...we'll see. I'm not as confident in this play as the others but I think it's the one with the better chance of hitting.
As always just my opinion here not FACT so each to their own.