nba chase 12/13

**Stifler** · 01-01-13, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

31.12.2012

S1

(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -8 1,10u | Indiana +3 2,31u | Indiana +1 4,85u
(A Bet) Chic fade: Charlotte +11,5 1,10u

S4

(C Bet) Atl fade: Cleveland +5,5 1,10u | Indiana +3 2,31u | Houston -4 4,85u

records:
S1: W 33 | L 2 (-3,90 units)
S2: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S3: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
S4: W 21 | L 0 (+22,00 units)

pending:
- S2 Orl, B Bet on 07.01.2013
- S4 Tor fade, B Bet on 02.01.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 01-01-13, 07:34 AM

01.01.2013

no plays today

**TheJettylife** · 01-01-13, 09:32 AM

I slipped up yesterday and missed the first C bet on indiana. I wasn't aware the game was starting early. What do you guys think is the best way to play that C bet? Just let it go? Hurts my hurt

**Nino7** · 01-01-13, 10:05 AM

Happy new year

**Teamprofit101** · 01-01-13, 12:11 PM

Happy New Year Guys!!! I love this thread and stiff your doing an awesome job. I always enjoy all the small talk and arguments, it does feel like a community

**Wallco99** · 01-01-13, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by TheJettylife

I slipped up yesterday and missed the first C bet on indiana. I wasn't aware the game was starting early. What do you guys think is the best way to play that C bet? Just let it go? Hurts my hurt

It sucks, but you have to let it go. It may win, but any backtests that were done on system at all did not test for a series winning twice. Too risky in my opinion, but then again, just my opinion.

**tr4sh** · 01-01-13, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by TheJettylife

I slipped up yesterday and missed the first C bet on indiana. I wasn't aware the game was starting early. What do you guys think is the best way to play that C bet? Just let it go? Hurts my hurt

If you really want to make up for it, imo the best thing to do would be to try and win 1.1/1.2 units per series until you make up the loss.

**Grinder12000** · 01-01-13, 02:21 PM

I slipped up yesterday and missed the first C bet on indiana. I wasn't aware the game was starting early. What do you guys think is the best way to play that C bet? Just let it go? Hurts my hurt

Here is an idea. Absorb it into the next few Chases. You are 4.41u down. So maybe . . . put an extra 1.1u on the next four Chases? I'm sure Wallco will figure out the math as I'm playing poker and thinking out loud here but you get the idea.

**CrazyCarl** · 01-01-13, 02:24 PM

I miss games all the time and don't worry about it. Sometimes it works for me (if I miss A and B game and won a C game, I just won several more units than I should), sometimes against.

**Wallco99** · 01-01-13, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by tr4sh

If you really want to make up for it, imo the best thing to do would be to try and win 1.1/1.2 units per series until you make up the loss.

That was my other suggestion. But the way my luck went last year, I missed three bets, tried that each time, and by the luck of the bet gods, lost two series at a higher rate. I know it was just a freak coincidence, but it soured me on upping my bets.

**Wallco99** · 01-01-13, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Here is an idea. Absorb it into the next few Chases. You are 4.41u down. So maybe . . . put an extra 1.1u on the next four Chases? I'm sure Wallco will figure out the math as I'm playing poker and thinking out loud here but you get the idea.

It should be 3.41 that he is down, but yes, that is an option. And with my experience of losing a few of these, I would be even more disciplined. Try to win the extra 1.1 on next few series, meaning try to win 2.1 units instead of 1 unit. But I would only do it on the (A) bet. If that loses, continue the series trying to win 1 unit again, and play the 2.1 again on the next (A) bet, until they all hit. Basically this means you will need to hit three (A) bets before a system loss occurs. If this happens, you will recover your 3.41 units, and can start playing series (A) bets at 1 unit again. If you also want to profit 1 unit from the series you missed, then you would need to win a fourth game (4.41 units) as Grinder said. But in my opinion, I wouldn't play the whole 4 game chase trying to recover the units, the loss would be in excess of 38 units.

**TheJettylife** · 01-01-13, 05:24 PM

Awesome think ill try the double on the A bets and see how that goes never missed a bet with stiff since I followed him last baseball season...appreciate the input glad you guys were able to clear your C bets!

