Stifler,I couldn't find the moneybooker cash in the Sbr store.It's an old item?
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you would have to be an SBR PRO to be able to get it with points anywaysComment -
ah ok thx and that's why it doesnt appear in the list ?Comment -
may not have it in the store anymore. I just took a quick look through the store and did not see it.Comment -
- Portland line updated.
02.01.2013
S1
(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u
S3
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -4,5 1,10u
S4
(B Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland +4 2,31u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Dallas +10,5 1,10u
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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stiff thinking of throwing that C bet that I missed on portland +4 tonight I like that spot alot especially with Toronto coming off a blowout game of Orlando. Thoughts?Comment -
Well said...Comment -
S4 "A" and "B" bets combined are 23-9. Not a bad bet!!Comment -
OT - 5Dimes
Pretty disappointed with 5Dimes! Fake Rewards. First you have to read the fine print to get your 50% bonus because they automatically put you in their "reduced line" bonus which is instead of -110 is -109, unless you play the team they want you to play.
BTW - The TV show - Portlandia on IFC is real funny!!!Comment -
Geez. Blow out Wednesday. Glad one sort of canceled out . . .almost.
Having problems with "B" games lately losing 4 in a row?? "C" games are good but . . . .Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-02-13, 09:42 PM.Comment -
I used reduced lines and I find it very valuable. To my knowledge, this saves you 5 cents of juice per dollar (making the lines -105 instead of -110).
Sometimes you get -109 instead, but in that case they made the other line cheaper as well to -101, so it's fair..
I'd much rather have the 5 cents off my juice forever than some crappy roll-over this bonus balance 50 times in order to ever see a dime of it promotion.
Usually the lines come very close to pinnacle which is great for US players.Last edited by CrazyCarl; 01-02-13, 10:38 PM.Comment -
OK - why would reduced juice save you money on a chase. remember - you only lose juice when you lose. And if you only lose 8% of the time . . .
If you only lose - lets say 5 times in a year you could buy a 1/2 point on every game and it would never really cost you. In fact you would save money.
Think about it. In this chase you win 92% of the time. So 92% of the time buying 1/2 point will cost you nothing. Correct? Sure - if you lose a chase you payed more. But if that 1/2 point wins you a chase as opposed to losing (this has happened 2 times already this season) you more then pay for the -118 you paid for 4 games.
You yourself said juice is meaningless in a chase. Or was that Wallco. In NORMAL wagering yea - reduced juice is great. Nice for labbys.
If you lose all four games in a chase it costs you 1.84 more units. Instead of losing 18.45 you lose 20.39.
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BTW - the rollover is 10X for 50%. So winning 92% of the time with 50% free money . . . . then cash out and do it again at another book with 50% more free money. I did this 30 times at online casinos at $150 a pop playing Blackjack (thus my mane - Grinder). Only lost once. You are playing with free money!Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-02-13, 11:26 PM.Comment -
Juice matters either way. Comparing reducing juice to your half point thing is silly, since buying half points has the added affect of winning some more games, while paying less juice is always better than paying more juice. If juice doesn't matter in a chase system, just chase -700 favorites in a 4 game chase and go undefeated for a long while. But the loss will be amazingly high when it finally comes...
Let's spell it out...
4 game chase (-110 odds)
1.1u to win 1u
2.31u to win 2.1u
4.85u to win 4.41u
10.19u to win 9.26u
Total loss: 18.45
4game chase (-105 odds)
1.05u tw 1u
2.16u tw 2.05u
4.42u tw 4.21u
9.06u tw 8.63u
Total loss: 16.69
So, on losses, 1.76 units are saved.Comment -
Well yea - but if instead of a loss you win a chase with that extra 1/2 point so it by far off sets that 1+ unit.
There has been about 140 plays this chase so far. I could have purchased 1/2 unit 140 times. I would be UP 33.38 units by buying 1/2 a point on every game.
I've lost 4 chases so far. Two times because of 1/2 point earlier in the series. If I would have purchased 1/2 point I would be +36 units.
It goes against EVERYTHING buy buying a 1/2 point but in a chase it's not so stupid. In normal wagering it's very stupid.
