[Love The Action]

I will be playing the Over tonight in the Heat/Sixers game. This game opened at 186.5 and has dropped a point down to 185.5. I think that gives us some good value on the Over in this game as everyone overreacts to the recent playoff under streak and the elimination game under trend.

38.5%
40.5%

Those were the respective shooting percentages of the Heat and Sixers in their game on Sunday. However, these two teams have played a quicker pace than the final score indicates. For my money, the under is way too easy here and I see both teams shooting better tonight. All we need is for both teams to be around the 43% mark for shooting tonight, while averaging around 30% from the three point arc, and this game should sneak over the posted total.

Everyone is going to think this game goes under. Right now you have anywhere between 60% and 75% of all bets on the under. After all, this is an elimination game so these two teams have to follow the elimination game under trend. Nah...I just don't see it. Did the Bulls and Pacers follow that trend? The Heat and Sixers series plays to a similar pace as that Bulls series, only faster. In addition, the Heat should be extremely motivated to shoot better after that dismal shooting performance on Sunday. The Sixers, on the other hand, have gained some confidence from that game and go into this game knowing they can play better than they have so far.

My reason for this play is the low posted total and the value provided thereby. This total opened at 186 and sits at 185.5 as I type. I like that total to drop to 185 and then rise before tip. Getting this game at 185, whether we have to buy the hook or not, just provides more value for the Over than the Under. Remember, all of these playoff lines are super sharp so you need to bet on the side with more value. A lot of these playoff game will come down to the last possession to decide the game total. For example, just look at that SA/Mem game from a couple nights ago. Therefore, betting the side with slightly more value will lead to winning nights more often than not in the playoffs.

I just think the total for this game should be set at around 189. By setting this total so low, the oddsmakers are sort of comparing this series to the Portland/Dallas series which has seen its totals set in the 186 range. Therefore, you should expect possession and pace stats to be similar. However, when you compare the stats for the Portland/Dallas series to this Heat/Sixer series, you see that the pace in this series is much faster. The Heat/Sixers series has been played uptempo, while the Dallas/Portland series has been played really slow. Therefore, I think we are seeing an overreaction to the 168 points scored in Sunday's game and all the recent playoff unders. Consequently, I think we have some good value on the Over here. As long as they don't shoot below 40%, we have really good odds to cash the Over.

The opening total for the Heat/Sixers series was 190. The teams scored 186 in that first game. The other games ended with respective totals of 177, 194 and 168. I like this game to end around 190, right where the oddsmakers set that opening game total.

I know all the "public" trends, which I do put some stock in, favor the under. We already know about the playoff under trend and the elimination under trend. However, those are the reasons you will see the public on the under tonight, just like the Bulls game last night. Something just tells me that this Heat/Sixers game will be similar to last night's Bulls/Pacers game. I think the Heat score 100 or more and cover the spread. As long as we can get 86 points from the Sixers, this game should go Over.

For the foregoing reasons, I will be locking in my play on the Over once I see the ref assignments. I also want to see which side Pinny and Mbk are juicing around mid-morning. I will probably be locking this play in around 12pm EST.

Good luck tonight. As always, I encourage your comments explaining why you like or dislike this play. Thanks.

[hoyas2007]

The four games so far in this series have not come close to 200 possessions. I have 175, 173, 168, 175. That's a pretty consistent pace - no reason to think it will be any different tonight. If you assume 172 possessions tonight, then you need 1.078 PPP to cover - only game 3 showed a PPP above this (1.157), although game 1 was close (1.065). The other two games were under 1 PPP. You do have a bit of a zigzag going on in this series - good PPP, bad PPP, good PPP, bad PPP - so if you like that trend, then perhaps both teams shoot better today and it goes over. I'm not so sure though. It's an elimination game so expect tough defense. Philly knows they have to play well on the defensive end to have a chance, so I expect them to focus a lot of energy there. Two of the refs, Steve Javie and Eric Lewis, both seem to favor the under. And there is a potential for a blowout, which favors the under - Miami will be happy to run the shot clock down if they have a big lead. Lastly, this isn't much of a public fade. Sportsbook Spy shows 54% on the under - barely a majority. I think I'm on the other side of you on this one.

