Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[black lab]

im having a difficult time buying the validity of her injury..

[Catchn_Picks]

Wow...I thought this future bet was money...what a match...I can't fault...I think she was really hurt...crying to the trainer.

She should have never played that long Doubles match with Venus...just bad timing, I guess.

[davopnz]

She was fine in the last set, just outplayed by a younger version of herself

[thewhiteguy]

Sando any leans for tsonga fed?

[sando]

Tennis - Well when the wheels fall off I tend to really do a good job. Last 5 resulted tennis wagers of mine...

Li v Radwanska
Over 21 (-103, $1.97 Pinnacle) 1.5x - Cruising towards what looked to be an easy winner and then A-Rad just fell apart towards then end of the second set and lucky to escape with the push.

Marchenko v Phau
Marchenko m/l (-112, $1.89 Sportsbet) 1x - Marchenko crushing Phau without mercy and the German retires. Usually I place 80% of my tennis wagers at Pinnacle because of the superior odds, however on this occasion placed the wager with sportsbet who of course void all m/l bets unless the match is 100% completed.

Djokovic v Berdych
Berdych +6 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 2x - Could not have been more wrong on this. Berdych was a joke, even the second set win was an anomaly, was never in the match from the third game onwards. Djokovic crushed him so bad he (Berdych) actually looked like a player outside the top 50 as opposed to the #6 in the world.

Murray v Chardy
Murray -2.5 Sets [or 3-0] (-164, $1.61 Pinnacle) 2x - Finally an easy winner, but alas more dramas. I was so involved in crunching the numbers on some ITF tennis matches at the Heilbronn tourney that I forgot to place the fukcing wager with Pinny, and actually had decided to play it for 3 units instead of 2 in my head as I was really liking Murray's serious no nonsense game as it matches up against Chardy's flare and power hitting.

Serena Williams future bet 3x - Un-believable. Everyone knows that I haven't slept on Sloane as I wager on her all the time, but the form Serena was in I would not have been suprised if she beat Masha 6-2 6-3 in the final. I was really counting on that future bet to make back some of my recent tennis losses and I know others were in the same boat.

________________________________________ _________________________

Ok now that I've got my venting out of the way down to business. This is the way I see the rest of the women's tourney playing out. Sharapova beats Li comfortably in straight sets and Azarenka defeats Stevens. Not sure if it will be tight or Aza will blow through her but I am confident Aza will get the job done. In the final I have no doubt Masha will win, although I am very aware that I have not had my finger on the pulse this AO by any stretch of the imagination, but regardless I am extremely familiar with Masha, Aza and Li and somewhat familiar with the Sloane ranger and I know from previous results that when Masha is hot her only weakness is Serena, it's more mental than physical as Sharapova hits almost as hard as Serena done and with almost as much accuracy, it's like Serena is her kryptonite. Now that Williams is gone I will be loading up on Masha to win the tournament some time over the next 12 hours as I search for a nice price. So far I haven't found any better than evens (Centrebet, IAS, Sportsbet, Bet 365, Paddy, 188) and will probably end up taking the even money for 4-5 units, most likely 5. No I am not chasing, but think what you will, bothers me not. I can assure you nobody in the world was more happy with Stevens win today than Maria Sharapova, possibly not even Sloane herself.

[brumbies]

I remember one funny situation in Croatia. Last year Cibona (the best basketball team in Croatia) lost one game in domestic championship. They were clear favourite. After the game one Cibona fan was very frustrated and came to Cibona coach and complained about losing his parlay just because of Cibona. He even showed his ticket to the coach. At the end the coach payed him the sum he was supposed to win if Cibona had won the game.

you are kidding, right?

[mvanja]

you are kidding, right?

No, he is not, I'm from Croatia and I remember that story.

[thewhiteguy]

Tennis - Well when the wheels fall off I tend to really do a good job. Last 5 resulted tennis wagers of mine...

Li v Radwanska
Over 21 (-103, $1.97 Pinnacle) 1.5x - Cruising towards what looked to be an easy winner and then A-Rad just fell apart towards then end of the second set and lucky to escape with the push.

