[scttyd47]

is it just me or does the under seem way to easy here...what do you guys think?

[powerhouse]

Thats where i get nervous, when it seems way too easy !!!

[scttyd47]

they have not scored over 206 all series..makes no sense to me

[Snowball]

it has been the line, once again Vegas is sticking to models.
just like Chicago -10 and Orlando -8 tomorrow.
their lines are statistical in nature.

[ThisGuy]

Prbly due for a barn burner, I'm biting on the over 205

[BigBoi]

GG posted the under is 3-0 in elimination games so far. Just something to consider.

[jacer333]

Under should be the play again, but these two teams could explode at any time. The potential for high scoring is enough to keep me away from this total.

[Love The Action]

I never want to be on the same side as the public when they are on one side 90% or more like in this case. Probably not playing this game though. I like the value in spurs over better. Bol...

[M.W.]

they have not scored over 206 all series..makes no sense to me

210 points in game one

[cornhuskfan]

I believe DEN will look to amp up their offense before those guys decide to buckle down on defense. I will most likely lay money on DEN team total to go over. Best of luck.

[qukubau]

i'm on the over 205.

[NBA_Brosuf]

-Public money on under
-public sees under in playoff been cashing
-public using stats that favors the under
-Last 2 games were under
-elimination game theory by gg says under
-the ride the trend theory folks been cashing on this trend thus far

Last game for Denver so you know they will play their best and playing your best will end up looking like game 1, no freaking defense whatsoever. No pressure on OKC to win at all so what motives do they have to play defense or offense for? Sure they would like to win but if you concentrate on playing more on the offensive side, you will less likely get hurt. Playing heavy defense is when you get hurt so if both of these squads would play offense only, the better offensive team will win. Offensive push for the over and whoever shoots better in the percentage will win that offensive game. It is not going to be a pretty win but a win is a win regardless.

[sportfan]

over

[ManBearPig]

Not my opinion just the stats...did a quick SDQL query.

All closeout games since 2006
O/U: 36-62-2 (-4.1) avg total: 191.4
Closeout games on the road
O/U: 22-36-1 (-3.7) avg total: 190.7
Limiting to round 1
O/U: 13-19-0 (-1.0) avg total: 190.3

It seems that leaning the under and trying to find a reason for it to go over would be a place to start...albeit a simple trend - it should have merit and considered as "part" of your decision. I think it's more telling that the avg totals have been around 190 than anything because you could add 10 and still be under for this game...anyways GL to whomever will care. As you were.

[forzuto13]

Like the under since they are playing in Denver. Teams play a notch more slowly in CO and the under has been solid at home for Nuggs.

[Snowball]

line seems stuck at 205 now.

i'm surprised this play is not being talked about more on SBR today.
everyone is so focused on the spurs/grizzlies team side.

I'm pretty big on the 1st Half Under here, got it earlier today at 105.

that' doesn't mean i don't like the whole game under, but at least there is no
chance of overtime and there is an extra few points in the 1h total.
i was just able to add a bit more on the u 105. surprised it's not at least 104 by now.

[FishFace5]

I mean can we squeak out one more under?
Literally almost every game in the playoffs has gone under

[NBA_Brosuf]

I mean can we squeak out one more under?
Literally almost every game in the playoffs has gone under

Basically, the guy that bets on the under for the whole playoff is milking it while you continue to ask "can we squeak out one more under"

This is the playoff and it is not un common that under rides more than 51% throughout this playoff. In other words, if you bet on under for every playoff game, you will make a profit by the end of the final game. (considering that we are not calculating juice into the equation at 51%)