[str8upslik]

i agree with the above poster. and the thing to me is that the heat know that they are gonna have to play better defense to wrap this series up, and they have already showed great signs of defense throughout the series. that, plus the elimination game under trend are just too much for me to trust the over in this spot.

[hoyas2007]

Memphis-SA under looks enticing. I think Poppovich is really going to get on his team for their defense in the third quarter of game 4 - I expect they'll come out and play some inspired defense tonight. Both teams shot fairly well last game, particularly in the first half, so there should be a renewed focus on defense across the board here. Pace has been slow all series - that should continue today. Refs favor the under. Public is on the over at 57%. The line is lower than it was at the start of the series, so not a ton of value here, but I think this is going to be a play for me. Could also look into the Grizzlies team total under 45.5 first half. I expect SAS will come out fired up, and that energy will be focused mostly on the defensive end

[Raleigh77]

how can u play an over in this game when the sixers cant score in the half court to save their lifes.

[hoyas2007]

OKC-Denver over could have some value as a public fade. I certainly like that over more than the Philly-Miami over

[Love The Action]

Been stuck in a meeting all morning and missed the line move from 185.5 up to 186.

In addition, as Hoyas pointed out, the refs really favor the under in this one.

Im still playing the over, but won't be on it for more than 1-2x.

Hoyas- awesome analysis..thank you. You are correct about the possesions. It seems my math was off because I was calculating everything on the train into work and my stats source incorrectly differentiated 3pt fg attempts from fg attempts.
Consequently, the possession part of my writeup was off about 18 to 20 possesions (fixed that part). Great catch..I appreciate that.

However, I still feel there is value in the over in this game. Defense will be at a premium, but I envision better efficiency on the offensive end from both teams. The heat should play much better. I have no doubts the heat will score 100 +. The question will be philly and if they can hit 86 +.

I think they do. I also think Philly has a bit more confidence after sunday. We'll see...not going to be a big play, but I just can't get off the over here no matter how hard I try. Sometimes, the obvious or easy play just doesn't work out. The obvious play is on the under, but the value points over, so I'm sticking with my original thoughts for better or worse.

Thanks to all who commented...good luck whichever side you guys play.

I really like the faves tonight as well. What do you guys think about a small ML parlay on the home faves tonight? I think the spurs show some
pride. Thoughts on that one?

[RZ]

It looks more like an under and it will be a one sided game where Heat pulls away. Can't see Philly score that much on the road.

[Love The Action]

Heat/Sixers Over 186 2x Locked

[GBrooks77]

You just wanna see the nude pics of the guy that has the under if it loses

[jubuck757]

I like that over play thinking about jumping on it myself....

[Love The Action]

OKC-Denver over could have some value as a public fade. I certainly like that over more than the Philly-Miami over

I do lean over here as well. All three refs favor the over big time (including Fraher the number one ref for overs). Nuggz shot only 38% last game and total still hit 205. Public is on the under as you mention anywhere between 75% & 80%. I will be keeping an eye on the line movement in this one and might lock it sometime after the heat game starts.

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Heat total up to 186.5...hopefully we see some late steam.

[hoyas2007]

Same logic as you for the OKC game. I think it has potential as a stronger play - I like that it has sound reasoning behind it, has the benefit of the refs, and is a public fade all in one. Both the Miami and Memphis totals have moved up a tad since this morning - not sure exactly what that means. I still like the under for both but probably won't play either too heavily since there seems to be some interest in the over for both.

[MrShrink]

do agree that this should be high-paced, wary of the heat puttin it away in the 1st half and slowing it down, though. on the over 1h. thanks for the insights all.