Marchenko v Phau
Marchenko m/l (-112, $1.89 Sportsbet) 1x - Marchenko crushing Phau without mercy and the German retires. Usually I place 80% of my tennis wagers at Pinnacle because of the superior odds, however on this occasion placed the wager with sportsbet who of course void all m/l bets unless the match is 100% completed.

Djokovic v Berdych
Berdych +6 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 2x - Could not have been more wrong on this. Berdych was a joke, even the second set win was an anomaly, was never in the match from the third game onwards. Djokovic crushed him so bad he (Berdych) actually looked like a player outside the top 50 as opposed to the #6 in the world.

Murray v Chardy
Murray -2.5 Sets [or 3-0] (-164, $1.61 Pinnacle) 2x - Finally an easy winner, but alas more dramas. I was so involved in crunching the numbers on some ITF tennis matches at the Heilbronn tourney that I forgot to place the fukcing wager with Pinny, and actually had decided to play it for 3 units instead of 2 in my head as I was really liking Murray's serious no nonsense game as it matches up against Chardy's flare and power hitting.

Serena Williams future bet 3x - Un-believable. Everyone knows that I haven't slept on Sloane as I wager on her all the time, but the form Serena was in I would not have been suprised if she beat Masha 6-2 6-3 in the final. I was really counting on that future bet to make back some of my recent tennis losses and I know others were in the same boat.

Yeah man I have been shocked at some of your luck lately. Even before these games you have been getting fukked hard, But you rode it out and minimized your losses which is the sign of a true pro.

[hedgejob]

Tsonga ML 5.30

May the force be with yous.

[thewhiteguy]

Tsonga ML 5.30

May the force be with yous.

[tEABAG]

Tsonga isn't going to win a set. Just send your money to me.

[sando]

Sando any leans for tsonga fed?

This is what I've got mate.

First I would like to say I vividly remember Wimbledon 2011 when Tsonga came back from 2 sets down to beat Federer in 5. I was saddened to see the Fed implode in the 4th and 5th like he did, having said that I am reasonably confident Federer will not have any mental lapses if he gets out to an early lead today, as it was without a doubt one of the most memorable matches (for all the wrong reasons) Fed has ever played. I believe Fed will win this match in 4 at the most and also will go on to beat Murray in an epic in the semi's, but no need to get ahead of ourselves. These are the wagers I like (but have not committed to)

Fed to win 1st set (-285, $1.35 Pinnacle)
Fed to win 3-1 (+250, $3.50 Sportsbet)
Over 38 (-126, $1.79 Pinnacle)

[sando]

Lining up a BIG play in the NBA tomorrow. Just finalising my research, will post my early plays within an hour.

[davopnz]

I really feel as though fed will crush Tsonga tonight, Tsonga was such a bitch at the end of last year and he hasn't had to play anyone good since then(don't rate a gasquet who was lucky to be dodig) Obviously fed hasn't had to face anyone great either just mud tomic and fat raonic but feds was in fine form last year and looks stunning atm, might be wrong though certainly not as confident as I was with Joker to crush birdshit last night.

Love the pova future for sure, Aza was lucky to beat hampton.

[thewhiteguy]

1u over 38.5
.5u Fed 3-1

[sando]

I really feel as though fed will crush Tsonga tonight, Tsonga was such a bitch at the end of last year and he hasn't had to play anyone good since then(don't rate a gasquet who was lucky to be dodig) Obviously fed hasn't had to face anyone great either just mud tomic and fat raonic but feds was in fine form last year and looks stunning atm, might be wrong though certainly not as confident as I was with Joker to crush birdshit last night.

Love the pova future for sure, Aza was lucky to beat hampton.

You've been very sharp this AO mate, thanks for all the solid input.

[davopnz]

You've been very sharp this AO mate, thanks for all the solid input.

