11/30
Pacers -1 (-109) - 1.5x
Pistons +11 (-105) - 1x
Pacers -1 (-109) - 1.5x
Pistons +11 (-105) - 1x
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Yeah Memphis coming off a blowout win and have to play the Spurs tomorrow night on the road. I think they will be happy to just get out of this one with a win and won't need to bring their A-game. Pistons are playing hard albeit at home for the most part. I set it at 8.5 so worth a play at 11. Also, I didn't really consider this in my capping but all this talk about the Spurs caring more about playing Memphis than the Heat might have the Grizzlies looking ahead more than they typically would be.Comment -
You raise some great points and I'm amazed at how many cappers ignore the psychological aspect of the NBA. Last night's Spurs game was a great example. The reserves played their tails off and the Heat just kind of coasted through the first 3.5 quarters. I think the Pistons @ Grizzlies will have a similar outcome.Comment -
12/1
Rockets -5 (-107) - 1.5x
Pistons +7.5 (-107) - 1xComment -
man pistons lose by 12 last night, brutal. you like them at 7.5 after back to back road games?Comment -
more of a fade of the Mavs... i don't think they should be laying more than 6 to pretty much anyone (outside of the Wiz)... the Pistons will find it much easier to score versus the Mavs than last night vs the Grizz... also not as worried about the b2b with Detroit because they have a pretty large rotation (11 guys averaging at least 12 minutes) although its still a negative factor. And yea what a brutal 3 by Conley with 4 seconds left with a 9pt lead to blow the cover lolComment -
Blazers/Cavs u195 (-105) - 1.5x
Grizz +6.5 (-108) - 1x
Rockets coming off rest and a blowout loss. Harden should be motivated to bounce back after a poor performance versus OKC. Utah played last night and has severe road/home dichotomy (3-8 away, 6-0 home). I'll roll with the Rockets -5 here for 1.5x, would prob only do 1x at the current number of -6 seeing as I set this at just Hou -6.5
We have a matchup of two jumpshooting teams with Portland and Cleveland with both teams on a back-to-back. Yea Cleveland has been shooting well but I don't expect that to continue to the same degree with no rest. I think they've overachieved a bit with Irving out. Portland is a bad road team with no depth and Batum is struggling right now which they cannot afford. I am fading the line move here but 195 seems too high for this game, I set it at 190.5 so 1.5x sounds good for the under.
I don't see why the line is so high for Mem/SAS. Is Tony Allen worth points? Memphis didn't have to play that hard last night and I think people are overrating the effect the extra rest will have for the Spurs players by sitting out the Miami game. I think under normal circumstances this game would be lined around 4 and with the added rest and Tony Allen injury it should be around 5 so I'll take Mem +6.5 for 1x.
Already talked about the Pistons a bit in an above post.Comment -
3rd time already that OT blows the under for me... Pistons died mid-way through the 3rd - guess the b2b mattered lolLast edited by celtics3388; 12-02-12, 09:50 AM.Comment -
should be 5-1 in the last 6 but fluky shit keeps me at 3-3.. gonna take the NBA off todayComment -
12/3
Cavs +5 (-105) - 1x
Blazers ml (-105) - 1x
Raptors/Nuggets o201 (-101) - 1.5x
May be missing something here with the Cavs line but i don't see why the Pistons are laying 5 in this spot. Both teams are off comparable rest (yea Cle just played double OT but they had a day off and only had to travel from Cle to Det... they have also played less games in the last 5 days than Det) I see Waiters is questionable for this game but I don't think there is much drop-off much between him and Gibson anyways (at least for one game, looks like there is decent chance he goes anyways). Don't see why this one doesn't go down to wire.
Scary as hell backing the Blazers on the road right now but they are the more talented team and will be playing hard given their recent struggles. I only like backing the Bobcats when teams take them lightly and Portland really needs a couple of cheap wins so I think they bring it tonight. Don't feel great about this one tbh but I set it at Cha +2.5 so I'll roll with the Blazers for 1x as I think they execute better down the stretch than the Bobcats.
