[Love The Action]

Over in SA/Mem 4 units (more pending ref assignments). I have not locked it in yet because I am waiting to get 188.5 or 188 before the line goes back up to 189 or above.

Let me start this off by saying that I usually play unders and I enjoy playing them much more than overs. In addition, I was on all four unders on Sunday and cashed them all. It's clear, the playoffs have shown the under to be the right side more often than not. However, the SA/Mem game provides us with some good value on the over and I am going to play it for a minimum of 4 units. After checking the ref assignments, this wager may go up. I just have to play the value here.

The total opened at 189 and remains there as I type. Neither Pinny nor any other book is juicing either the over or the under. However, you currently have 66% of the public on the under which shows me the books are reluctant to lower this line. However, as the public bets come in, you will see that percentage slowly shift to favor the over. I would not take the over if it hits 191. However, I believe the line will go down to 188.5 or maybe even 188 by mid morning and then slowly rise back to about 190 from public money coming in on the over. Therefore, I plan on locking this in while I am at work around 9 or 10 am CST.

Because the last two games went under, we have great value on the over for a game involving two of the best "over" teams throughout the regular season. Perhaps you might say that the regular season doesn't matter? Well, it does give us an understanding of how these teams like to play. Even though both teams are good defensive teams, I think the pace of this game should provide us with an over when set at a total of 189 and below.

Here are some of the other reason I like the over here:

• The Spurs were the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season hitting over 30% . However, in the last game they only hit 2 for 15. If you add 3 to 4 more of those treys going in, you are going to add 9 to 12 points to the final score. That would be enough to put us over a total set at 188 or 189. I expect, after losing two games already, that the Spurs come out shooting and come out hot.
• The pace is one that should get us at least 190 points. We are looking at over 190 possessions and 160 fg attempts. All we need is these two teams to shoot around 43% to cash the over if they play at the current pace they have been playing
• My deviation spreadsheet has this game no lower than 193 points (although my spreadsheet is more conducive to the regular season).
• These two teams were a combined 48-33 in favor of the over when playing playoff caliber teams throughout the regular season. This means that, in playoff type games, both teams have a significant over lean when playing against other good teams.
• Both teams generally played to the over when either as a small (less than 2 points) dog or favorite this year.
• These two teams are a combined 8-2 to the over playing on one day rest in their last 10 games.
• I think that because all the unders hit on Sunday, you might have more of the public overreacting and playing the under more than normal. I love fading the majority. Although, I as I mentioned before, I expect money to come in on the over at some point.
• The Spurs know they need to play a fast paced, offensive game to win. They don't have the muscle to hang with Memphis (Randolph, Gasol, etc.) in the paint. Consequently, I think the Spurs understand they need to run and gun this game. They need to shoot a lot of threes and they need to keep up the pace to win. I trust that will happen and think Parker, Neal, Hill, Bonner and Jefferson to all have good games.

I like the Spurs to come out strong in this game. After all, this game is a must win for the Spurs. They will come out and give Memphis all they can handle. A lot of the Spurs had a poor second half last game and will want to redeem themselves. Especially Manu with that last play of the game.

At the end of the day, Memphis has played better so far and I think the Spurs take it personally. I like the Spurs to win this one 100 - 91 or so. Let's see who the refs are in the morning, because, as we all know, the refs can make or break and over/under play in the playoffs. If the refs favor the over in this one, I could up this to a six or ten unit play. I really like the value here. The only thing that would hold me back is my disdain for playing overs. I'll try to update the line movements and percentages tomorrow while I'm at work as much as possible.

Good luck guys. As always, I love to hear opposing viewpoints so we can learn from each other. So let me hear from you under backers.

[christhegun]

Great post, thanks for the insight. Will mull it over. I like San Antonio in this one too. BOL

[NFL49ers]

I still like the under on this game. Goodluck.

[hawley]

I think the Spurs will look to push it more in this game but im not sure about the over

[No coincidences]

I think I'm with you here -- at least at first glance.

In fact, I think if you played three overs tomorrow, I think you'd go at least 2-1.

[jacer333]

Great insight, thanks for all the info. This series seems to be the one bucking all of the under trends, so it may be worth continuing. Tough to bet overs in these playoffs though.

[blackbox]

Very nice writeup- good information - taking Memphis in this spot-no total this game. gl

[702underdog]

Good info however I am still liking the under, but could very well be wrong. GL on your play

[NY Playa]

I like Memphis once again.....over may also hit, but memphis is the play.

[SquareDinner]

Under is my play. I have a feeling that one team is going to be up by double digits so then they play the clock when there are only 5 minutes left of the 4th.

Ride under trend until it breaks.

[Love The Action]

Good thoughts guys, I totally understand why you guys like the under here. However, the fact that most of the games went under on Saturday and Sunday is why there is value in the over. We'll see, but I think we see the line dip a little giving us even more value in the 188 range.

I'm going out on a limb a bit here, but I just think the extra value brought out by all the recent unders is too good to pass up for two teams that played to the over in the regular season more often than not. Plus, coming into the playoffs, SA was on a huge over run.