Cheers man, like I say tonight I'll only be having a small punt because I know Tsonga has the game to give Feds a run for his money if he's in form. Unfortunately the easy money is in the early rounds I've found(really miss having heaps of matches on)

Going to be a bit of a dry spell after the A/O finishes as I haven't been betting on NBA lately, the amount of bad beats I've had this season has taken 5 years of my life lol

[Dmoneytx]

Hey Sando, I wanted to let you know that I tailed your two picks tonight of Detroit and Milw! I had a GOOD feeling that Mich St was going to hang tough tonight (they actually won as 5.5 dogs) and I added your two picks with Det and Milw. I want to thank you bec they made me extra money tonight that I would not have made if it wasn't for you! Thanks brotha!!!

This one put back $428.57 in my acct:

ONLINE 01/22/2013 03:05 PM

[ # 134103728 ] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (1P-3T)( Risking: 125.00 - To Win: 303.57 ) WIN 01/22/2013 04:45 PM NBA [504] DETROIT -4-120 (B+½)Score: ORLANDO(90) - DETROIT(105) WIN 01/22/2013 04:10 PM CBB [511] MICHIGAN STATE +7-140 (B+1½)Score: MICHIGAN STATE(49) - WISCONSIN(47) WIN 01/22/2013 04:10 PM CBB [518] MISSOURI -1100Score: SOUTH CAROLINA(65) - MISSOURI(71) WIN

This one put back $350.65 in my account:

ONLINE 01/22/2013 03:06 PM [ # 134103813 ] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (1P-3T)( Risking: 125.00 - To Win: 225.65 ) WIN 01/22/2013 04:45 PM NBA [504] DETROIT -200Score: ORLANDO(90) - DETROIT(105) WIN 01/22/2013 05:15 PM NBA [506] MILWAUKEE -5-140 (B+1½)Score: PHILADELPHIA(102) - MILWAUKEE(110) WIN 01/22/2013 04:10 PM CBB [518] MISSOURI -1100Score: SOUTH CAROLINA(65) - MISSOURI(71) WIN

This one put back $176.33 in my account:

ONLINE 01/22/2013 03:06 PM

[ # 134103891 ] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (1P-3T)( Risking: 55.00 - To Win: 121.33 ) WIN 01/22/2013 05:15 PM NBA [506] MILWAUKEE -5-140 (B+1½)Score: PHILADELPHIA(102) - MILWAUKEE(110) WIN 01/22/2013 04:10 PM CBB [511] MICHIGAN STATE +7-140 (B+1½)Score: MICHIGAN STATE(49) - WISCONSIN(47) WIN 01/22/2013 04:10 PM CBB [518] MISSOURI -1100Score: SOUTH CAROLINA(65) - MISSOURI(71) WIN

And then a small straight to put $128.57 back in my acct:

ONLINE 01/22/2013 03:08 PM

[ # 134104051 ] STRAIGHT BET( Risking: 75.00 - To Win: 53.57 ) WIN 01/22/2013 05:15 PM NBA [506] MILWAUKEE -5-140 (B+1½)Score: PHILADELPHIA(102) - MILWAUKEE(110) WIN

I wouldn't of put Milw OR Det in either of those parlays, I made around 7 units with your help tonight on just the basketball alone. I had to show ya my love. And I had to say thank you very much. Keep up the hard work, appreciate it! Cheers!

[sando]

Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

2-2 Tuesday in the NBA +0.76 Units (+ nice parlay hit on the Pistons and Bucks)

NBA 188-151-12 (+42.87 Units) 55.5%

(NBA ATS/ML 134-112-9 YTD) 54.5%

(NBA Totals 54-39-3 YTD) 58.1%

YTD 48-46-1

NBA prop bets YTD 5-4

NBA Parlays YTD 2-1

NBA Teaser's YTD 0-3

NBA 2nd Half Bets YTD 0-1


All time SBR Picks

MMA/Boxing 8-10 (+12.86 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units)
Tennis - to be calculated (Down on the year, but still up units on overall record)

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum

________________________________________

NBA Wednesday

Phoenix @ Sacramento
Kings -3.5 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 3x