The Nugs have been playing better offensively after a sluggish start to the year. The Raptors want to be more of a defensive team but really can't with guys like Derozen and Bargnani playing big minutes. Also the Nugs can swallow up teams that don't have good guard play but I think the Raps should be ok with Lowry and Calderon handling the point. They should be able to take advantage when the Dnever defenders gamble on the ball. I don't see any injuries so I think the only way this doesn't cash is if the Raptors have one of those terrible shooting performances where Bargs and Derozen should like 25% each. Set this at 205.5 so I'll play the over for 1.5xComment -
Updated Record:
57-53, +9.84 unitsComment -
Looking ahead to Wednesday I'm thinking the Magic come down from their high against the Jazz in Utah. As of now I plan on making that a multi-unit play if the spread is less than double digits.Comment -
that was a woeful day for you wasn't it?Comment -
not liking today's card, was looking forward to the Ind/Chi under but way too obvious as it's all the way down at 180 so no thanks. If there is a high scoring 1H then I'll prob come in for the 2H underComment -
12/4
Thunder -4 (-108) - 1x
Think BK will struggle to score without Lopez. Lopez was the guy offensively for this team with Deron Williams putting up career low shooting numbers and Joe Johnson still getting adjusted. Also, after taking some time to gel, the Thunder have been on a tear as of late scoring at least 100 in their last 8 ball-games. I'm not going to be the one to step in front of that with a depleted BK team who is also going to be without Reggie Evans.Comment -
12/5
Blazers/Pacers u185.5 (-103) - 1xComment -
Nuggets/Hawks o199.5 (-105) - 1.5x
Jazz -8 (-107) - 1x
The Pacers are the 30th ranked scoring offense and the 1st ranked scoring defense in the NBA. Roy Hibbert has made up for his offensive struggles (39% FG for a 7'2" player??) with impressive defense (8.4 Reb and 3.1 Blocks compared to 8.8 and 2.0 last year). It's obvious they lack continuity on offense with Granger out but Vogel has had them making up for it on the defensive end all season. On the other side (I feel like I've made this point a million times) the Blazers are a jump-shooting team with no bench scoring. They are also on the road coming off of back-to-back overtime games. It's very important to have fresh legs when relying on the outside shot and the Blazers big guns have played a ton of minutes and they have no one else to spell them. Only thing that concerns me is of course the Portland defense but I'll take my chances with Indy the offense especially coming off a b2b. Wish I waited and got 186.5 but I thought it would continue down so I rolled with the under 185.5 for 1x.
The Hawks tend to play to their competition's level and playing style. Denver loves to get up and down and I expect Atlanta to comply. Atlanta is off of an extended break (4 or 5 days) so I expect a few extra shots to fall late in the game that normally might miss. Denver seems to be on track offensively after struggling to gel at the beginning of the year - they have posted 100+ points in 7 consecutive games. Should be a good game. I have this set at 202 so I rolled with the over for 1.5x
Talked about Utah a bit already but I love the spot for them tonight, and it looks like I am paying a bit of a tax because the spot is so good. 8 points seems like too much for this game especially since Utah will be without the services of Favors and Marvin Williams. But I think the Magic will come down to earth after playing way above their normal level the past two games. Many people thought they would let-down versus GSW, but the adrenaline from the night before carried them through. I think this is the spot where we see the usual Magic team we've been accustomed to for most of the year. Utah has one of the largest home court advantages in the NBA and are in the middle of a homestand where they lost the first game. I wanted to make this a big play but because of the injury situation and the expensive price tag I played it for only 1x.Comment -
12/6
Mavs +3.5 (-107) - 1x
Mavs ml (+145) - 0.5x