We'll see. As of 7am CST, the line remains 189 with even juice on both sides. In addition, I see 70% + of all bets on the under. That's exactly what I want to see continue. As I stated earlier, it never hurts to be on the opposite side of the majority.

I am excited for this game. Should be a good one! Good luck with whatever you decide.

[thebestthereis]

189 automatically wants you on the over imo, i like the under because of that. there is my handicap in a nutshell. to me the rest is meaningless is most cases. good luck, i will sit this one out. memphis for the series so i will be chilin'.

[Love The Action]

189 automatically wants you on the over imo, i like the under because of that. there is my handicap in a nutshell. to me the rest is meaningless is most cases. good luck, i will sit this one out. memphis for the series so i will be chilin'.

I can't disagree. The books set the total that low for a reason. The first game was set around 196, so we find a significant drop to 189 in this game. Therefore, the books are definitely fearful of the under. That is why they set it so low. However, for a SA team that absolutely needs this game, I just see them hitting a few more three pointers and running a little more in this one. I would feel better if the game was in SA though.

Either way, I'm excited for this game. I just can't get off the over here no matter how hard I try. As I stated earlier, I hate playing overs, especially in these playoffs. However, I generally go with the value and against the public. In this case, that play is on the over. Thanks for your comments and good luck!

Anyone have some specific reasons why they like the under other than the whole playoff angle? I am interested in hearing some points that support the under, outside of that particular angle. Keep the comments coming! Thanks!

[Love The Action]

I think I'm with you here -- at least at first glance.

In fact, I think if you played three overs tomorrow, I think you'd go at least 2-1.

I sort of agree that we might see two overs tonight. However, I cannot pull the trigger on either of the other two games. Portland and Dallas play way too slow a pace and will require a high shooting percentage -- above 47% from both teams -- for the over to hit. I don't see that one happening.

In the OKC game, both of those teams are high scoring. However, coming into the playoffs, they both ramped up their defense and were both on huge under streaks. In addition, it's a lot harder to hit an over where the total is 206 + as opposed to 189.

In the case of SA and Memphis (especially SA), they came into the playoffs on hot over streaks. Therefore, I just have a feeling this one squeaks over because it is set so low at 189 for a high scoring, offensively efficient team like SA.

That is why I am playing over here, but still lean under on the other two games.

[nmodi]

LTA i m with on this one..."over" is d trend...SA shuld be charged up no doubt...but beating Memphis @home gonna be real close one...both team shuld keep scoring in 48 mins....I lean over in 1H line as well...let me know when u lock it

[Snowball]

Spurs will need those 3's to fall.. Manu's right elbow still bothering him..
good luck with this

[Love The Action]

Total down to 188.5 as predicted..looks like it will be going lower.

Unfortunately, the refs favor the under somewhat so I'm not making this a bigger play.

70%+of all bets are on the under, so I hope a nice public fade here turns out well.

All the totals have dipped for todays games as the public favors the under across the board. However, are we really going to see all unders again?

[Love The Action]

I just took the under in Portland/Dallas for one unit. That is the only under I am playing and the only one not favored by the public.

Still waiting for a lower price on the over in SA/Mem. Still at 188.5. Bol....

[Love The Action]

Pinny just started juicing the over -110, while giving away the under at + 100. It seems they are getting smart money on the over, despite almost 80% on the under.

I just locked my play in at 188 4 units (-120) and bought the hook. I understand buying points on totals is not really that smart, however, I dont think this total is going lower and I don't want to lose by the hook.

Good luck guys!

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I got the over at 188 on Bodog... just need a 95-94 type of game

[Love The Action]

I got the over at 188 on Bodog... just need a 95-94 type of game

[hoyas2007]

I just looked into the pace in the games these two teams have played this season - the first three games of the series went 179, 193, 176 in terms of total possessions, and the regular season matchups were all between 175 and 184. So that's a decent sample size and I think it's fair to assume you're going to get around 180 possessions. Maybe they'll pick it up a tad for the reasons you list, so there's a chance you could get 185 or maybe even 190, but based on the past 7 matchups, 193 was definitely an outlier, and low to mid 180s seems more likely. With that said, to reach 189 points you need 1.02 to 1.05 PPP. This is a very doable number - 4 of the last 6 matchups have gone over this, with only the last 2 matchups going under. The public is definitely adjusting to the last two games, which were lower than the previous 4. With SAS in a must win situation, I would expect them to come out focused and make some more shots which should help push this over.