Ok lets start with an impressive stat. Kings at home are an impressive 12-10 an altogether different beast to the one that heads out on the road (4-16), whilst the Suns are a woeful 3-17 on the road (worst road team in the NBA) with two road wins over Cleveland and Charlotte (nothing special) and the 1 impressive win over Chicago although the Bulls are known to pull out complete shockers from time to time and are one of the worst ATS teams to wager on. The Kings on the other hand have home wins over the Celtics, Knicks, Blazers, Warriors (twice), Raptors (no longer deserving of the "Craptors" title), Jazz and of course a destruction of the Lakers. Phoenix is without a doubt an offensive first team (as they always will be under Gentry) and whilst far removed from their dominant run n' gun days (Nash/Stoudemire) they still remain a team that lives and dies by their offence, not their defence. Notice that a lot of the kings home wins have been over some of the most dominant offensive teams in the league - Knicks, Warriors (twice), Lakers, Jazz; even the Blazers and Raptors are in the top half of the league offensively. With the speed and penetration of Thomas and Evans and the very effective inside/out game they run through Cousins you will struggle to beat the Kings (at home) in an offensive showdown without being an elite team.

Here is the most impressive part of the Kings performances at home, their 10 losses.

Heat
Mavericks
Grizzlies
Nuggets
Pacers
Timberwolves
Nets
Hawks
Blazers
Spurs

All playoff caliber teams, perhaps the Blazers, Mav's and/or Wolves will miss the playoffs but they will be there or there-abouts in the West and every single team on that list would make the playoffs if they were in the weak East. Also every team on that list is superior to the Suns. The Kings do not lose to average teams at home. Average winning margin over teams similar to the Suns (slightly better or worse) = 8.42 points.

Whilst actually loaded with talent (Cousins, Evans, Thornton, Fridette) the key to the success of this team is without a doubt Isaiah Thomas. Think a quicker Nate Robinson, with a higher basketball IQ and better passing. If not for his own penetration off the dribble, or his improved ability to hit the open man, it is his suprising connection with DeMarcus and the ability to implement a simple but effective inside/out game plan (that they do not run often enough IMO) with Cousins dishing from the post (an underrated passer). Also the kid appears to have come of age this season, after showing glimpses of his potential last year, he has actually started taking over games in the 4th quarters, the exact time when stars like Kobe, Durant and D-Wade usually earn their salary's. I watch a lot of pacific basketball, my favorite teams ALL play in the Pacific and I have hardly missed more than 1 or 2 Kings games all season. I also have followed the rise of Thomas closely. Here is a post I made about him after a spectacular 4th quarter against OKC.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/2073732-isiah-thomas-second-coming.html


Match up's

Cousins v Gortat - The Pole is talented and skillful but just not the same this year without Nash. Also he is physically inferior to Cousins who without a doubt can outmuscle and manhandle him in the post and back him down at will under single coverage. Of course DeMarcus is almost demanding of a double team from most teams as he continues his evolution into one of the most physically dominant players in the league, although mentally he still has a long way to go.

This team has almost no good coaches ATM. No Gentry, no Majerle, no Turner, instead they are left with an ex player who has never coached at any level before. This team is arguably the worst team in the league at the moment, or at least competing with Charlotte for the title. They are however the worst road team in the league, that much is undisputed. The whole coaching change/fresh start thing just doesn't apply here. This situation is filled with negativity, not a fresh start by any means. The Suns roster is the most lacking in talent in the whole league, there best players are Dudley, Brown, Dragic and Gortat. I do like Dragic and Gortat but neither is playing at the same level this year as they were last. Nash's departure should have at least helped Dragic even it has hindered Gortat, but no one on this team is playing at a high level, perhaps Brown is the only shining light, and Dudley when his jumper is on (not consistent enough).

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns...nclick_check=1

Want to know what the attitude is amongst Suns fans right now? Read the comments in above article and tell me that Phoenix is going into Sacramento tomorrow and taking that game...? This is not a fresh start and renewed hope (unlike the Nets and Lakers), this is a team in crisis mode. Gentry was very very popular in Phoenix, both with fans, players and coaches. Who the fukc is Lindsey Hunter? Thunder Dan quit in disgust, no Turner at practice eaither. Don't be fooled by the media hype. So Hunter's solution to Phoenix's troubles is more Luis Scola? 2 x longer, more competitive practices and they are suddenly a defensive team? Please? Sac-town destroys this team tomorrow...

