[AikenJ]

If the spreads change, then why do the ATS records even matter? Doesn't vegas try to keep ATS records even? Wouldn't a bigger winning record kind of set a team up for a loss ATS?

[suicidekings]

Because of the scale of the scoring in the NBA, SU records are a poor way of describing the true differential between two teams. The point spread is determined from statistics for the two teams and is a far more accurate metric in comparing two teams' chances to win. If the spread is Team A -5 @ Team B +5 then the books are saying that the road team winning by 5 points is a 50/50 proposition (minus the vig). So if at one point during the season, if the two teams are both 25-15 SU, but Team A is 28-12 ATS and Team B is 20-20 ATS, which one do you think has performed better overall?

To ignore ATS records implies that you think a 15 point win or a 2 point win are equally meaningful. Obviously not true.

[politicin]

[politicin]

ATS records indicate it all and are extremely meaningful in regards to a teams performance based on a bookies perception of their ability to perform/potential. As the greatest poster on this forum just told you. SK is the most knowledgeable on this forum and a good guy to learn from Aiken.

[AikenJ]

Because of the scale of the scoring in the NBA, SU records are a poor way of describing the true differential between two teams. The point spread is determined from statistics for the two teams and is a far more accurate metric in comparing two teams' chances to win. If the spread is Team A -5 @ Team B +5 then the books are saying that the road team winning by 5 points is a 50/50 proposition (minus the vig). So if at one point during the season, if the two teams are both 25-15 SU, but Team A is 28-12 ATS and Team B is 20-20 ATS, which one do you think has performed better overall?

To ignore ATS records implies that you think a 15 point win or a 2 point win are equally meaningful. Obviously not true.

No no, I understand why they use them in betting, but for example, if Team A has been 3-0 ATS, how does that apply to their next game? As in, how does it matter?

[politicin]

It shows they're out performing the bookies expectations.

[AikenJ]

It shows they're out performing the bookies expectations.

But doesn't that mean that bookies will increase the spread accordingly to even it out again?

[politicin]

So now you know this due to the ATS record? Get it yet?

[AikenJ]

So now you know this due to the ATS record? Get it yet?

Now I get it :P my bad.

[suicidekings]

Because ATS is more descriptive of the power differential between two teams than the SU record. For any given game it's an attempt to describe the team's chances at that moment, with specific starting players, on variable amounts of rest, at home or on the road. The two teams could play again a week later at a different venue with a star player out on one team and playing their 4th game in 5 days. The probability of winning the game straight up would not be the same, but the point spread takes all of those factors into account and presents their chances as a single number.

So if a team is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, then moving forward the books might give that team a little more respect in future games. Power rankings are dynamic so with every game played each team's chances of winning future matchups is adjusted. The point spread for a particular game is a snapshot of that team's progress at a given point.

[politicin]

"The most valuable commodity I know of is information"

[suicidekings]

"The most valuable commodity I know of is information that the other guy doesn't have"

[politicin]

Edge reigns supreme.

[suicidekings]

Edge reigns supreme.

I like this. It distills everything you need to know about advantage gambling down to one line.

[apalm8]

Thanks I've wondered about this too.

[AikenJ]

Thanks I've wondered about this too.

At least now I don't feel like such a moron.

[demens]

Because of the scale of the scoring in the NBA, SU records are a poor way of describing the true differential between two teams. The point spread is determined from statistics for the two teams and is a far more accurate metric in comparing two teams' chances to win. If the spread is Team A -5 @ Team B +5 then the books are saying that the road team winning by 5 points is a 50/50 proposition (minus the vig). So if at one point during the season, if the two teams are both 25-15 SU, but Team A is 28-12 ATS and Team B is 20-20 ATS, which one do you think has performed better overall?

To ignore ATS records implies that you think a 15 point win or a 2 point win are equally meaningful. Obviously not true.

I either misunderstood what the OP is asking, or dont understand your point.

What i think he was saying is that since the spreads change all the time and are different for each team, then overall ATS record is not very meaningful.

2 teams with a 25-15SU record, A = 28-12 ATS and B = 20-20 ATS doesn't mean anything to me when team A is some Sixers/Knicks type 500 team facing 2 or 3 point spreads each game and team B is Heat/Lakers that have to win most games by 10 to cover.