The Suns have no business laying 3.5 to a Rick Carlisle coached team. I was down on Dallas earlier in the year as I thought they were overvalued, but I think the market has not only caught up, but is now overcompensating. Yea Dallas is on a b2b blah blah but actually this is only their 3rd game in the past week and none last night's minutes were "hard minutes" with it being a blowout pretty much from start to finish. So I don't expect fatigue to play much of a role tonight. On the other hand PHX has played 5 times in the past week and it's their first game back from an extended 6-game road trip. Teams are generally less focused for that game since they are seeing family and friends for the first time in awhile (you know the wife or gf is having them do shit together after like 2 weeks away... it sounds stupid lol but has been a legit trend in the NBA where effort is optional). This is not the main reason for taking Dallas though - I think the two roster's are comparable and there is a huge coaching edge for Dallas. I like the fact that Dallas got blown out last night on national television and I think Carlisle has them playing hard tonight. I think this game is like 49/51 game and have PHX as a 1.5 pt fave, so I'll glady take the 3.5 and throw some on the +145 ml also.Comment -
LIVE: (end of 3Q)
Heat +3.5 (-110) - 1xComment -
12/7
Wiz/Hawks u192.5 (-105) - 1.5xComment -
trying to squeeze out a 2nd play here but not finding much I like... really thought I would play the T'Wolves tonight but apparently it is a really obvious play as the line is huge. Possibly the Bulls or Nets or over in the two 7:00 games...Comment -
Celtics -1.5 (-106) - 1x
I expect a very similar game to the Hawks home game versus Charlotte last week. Just ugly basketball all over the place - a terrible game to watch. For years Atlanta has been a team that brings it versus the tougher competition and just skates by with 80% effort in the games they should win. I don't expect them to be forcing the action, but instead settling for jumpshots and iso plays for at least the early going here. Washington will play hard but again, they are just not a talented offensive team at this point and can go without scoring for long period of times. I think this total may be a little high because of Washington's offensive output against Miami and Atlanta getting up and down in their last two games, but that is not the traditional styles for these two teams. I set this at 188.5 and I was able to get 192.5 around noon, so I played the under for 1x. I'd still play it at the current number as I'm actually kicking myself for not going 1.5x at 192.5
Philly is just not a deep team at all - their bench consists of only Dorell Wright and Spencer Hawes. The Celtics weakness is interior defense and yea Philly has some decent pieces with Lavoy Allen, Thad Young, and Hawes but those guys aren't really game changers. On the other hand the Celtics go about 9 deep in addition to their advantages in the starting lineup. Basically the Celtics are the far superior team this year and would be like 4 point faves if this was a playoff game but per usual it comes down to effort with them. They have only played twice over the past week so I'll think they'll be ready for this one. Also I think they are finally starting to care about getting some wins and are starting to learn how to play together with all the new pieces. I set this at just -2 so I might be reaching a bit here but not much else I like tonight so I played the Celtics -1.5 for 1x.Comment -
T'Wolves -8.5 (-108) - 1x
Can't resist. T'Wolves coming off a loss against a depleted Cavs team playing on the road. Pekovic and Love should be able to contain Varejao and Cavs don't have much else going for them. Looks like Kirilenko is a go and Love is getting healthier by the day. There's a reason why this line is so high and I expect a double digit win for the T'Wolves. I set this at -9 so again not a ton of value but I'm still rolling with it for 1x.Comment -
Warriors/Nets 2H u98 (-103) - 1xComment -
12/8
Warriors/Wiz o197 (-105) - 1.5xComment -
is this over gonna hit in gs/wa ?? are you better at o/u or sides?Comment -
Kings/Blazers o197 (-105) - 1xComment -
looks like this one is gonna miss unless we get some late-game fouling... i dont record keep between sides and totals but off the top of my head I'd say probably a bit better on sides although my 2nd half totals have been money this year. Here's my season long spreadsheet if you want a look for yourself:Comment -
12/9
Nuggets +5 (-105) - 2xComment