If I could buy 20 points for -20,000 I would do it. Can't lose by 20 four games in a row!! LOLIf juice doesn't matter in a chase system, just chase -700 favorites in a 4 game chase and go undefeatedLast edited by Grinder12000; 01-02-13, 11:42 PM.Comment -
Easy to figure out though . . .sort of. 1/2 point victory will help you about 4% of the time. So 4 out of every 100 games you will win OR push instead of losing.
hmmmm working on the rest - I'll get back to youComment -
I said nothing of the sort. Don't bring me in to this senseless arguement. I actually sit here and wonder, do you ever talk to humans, or do you just sit by a computer all day and type EVERY SINGLE thought that randomly pops in your head. I say it's the latter, but why don't we ask Lincoln?Last edited by Wallco99; 01-03-13, 12:06 AM.Comment -
It's never thoughts - mostly numbers. But if you are not interested in eeking out an extra percentage then it does not matter does it. Personally I believe winning an extra 4% of the games on top of 92% is a good deal. But I'll let you go back to sleep!
and yes - humans are not very bright most of the time. They believe fallacies without ever really thinking if it's correct or not. I try to stay away from them.Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-03-13, 06:57 AM.Comment -
records:
S1: W 33 | L 2 (-3,90 units)
S2: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S3: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S4: W 22 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
pending:
- S2 Orl, B Bet on 07.01.2013
- S4 Tor fade, C Bet on 04.01.2013
- S1 Mil, B Bet on 04.01.2013
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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At the risk of upsetting Wallco here are the numbers.
If you purchased 1/2 a point on every game at -118 you would actually win about 6 extra units per year - if the back tested numbers hold up.
A 1/2 point will help you 4% of the time SO
"A" games would be 755-576 instead of 731-600
"B" games would be 340-236 instead of 344-256
"C" games would be 156-80 instead of 166-90
"D" games would be 61-19 instead of 67-23
On average instead of losing a chase 3.8 times a year you would lose 3.16 times a year
Instead of losing 70.11u in 3.8 losses (18.45u per loss) you would lose 63.80u in 3.16 losses (20.38u per loss).
So it's like playing the DON'T COME instead of the COME on a craps table.
HOWEVER - CrazyCarl is correct.
If you play every game at -105 because you have reduced juice you will still lose 3.8 times a year but each loss will be 16.69u for a total of -63.38u.
SO the final answer for decreasing your losses
Reduced juice every game wins at -63.38u
buy 1/2 point EVERY game -63.80u
Do nothing -70.11u
But of course because buying a 1/2 point will give you less losses you will win 218.6 chases a year as opposed to 218.0 Freakishly even.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-03-13, 08:45 AM.Comment -
People need to understand the difference between relevant statistics and making shit up.
Basing your decision to buy half a point because it would have been helpful so far this year is not enough of a backtest to justify that decision.
Estimating that it helps 4% of the time is not relevant because it's a guess. Do the backtest and run the numbers. Otherwise, you're building on an unproven assumption, which is very poor logic.
It may turn out that buying half a point in a chase system is worth it but nothing I've seen here so far is proof of that.Comment -
you are arguing with yourself grinder. i was saying reduced juice is a good bonus, and nothing about buying half points.Comment -
Not understanding why people just can't play stiffler's posted plays.....Comment -
Actually it's 3.8% taken over the last 10 years. it's a fact. I have 25 years of lines for every game played.Estimating that it helps 4% of the time is not relevant because it's a guess.
Sorry - guess you guys are not into numbers. I wrongly believed gamblers were number people. I will keep the winning MORE money theory's to myself.
All you want to do is suck in Stifflers tit for free money without using your brains at all.
Sorry Stiff. The thread now belongs to the thread police and I'll shut-up.Comment -
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Why are so many off topic posts in this thread. People you want to debate 1/2 point or reduced juice, make your own thread.Comment -
I just hope some of you guys become politicians so you can have those pointless debates in and out every day, without any real value added to the society, clogging up the thread, but thru making this artificial commotion you can pretend that you are doing something important like trying to reinvent the wheel, therefore feel important and fulfill your huge egos with smart ass comments.
P.S. to preanticipate any smart-ass who is gonna jump out to tell me that I am clogging up the thread as well, Yes, I am aware of it, thank you very much for showing up and being so accurate and apprehensive, go and look out for some terrorist maybe then...Comment