On top of that, it's a public fade which is always good, and the line has adjusted a ton from a few games ago. Only thing that worries me is this is the playoffs, and teams play much harder defense in the playoffs (this can't be overstated enough). So based on the regular season matchups, that 1.05 PPP number looks really attainable, but given the increased intensity of the playoffs, it's definitely not a sure thing. This play of yours reminds me of your Bulls-Pacers play a couple days ago - again, the logic for the over was clear, but this is the playoffs and teams play much harder defense now and that's what ended up pushing that game way under. I could see the same thing happening here. I think I'll play the over, but it will be a small play - nothing more. I might try to play it in-game if the two teams start out cold and the line adjusts down a bit more. Good luck LTA

[NBA_Brosuf]

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing on the road against Memphis

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio

[Love The Action]

I just looked into the pace in the games these two teams have played this season - the first three games of the series went 179, 193, 176 in terms of total possessions, and the regular season matchups were all between 175 and 184. So that's a decent sample size and I think it's fair to assume you're going to get around 180 possessions. Maybe they'll pick it up a tad for the reasons you list, so there's a chance you could get 185 or maybe even 190, but based on the past 7 matchups, 193 was definitely an outlier, and low to mid 180s seems more likely. With that said, to reach 189 points you need 1.02 to 1.05 PPP. This is a very doable number - 4 of the last 6 matchups have gone over this, with only the last 2 matchups going under. The public is definitely adjusting to the last two games, which were lower than the previous 4. With SAS in a must win situation, I would expect them to come out focused and make some more shots which should help push this over.

On top of that, it's a public fade which is always good, and the line has adjusted a ton from a few games ago. Only thing that worries me is this is the playoffs, and teams play much harder defense in the playoffs (this can't be overstated enough). So based on the regular season matchups, that 1.05 PPP number looks really attainable, but given the increased intensity of the playoffs, it's definitely not a sure thing. This play of yours reminds me of your Bulls-Pacers play a couple days ago - again, the logic for the over was clear, but this is the playoffs and teams play much harder defense now and that's what ended up pushing that game way under. I could see the same thing happening here. I think I'll play the over, but it will be a small play - nothing more. I might try to play it in-game if the two teams start out cold and the line adjusts down a bit more.
Good luck LTA

Awesome analysis Hoyas!

I agree, this is just like the bulls over I lost a few days ago. However, I have more faith in SA to score and play a swift pace. SA is a better shooting team than the bulls or pacers as well.

I also agree about playoff defense, which is the reason I'm not making this a bigger play.

Thanks for the great analysis...I like your style. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing on the road against Memphis

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio

I 'm aware of those stats. However, all of those games were set at a total in the mid to high 190s. The reason I like this play is because of the value in the 188 number. SA only had a handful of games set this low for a reason and when it was set this low, they trended over.

Because of all the recent playoff unders, everyone loves the under here. However, there is a reason the books aren't going lower than 188.5 despite 75%+ of all bets on the under. The books want your money on the under here and are protecting against the over by not dropping it further.

Remember, a lot of times you need to bet where the value is and against the play that allegedly "makes sense."

Good luck in whatever you play and thanks for the contribution!

[sportfan]

I like the over too , Denver faces elimination there will be lots of foul down the stretch

[NBA_Brosuf]

I 'm aware of those stats. However, all of those games were set at a total in the mid to high 190s. The reason I like this play is because of the value in the 188 number. SA only had a handful of games set this low for a reason and when it was set this low, they trended over.

Because of all the recent playoff unders, everyone loves the under here. However, there is a reason the books aren't going lower than 188.5 despite 75%+ of all bets on the under. The books want your money on the under here and are protecting against the over by not dropping it further.

Remember, a lot of times you need to bet where the value is and against the play that allegedly "makes sense."

Good luck in whatever you play and thanks for the contribution!

Great come back and real talk there LTA. I totally forgotten about the inaccuracy about such stats and is blinded by its booty. LOL

OH well, I already picked the under for a small play. Should of followed you instead... pout!!!!

[Love The Action]

I like the over too , Denver faces elimination there will be lots of foul down the stretch

My play is on SA/mem over, not okc/den. I'm not sure about the total in that one and probably won't play it. Im on the under in portland/dallas for one unit and the over in SA/mem for 4 units.

Goodluck to you though!

[NBA_Brosuf]

My play is on SA/mem over, not okc/den. I'm not sure about the total in that one and probably won't play it. Im on the under in portland/dallas for one unit and the over in SA/mem for 4 units.

Goodluck to you though!

Don't mind if I follow you on the under play in Dallas.

[sportfan]

My play is on SA/mem over, not okc/den. I'm not sure about the total in that one and probably won't play it. Im on the under in portland/dallas for one unit and the over in SA/mem for 4 units.

Goodluck to you though!

Oh..my bad I like Spurs on that 1 though , total is a coin flip imo

[Love The Action]

Oh..my bad I like Spurs on that 1 though , total is a coin flip imo

No worries...good luck on your plays.

For those interested, pinny is currently juicing the over -113 and giving the under away at + 101. Looks to me like its about to go back up to 189. If that happens, I feel real good about buying the half point in this case, even though that strategy bucks traditional wisdom and should not be used with regularity on totals (some would say never).

Good luck tonight gentlemen!

[Love The Action]

Total up to 189 as predicted, despite 70%+ on the under.

As a sidenote, my mlb plays are:

Cincy/brewers under 8.5 1.5 units
Philly/az over 8.5 .5 units
Oakland ml (+ 132) .5 units
Toronto ml (+ 130) 1 unit

Lean over in oakland game and braves game.

Good luck tonight gentlemen!

[tom1234]

LTA, thanks for sharing all your plays, BOL

[JOHON8]

good luck LTA, appreciate the write up.

[uhuhahah]

SA and over...