[politicin]

It's telling you the team is 28-12 and you should probably bet it opposed to the Heat/Lakers team? Considering they're going to be getting more points against a team who only covers at a 50 percent rate and is faced with large spreads? How is that not irrefutably valuable information? Not getting your point Demens.

[thebestthereis]

it's how you get to the winning ticket window

[suicidekings]

I either misunderstood what the OP is asking, or dont understand your point.

What i think he was saying is that since the spreads change all the time and are different for each team, then overall ATS record is not very meaningful.

2 teams with a 25-15SU record, A = 28-12 ATS and B = 20-20 ATS doesn't mean anything to me when team A is some Sixers/Knicks type 500 team facing 2 or 3 point spreads each game and team B is Heat/Lakers that have to win most games by 10 to cover.

Yeah, and how often are the huge faves the best ATS choice to bet? This season, the top 5 ATS teams were the Grizzlies, Bulls, Sixers, Knicks, and Nuggets. Two of these teams were barely .500 teams but they were profitable and all outperformed their preseason predictions (except the Knicks ) SU records tell you who the better team is, but ATS records tell you who the better bet is. These statements are not equivalent.

[politicin]

Game. Set. Match. /thread.

[AikenJ]

SU records tell you who the better team is, but ATS records tell you who the better bet is. These statements are not equivalent.

There we go

[demens]

Yeah, and how often are the huge faves the best ATS choice to bet? This season, the top 5 ATS teams were the Grizzlies, Bulls, Sixers, Knicks, and Nuggets. Two of these teams were barely .500 teams but they were profitable and all outperformed their preseason predictions (except the Knicks ) SU records tell you who the better team is, but ATS records tell you who the better bet is. These statements are not equivalent.

It all depends to the specific point spread of the game. 28-12 ATS team might have gotten their ATS wins on huge spreads because they were underestimated, kind of like the Knicks and Sixers. Does not mean their ATS record tells you its the better bet.

He was asking whether the books make adjustments in these cases and whether things even out. Meaning does the best ATS team to start the season even out to .500?

I divided the season in 2 halfs before 2011 and after. top 5 teams before the new year were SIxers, NY, Mavs, Grizz and SA. All finished top 10 on the year. But look at how they did since the new year.
Sixers 24-25
NY 26-23
Mavs 26-24
SA 26-23
Grizz 34-19

Only 1 team stayed consistently profitable.

I'd say there might be a team or 2 that the books just can't quite get right. Maybe their win margin isn't spectacular so they keep getting small spreads and winning. Maybe they lose games but stay very close and cover them anyway.

Same goes for the terrible ATS teams. I remember Kings where DEAD last at one point of the season. I mean last by like 3 or 4 games. Right around the time they went on that road trip i've written about a few times already. From 30th they finished the season 21st.

To me ATS records can only be useful when you narrow it down to the specific game situation, like playing a top team at home or something, and account for the type of spreads they got this record with to begin with. Overall ATS records imo are a waste.

[suicidekings]

If you look at anything across the scope of an entire season and all teams it loses value. That's not news. These are dynamic statistics and only one of many things to look at when assessing the value of a wager. Just because something looks meaningless in hindsight doesn't mean it was at the time.

Look at live betting as an analogy. Pregame, the spread is -2 for the home team and they dominate the 1Q, up 27-15 after 12 minutes. The live line balloons to -8.5 for the home team, but then the road team wins the 2Q & 3Q to enter the 4Q leading by 9 points and the books are selling the road team as -4.5 faves at the start of the 4Q. Then the home team dominates the 4Q and wins the game by 3 points. If you look at it after the fact and all you see was the home team covering by 1 point then you missed the massive value that was available during the game.

Nothing should just be taken at face value. It's all about perspective.

[JR007]

useful when following trends and angles

[Qtip]

I think ATS can be useful for Basketball regular season, but gets way to much attention in general. It seems to be highly overrated. I also see little to no use for it capping playoff games, you can go back and see the score/stats/margin for every game two teams met in the regular season and the ATS record means pretty much nothing.

When it comes to other sports especially football, stay away from worrying about ATS record.