**Stifler** · 01-01-13, 06:58 PM

And if those A bets for 2.1 units lose? He needs to recover the extra lost amount aswell, couldnt see that being recovered in the way wallco posted it.

Cant give any advice on how to play that, u have to make the decision. Personally i would pick 2 nice looking spots and play a single game as a C bet and another single one on the D bet (if necessary). But thats just me...

**Want2Win** · 01-01-13, 07:18 PM

Stif, I don't post to often, (hope my points mean something to you) but wanted to thank you for your hard work, and ease in reading your posts on the plays for the day. Here is wishing you a very Happy New Year. Much joy!

**alexknyc** · 01-01-13, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by TheJettylife

I slipped up yesterday and missed the first C bet on indiana. I wasn't aware the game was starting early. What do you guys think is the best way to play that C bet? Just let it go? Hurts my hurt

I'd let it go.

Shit happens and if one unit is that big a deal to you, your unit size is too big.

**parlay100** · 01-01-13, 07:49 PM

Stiffler,
Thanks for all you do.

Can you please help me understand S2? For example Orlando.

S2: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.Divide in home/road games.

12/31/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404171.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840709.html (OT)	W 10	O 194
12/29/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404330.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840694.html	L -3.5	O 187.5
12/28/12	@covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404067.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840680.html	L -1.5	O 182.5
12/26/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404101.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840667.html	L -3	O 182
12/23/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840656.html	L -1	O 187.5
12/21/12	@covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404330.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840635.html	W 3.5	U 187.5

So they lost three in a row, but covered 12/31. Can you explain "divide in home/ road games.

Thank you i understand you are busy.

**Wallco99** · 01-01-13, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

And if those A bets for 2.1 units lose? He needs to recover the extra lost amount aswell, couldnt see that being recovered in the way wallco posted it.

Cant give any advice on how to play that, u have to make the decision. Personally i would pick 2 nice looking spots and play a single game as a C bet and another single one on the D bet (if necessary). But thats just me...

Sure it is. The B bet would be for Amount lost on (A) bet plus 1 unit, not plus 2.1 units. When series wins, the (A) loss will be recovered, and if series loses, it will cost a little more than a regular loss, but not as much as a loss trying to win the 2.1 units on ALL 4 bets, which would exceed 38 units. This is why I said he would have to win three (A) bets before suffering a series loss. Because if a series should lose, there will be even more to make up. Or he could just stick with my original advice and eat the 3.41 unit loss.

**Asset** · 01-01-13, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by parlay100

Stiffler,
Thanks for all you do.

Can you please help me understand S2? For example Orlando.

S2: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.Divide in home/road games.

12/31/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404171.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840709.html (OT)	W 10	O 194
12/29/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404330.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840694.html	L -3.5	O 187.5
12/28/12	@covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404067.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840680.html	L -1.5	O 182.5
12/26/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404101.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840667.html	L -3	O 182
12/23/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840656.html	L -1	O 187.5
12/21/12	@covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404330.html	L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2012-2013/boxscore840635.html	W 3.5	U 187.5

So they lost three in a row, but covered 12/31. Can you explain "divide in home/ road games.

Thank you i understand you are busy.

Okay I'll try to help you understand an "S2" system play. Here we go...
Take a look at dates 12/23, 12/26, & 12/29. As you can see all the games are @home. And they all loss, so since they all lost @home we start the 4 game chase "ONLY" @home games. Which means you would fade them. I hope this helps you understand it much better

@Stif: I hope you don't mind me answering the question for ya

Btw I know its KINDA early, but HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

**Grinder12000** · 01-01-13, 09:28 PM

What the heck can you use those points for anyway ????

Can you please help me understand S2? For example Orlando.

Another way - just pretend you have three schedules.

S1 is ALL games
S2 uses the other two schedules. One is all HOME games and one is all AWAY games. S2 uses the schedules as separate entities.

**parlay100** · 01-01-13, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by Asset

Okay I'll try to help you understand an "S2" system play. Here we go...
Take a look at dates 12/23, 12/26, & 12/29. As you can see all the games are @home. And they all loss, so since they all lost @home we start the 4 game chase "ONLY" @home games. Which means you would fade them. I hope this helps you understand it much better

@Stif: I hope you don't mind me answering the question for ya

Btw I know its KINDA early, but HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

got it thank you sir!