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns...till-away.html



Denver @ Houston
Rockets -2 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 2.5x

Indiana @ Portland
Pacers m/l (+113, $2.13 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Indiana @ Portland
Under 183.5 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 1x

Atlanta @ Charlotte
Bobcats +3 (-106, $1.94 Pinnacle) 1x
Bobcats m/l (+127, $2.27 Pinnacle) 0.5x

OKC @ GS
Thunder -1.5 (-106, $1.94 Pinnacle) 1x

Toronto @ Miami
Under 196 (-109, $1.91 Pinnacle) 1x

LA Lakers @ Memphis
Grizzlies -4 (-103, $1.97 Pinnacle) 1x

NO @ SA
Hornets +8.5 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Hornets m/l (+361, $4.61 Pinnacle) 0.5x

[dmitean]

I have a golden rule. Never to bet against a team that just changed their coach (first 2 - 3 games).
It's either taking the team with the new coach or nothing.
New coach, new energy and so on.
So far this season, teams with the new coach are 2 - 0 SU and ATS in their first game.
I would take Suns SU maybe as a back up play for the ATS, but that's just me.

[sando]

I have a golden rule. Never to bet against a team that just changed their coach (first 2 - 3 games).
It's either taking the team with the new coach or nothing.
New coach, new energy and so on.
So far this season, teams with the new coach are 2 - 0 SU and ATS in their first game.
I would take Suns SU maybe as a back up play for the ATS, but that's just me.

Actually it's 3-0 both SU and ATS, but who's counting...? (Lakers, Nets, Bucks)

Also, do you notice a difference between the above 3 teams and the Suns? You still need the talent to be able to deliver on the "breath of fresh air, renewed confidence, fresh start, blah, blah, blah" that a coaching change brings.

I appreciate your insight mate, don't get me wrong, however I am well aware of the Suns coaching change and I have analysed it, digested it and summarily dismissed it. Notice the line is shorter than perhaps it should be (Kings -4 to -5 IMO). I'd say Vegas and there mates have factored the coaching change into their lines.

[dmitean]

It's your money mate! All I can say is good luck!

Also, Suns should be good for some Under results now. Hunter wants to make them really defense focused team and his trainings so far were to imrpove their defense.

[sando]

Adding...

ITF Heilbronn (Germany)

Really nice little Indoor Hard tourney being played in Germany ATM with a whole bunch of big name second tier players (Gulbis, Karlovic, Becker, PH Mathieu, Rochus, Muller, etc)

Marchenko v Phau
Marchenko m/l (-112, $1.89 Sportsbet) 1x Easy Winner - 6-3 3-0 ...... Retirement

Karlovic v Dancevic
Over 22.5 (-125, $1.80 Bet 365) 1x - Easy Winner - 7-6 5-7 ...... Retirement

Becker v Sergeyev
Becker 2-0 (-138, $1.72 Bet 365) 1x - Cash It

Pretty much done with tennis for now. ready to fukcing explode. Time to take a break.

[davopnz]

That's old school Tsonga...good to see

[JM92]

Check that Adrian what's his name on twitter to see what he mentioned about the Suns locker room... also there was a good thread here about the problems they have. I dont care they have a coaching change Im going in all the way on this one too even if I think Sando overrated Thomas eheh.

[Lakey]

Don't most books pay out on the over if it's already hit before a retirement? Very stiff there Sando.

[AndrewMcCutchen]

Posted on a separate thread. Great calls last night in the NBA. I'm with ya on the Kings tonight, they should win easily.


El Nino


Become A Pro!Join Date: 05-03-12
Posts: 1,776
SBR Points: 24

Message Me

Fade the Suns

The Phoenix Suns are an absolute dumpster fire right now. Not sure how much national press this will get, but the organization is a mess. Gentry fired and replaced by a guy who has never coached before. A guy with major character issues who is not well liked among the players. Guy used PED's as a player and is currently being investigated by the FBI for mortgage fraud. Jermaine O'Neal won't be going on this road trip because he got into a blistering, expletive filled tirade with the GM in front of other players. "Thunder" Dan Majerle, a local legend, quit coaching due to this. He wants no part of the organization anymore.

