[CanuckG]

Dallas is entering a very hostile environment..

My lean is 1Q/1H Trailblazers. I can see Portland coming out strong and feeding off the home crowd.

1q/1h stats for the 2 playoff games.

March 15, 2011: 104-101 Portland. 32-29 1Q for Dallas. 24-24 2Q.
Apr 3, 2011: 104-96 Portland. 23-17 1Q, 38-29 2Q

H2H match-ups:


Games at Portland from 2011 all the way down to 2007.

Portland -4 (won by 8)
Portland +1.5 (won by 3)
Portland -3.5 (won by 12)
Dallas +5.0 (won by 6)
Dallas +7.5 (won by 4)
Portland +2 (won by 3)
Portland +7.5 (won by 9)

Situational Trends:

Dallas Mavericks 13-6-0 ATS as Away Underdogs
Portland Trailblazers 25-8-0 SU at Home Favorite. 2-0 ATS and SU vs Dallas @ home this season.
Portland Trailblazers 6-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS past 3 seasons in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points
Overall, Portland was 28-20 ATS as a favorite this season but when laying between -3.5 and -6 points their record slipped to just 3-8 ATS.

Portland is 30-11 this season at the Rose Garden, winning 10 of their last 11. Overall against Dallas, the Blazers have a 46-18 advantage at home in the regular season, and they're 6-1 in playoff games.

The last time Dallas and Portland met in the playoffs was 2003. The Mavs claimed the first three games before the Blazers won the next three. The Mavericks took the deciding game in Dallas.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS as a road pup this year and 8-4 ATS in the first round the past three years. Even when losing three-straight on the road to the Spurs in `10, the Mavericks managed to stay within five points in each of the first two road games.

"We will protect home! We know yall are with us," Wesley Matthews posted on Twitter.

What are your predictions/plays?

[beerman2619]

I'm a huge Blazer fan but this team has problems especially with Roy whinning about minutes. I could see the Mavs covering and taking this game. Alot of pressure on the Blazers right now.

[CanuckG]

Yeah, I saw that in the paper today. Roy has to mature up.

[politicin]

DMavs

[SquareDinner]

There will be many games that are sitting at 2-0 and is going to 3-0.

ride the trends if I were you. I'm betting on Mavs. GAme 4 might be a zig zag.

[therealdealau]

Mavs line and ML for a little play

[Allstar]

Mavs Win + Game goes over.

[JOHON8]

Blazers really needed 1 of those games in Dallas, right now now the Mavs are going into game 3 confident and with players like Peja in good form.

What are the stats... only 14 out of the last 200ish teams have won a series coming back from 2-0?

[CanuckG]

Well we all know how well Dallas does up 2-0 in a series *cough* Miami Heat *cough*

13 teams I believe have come back down 2-0...

[kobstopa]

I think Portland will come out strong at home and win by 7-9 points. In game 1 they had Dal crushed with 5 min to go, they had offensive board after board for 2nd opportunity shots, Roy had his chance in that game, and he shouldn't come out rip it like that, they can depend on him to finish it late in the game at home. we seen him done that late in the season when Dallas came to town.
I am 60% certain that Portland will look to move Roy at some point now, he was the one who demanded Andre Miller be traded just before he was injured. It turned out Miller is what they need to get them back in the playoff run before and after AllStar.

[Love The Action]

I love this one to go under. First game went under, second game over and this game should go under.

Portland loves to play a slow, half-court game at home. I don't see that changing here. Plus, recent trends for both teams scream under here.

Dallas has been playing to the under since the start of the last month of the season. These teams shot over 48% in the last game. I don't see that continuing tonight. I would expect they both shoot under 45% as this game will turn into a defensive struggle from the outset.

The pace for both games has been relatively slow and very consistent. Both games saw 142 possessions. However, because of the high shooting percentage in game two, that one went over. With both teams reverting to their means tonight, I see another 142 possessions, but only about 180 in total points at the top end and probably an ending score in the 170s.

Wish I had time for a full write up on my thoughts for this one, but the under is the play for me. What do you guys think? Good luck!

[kobstopa]

I love this one to go under. First game went under, second game over and this game should go under.

Portland loves to play a slow, half-court game at home. I don't see that changing here. Plus, recent trends for both teams scream under here.

Dallas has been playing to the under since the start of the last month of the season. These teams shot over 48% in the last game. I don't see that continuing tonight. I would expect they both shoot under 45% as this game will turn into a defensive struggle from the outset.

The pace for both games has been relatively slow and very consistent. Both games saw 142 possessions. However, because of the high shooting percentage in game two, that one went over. With both teams reverting to their means tonight, I see another 142 possessions, but only about 180 in total points at the top end and probably an ending score in the 170s.

Wish I had time for a full write up on my thoughts for this one, but the under is the play for me. What do you guys think? Good luck!

I used to play & hit a lot of under for portland at home, but something about this game telling me will go higher, cause they can take a lot of 3's quickly (Fernandez, Miller, Roy,Wallace, Wesley, Mill, and Batum are good 3 shooters), especially late in the game & to ignite the crowd, get goin; the 3 goggle. Also can put a high FG % as well in the middle with lob pass & Lamarcus's shots. I am comfortable to say the Mav is a round 88 - 93 points, but port could go above 103-110

[CanuckG]

Agreed...under is juicy.

[kobstopa]

I used to play & hit a lot of under for portland at home, but something about this game telling me will go higher, cause they can take a lot of 3's quickly (Fernandez, Miller, Roy,Wallace, Wesley, Mill, and Batum are good 3 shooters), especially late in the game & to ignite the crowd, get goin; the 3 goggle. Also can put a high FG % as well in the middle with lob pass & Lamarcus's shots. I am comfortable to say the Mav is a round 88 - 93 points, but port could go above 103-110

I was right. it's not an under. the Mav held to a round 88 - 93 points.

[CanuckG]

grats. ended up playing 1q portland