**Spartacuss** · 01-02-13, 02:24 AM

i know philly is on the forbiden list... but this morning it was S1.. w w w L L. So i took the bet for philly to win as an (A) bet with a (C) handycap. Tomorrow I'll do the same with fade Oklahoma (A) as a (C) handycap. Ive been doing this with college basketball for the last few weeks and its working out well.

Any comments!

**Stifler** · 01-02-13, 07:02 AM

What the heck can you use those points for anyway ????

sbr store?

cashed out 20k points after mlb season for another 1000 €. I will take it...Sbr offers some really nice things, thats what makes this site so interesting.

Sure it is. The B bet would be for Amount lost on (A) bet plus 1 unit, not plus 2.1 units. When series wins, the (A) loss will be recovered, and if series loses, it will cost a little more than a regular loss, but not as much as a loss trying to win the 2.1 units on ALL 4 bets, which would exceed 38 units. This is why I said he would have to win three (A) bets before suffering a series loss. Because if a series should lose, there will be even more to make up. Or he could just stick with my original advice and eat the 3.41 unit loss.

i just hope he gets that.

**Grinder12000** · 01-02-13, 07:09 AM

i know philly is on the forbiden list... but this morning it was S1.. w w w L L.

Philly is 50-1 in the last 10 years so I see no problem. I THINK they are not on the list as they have too many "D" games or some other reason Stifler is not using them. Seems like a plan. They did just win their virtual "C" game last night. They are one streaky team this year.

**Nino7** · 01-02-13, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

sbr store?

cashed out 20k points after mlb season for another 1000 €. I will take it...Sbr offers some really nice things, thats what makes this site so interesting.

i just hope he gets that.

u changed these points into sportbook cash right?

**TheJettylife** · 01-02-13, 07:25 AM

Appreciate all the help with the C bet missed. might just pick a spot and roll the dice on a C Bet....Gambler at heart haha...And thanks stiff for all your work man hope you have a great new year!

**miel12** · 01-02-13, 08:32 AM

Hi,

Im new to this forum amd I am intrigued by this system. I already read page 46 so don't worry

So I'm still trying to sink it all in but can somebody correct me if I'm wrong. From how I saw S4, Miami had an OT game with the Magic their last game, so does that now mean that I should take Dallas with the point spread for tonight's game? And if so, this will be an A-bet right?

**Stifler** · 01-02-13, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by Nino7

u changed these points into sportbook cash right?

this would be a better option, but this time i changed it into moneybookers cash

So I'm still trying to sink it all in but can somebody correct me if I'm wrong. From how I saw S4, Miami had an OT game with the Magic their last game, so does that now mean that I should take Dallas with the point spread for tonight's game? And if so, this will be an A-bet right?

yes, Mia fade A bet will be a play today, also S4 Tor fade (B bet) and S3 Tor (crossover game here). Thats what i have on my list already, but didnt check S1 and S2 for today, will post the plays in about 3 hours.

**Grinder12000** · 01-02-13, 09:46 AM

Oops

**chewbaka** · 01-02-13, 11:33 AM

Stifler.. OOT, would you mind backtesting a chase system for "4 road games in 5 nights" scenarios?

**Nino7** · 01-02-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by chewbaka

Stifler.. OOT, would you mind backtesting a chase system for "4 road games in 5 nights" scenarios?

**wade1** · 01-02-13, 12:05 PM

Chew, Backtest it yourself

**comala57** · 01-02-13, 12:15 PM

You know what is sad... Home sick today and have checked this thread for stiflers updates like it is crack for an addict. lol.

**Asset** · 01-02-13, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by chewbaka

Stifler.. OOT, would you mind backtesting a chase system for "4 road games in 5 nights" scenarios?

This dude/gal is funny...

**Stifler** · 01-02-13, 12:21 PM

02.01.2013

S1

(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u

S3

(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -4,5 1,10u

S4

(B Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Mia fade: Dallas +10,5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Kababayan** · 01-02-13, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by comala57

You know what is sad... Home sick today and have checked this thread for stiflers updates like it is crack for an addict. lol.

I know exactly what you mean.