Just passing along some local info. Bet accordingly.

[dmitean]

I guess we on opposite sides in many games today, though not sure what I will play in the end myself.

Portland are bleeding right now and this a very good team that won Miami and almost won Thunder as well. At some point the bleeding would stop. Can't say that I'm ready to bet on them tonight, but it's very tempting. I believe that Memphis lost the last game and not that Indiana won it. Memphis played like garbage and Indiana played bad, just not that bad.

As for the Thunder, not taking GSW, but I if I had to, I wouldn't bet on Durant and Westbrook that been playing so many minutes. Fourth game in 6 days, two OT's, coming B2B after huge win.
KD averaged 46 minutes in the previous three games and Westbrook not far behind him.
In the minutes they out, all hell breaks loose. Clippers made a run each time they were out and Brooks had to call timeout and bring them back. Durant is on another planet as far as form goes right now. I can't remember anyone besides Kobe that much focused on getting them points as KD right now, but even he is still human.
GSW is very annoying team. Run, shoot three pointers and no lead is safe with them.
Wouldn't bet against the Thunder right now, but a terrible spot to back them as well.
Hope I'm wrong and you nail it.

Took Under in SacTown (split between overall and TT Kings Under) so far.

Good luck!

[JM92]

Yeah that was precisely what I meant. Also like Indy and the under on the other game Sando. Would like to know why you bet Houston that big though? I'm more inclined towards the Over.

[kenz]

Just bought $200 Murray ML @ 1.70 against Federer tomorrow

It is @1.57 on bet365 right now. Murray is in better shape, I expect a win from him

[sando]

Posted on a separate thread. Great calls last night in the NBA. I'm with ya on the Kings tonight, they should win easily.


El Nino


Become A Pro!Join Date: 05-03-12
Posts: 1,776
SBR Points: 24

Message Me

Fade the Suns

The Phoenix Suns are an absolute dumpster fire right now. Not sure how much national press this will get, but the organization is a mess. Gentry fired and replaced by a guy who has never coached before. A guy with major character issues who is not well liked among the players. Guy used PED's as a player and is currently being investigated by the FBI for mortgage fraud. Jermaine O'Neal won't be going on this road trip because he got into a blistering, expletive filled tirade with the GM in front of other players. "Thunder" Dan Majerle, a local legend, quit coaching due to this. He wants no part of the organization anymore.

Just passing along some local info. Bet accordingly.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/20130122phoenix-suns-lindsey-hunter-hire-public-relations-disaster.html?nclick_check=1

Want to know what the attitude is amongst Suns fans right now? Read the comments in above article and tell me that Phoenix is going into Sacramento tomorrow and taking that game...? This is not a fresh start and renewed hope (unlike the Nets and Lakers), this is a team in crisis mode. Thunder Dan quit in disgust, don't be fooled by the media hype. So Hunter's solution to Phoenix's troubles is more Luis Scola? 2 x longer, more competitive practices and they are suddenly a defensive team? Please? Sac-town destroys this team tomorrow...

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/20130122dan-majerle-exits-phoenix-suns-elston-turner-still-away.html

[MARCUS]

Actually it's 3-0 both SU and ATS, but who's counting...? (Lakers, Nets, Bucks)

Also, do you notice a difference between the above 3 teams and the Suns? You still need the talent to be able to deliver on the "breath of fresh air, renewed confidence, fresh start, blah, blah, blah" that a coaching change brings.

I appreciate your insight mate, don't get me wrong, however I am well aware of the Suns coaching change and I have analysed it, digested it and summarily dismissed it. Notice the line is shorter than perhaps it should be (Kings -4 to -5 IMO). I'd say Vegas and there mates have factored the coaching change into their lines.

..mr. $ando..my'man,thank$.

[thewhiteguy]

Yay Sando thanks for the easy over winner!

[SlickRick1382]

Good Luck today although I'm inclined to go against your Kings pick.

[TwiZteD]

Might have to try your tips Sando