[hoyas2007]

I like the favorites tonight as well. I think we're going to see an Orlando-esque performance tonight from San Antonio. Memphis is tough, but I think San Antonio will play well. Miami should win. Oklahoma City is an interesting game. Denver was so good the last month of the season - it's crazy to me to think they may go out so easily. I wouldn't be surprised if they lay it all on the line and give OKC a great game tonight. OKC should win, but that seems like the riskiest of the 3 ML's tonight in my opinion

[ManBearPig]

I have been playing around with trying to predict the pace (WIP) for when two teams match-up with each other and I have this one around 89 poss/each or around 179. This is a little below each team's avg as well as the league avg. The tricky part is trying to calculate the adjusted PPP or efficiency ratings which I'm still messing so I'm not going to go there, but I would guess that Miami will come out focused ready to play some defense tonight. These pace ratings have the game going over but I also have other metrics that show it going under, so either way it'll be close but I would lean the under as this line is pretty spot on as one would expect.

Has anyone thought about a 1H under? Just some food for thought.

[Love The Action]

I have been playing around with trying to predict the pace (WIP) for when two teams match-up with each other and I have this one around 89 poss/each or around 179. This is a little below each team's avg as well as the league avg. The tricky part is trying to calculate the adjusted PPP or efficiency ratings which I'm still messing so I'm not going to go there, but I would guess that Miami will come out focused ready to play some defense tonight. These pace ratings have the game going over but I also have other metrics that show it going under, so either way it'll be close but I would lean the under as this line is pretty spot on as one would expect.

Has anyone thought about a 1H under? Just some food for thought.

Interesting stuff MBP...keep up the great work. I'm a no go for the 1h under, but good luck on all your plays!

[Love The Action]

I like the favorites tonight as well. I think we're going to see an Orlando-esque performance tonight from San Antonio. Memphis is tough, but I think San Antonio will play well. Miami should win. Oklahoma City is an interesting game. Denver was so good the last month of the season - it's crazy to me to think they may go out so easily. I wouldn't be surprised if they lay it all on the line and give OKC a great game tonight. OKC should win, but that seems like the riskiest of the 3 ML's tonight in my opinion

[Love The Action]

MLB
Cws/nyy under 9.5 .5x
Oakland ML (+ 155) .5x
Oakland over 7.5 .5x
Tb/minn under 7.5 1x
Pittsburgh ML (+ 100) 1x
Orioles ML (+ 130) .5x

[Love The Action]

Adding .5x to heat over for total of 2.5x...

Will be playing okc over and will lock it in soon.

Good luck tonight!

[hoyas2007]

Pace is really good for your over. I just cancelled my under bet in-game. I think we're going to see a lot of points in this game. They're on pace for 185-190 possessions which is a lot more than usual

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the update...im still stuck at work.

[ManBearPig]

The pace may slow a bit in the 2H as usually I notice that teams will start fast and end slow or vice-versa...not always the same all the way through, especially in the playoffs. Not on this one so hopin you guys pull a W though.

[alamo]

Chalmers and Jones off the bench shoot SIX treys !

[Love The Action]

Just got home...turned the game on at the end of the third quarter. Looks like this one is going to be really close....hopefully my prediction that it just sneaks over rings true! Let's get a little help from the Zebras too! BOL..

[Love The Action]

Going to definitely need some foul calls in this last minute to cash...

[Love The Action]

Freekin Wade misses the FT...

[No coincidences]

[DemoralizdDreamr]

i had the over 183.5 live
WOW

[DrAwInGdEaD]

Wade had money on the over.

[Sport_Fish]

fk wade,,,took a freebie

[Love The Action]

It "sneaked" over just as predicted

[Love The Action]

Almost forgot...

OKC/Den Over 205 1.5x Locked

[Love The Action]

As I mentioned in NoCoin's post about the ending, this game deserved to go over. First, if Wade didn't miss that free throw right at the end, this game would have went over anyway. Moreover, with respect to the freebie dunk, I believe Wade did the right thing. Philly was only down 4 points with seven seconds left. Once they missed that shot, they should have been immediately fouling to get another possession, maybe even two more possessions. However, Philly just gave up so Wade iced the game with the dunk. That put them up 6 with about three seconds left to ensure victory. As my coach always told me in football, you play until the whistle. Wade had a chance to ice the game with the free throw but missed, so he just iced it with the dunk instead. Game over....winner!