[Love The Action]

I had some extra time, so I thought I would throw out my early plays for tomorrow. I meant to put April 5th as the subject, but I can't seem to change the header. I have not yet capped the games with no published lines, so I may add plays tomorrow if I have time to post while I'm at work. Please let me know your thoughts and good luck to all!

1) OKC/Denver Under (207) 4x - This game opened up at 207.5 and dropped very quickly despite 90 percent of all bets on the over. Previous matchups closed at a total of 221.5 and 213.5. Therefore, it's pretty telling that this total opened up so low and dropped even lower. Both teams have made a commitment to defense over the last 10 games or so in preparation of the playoffs, and I believe we will see more of the same in this game. Additionally, all recent trends for both teams point to the under. Depending on the refs assigned to this game, I may increase this play from a 4 unit play to 5 or more units. I really see this game ending in the high 190's, but not tipping over 200 (similar to the recent Lakers/Denver game on Sunday).

2) Mil/Orlando Under (180.5 or higher) 2.5x - I really like this game to stay under the total, which may continue to rise with 80% of all bets on the over (which is why I have not locked it in yet). Both of these team have been under machines all year long, especially Milwaukee. All trends for both teams, recent or otherwise, point to the under. Just to point out a few: (1) the Bucks are 20-13 favoring the under against winning teams, while the Magic are 24-13 favoring the under against losing teams; (2) on two days of rest, Milwaukee played to the under 13 out of 16 games, while the Magic have played to the under 25 out of 44 games on one day of rest. I can list many more trends which provide a clear under lean. Finally, I think Skiles will keep Milwaukee fighting for a playoff spot and playing strong defense all the way to the end. Based on the foregoing, I like this game to stay under the posted total.

3) Sac/Hou Over (220 or lower) 1.5x - Currently, 90% of the bets are coming in on the under, probably scared off by the high number, and the total may drop a few points before tip. This high number doesn't scare me though. This game should be very fast paced and high scoring. In addition to the game total, you may also want to put a play on the 1H over as well. Once again, both these teams' trends matchup for the over very heavily. Even though Sacramento has played to three straight unders, they continue to play a fast paced game and I definitely see that continuing against Houston. Although Houston is a playoff contender, neither team is particularly interested in playing defense. With both these teams at the top of the league in possessions per game, look for this game to hit 225 points or more.

4) LAC/Mem Under (199 or more) 1x - Both of their previous matchups stayed under the total and I like that trend to continue here. Both teams have played to the under recently (Clips 3 straight unders and 7-3 of last 10 games; Memphis 2 straight unders and 6-4 of last 10 games). Although I have this game capped at around 197, I still think that provides enough value to jump on this game under play. Memphis should come out ready to defend on 2 days rest and fighting for the playoffs and I like the fourth quarter to be around 40 points as Memphis nurses a late lead. An interesting play might be to take the first quarter over and under for the game as I see this getting out to a quick scoring start, but winding down as Memphis clamps down on defense in the 2H.

5) Memphis (-9) 1.5x - Memphis crushed the Clip joint last time these two teams played and the books added 4 points to the line as compensation. It's clear the books are expecting a blowout here and I would agree as Memphis uses its defense to win this one pretty easily (104-90 or so for the final score).

With the huge cards in the NBA and MLB, I'm going to have heavy action and I know you will too. Good luck and let's put a hurting on the books!

[politicin]

Wish you had enough time to check the calendar.

[Love The Action]

Wish you had enough time to check the calendar.

Lol, they won't let me change the subject to April 5th and I previously wrote the 6th on accident. Sorry for any confusion.

[Avenger]

I'm not touching any under/overs in NBA because of last week. Not doing any under/overs till playoffs or until NBA shows more credibility. Just saying... take it or leave it.

If I was going to do under/over, I'd jump all over the Magic/Bucks under, And I'm all over the Grizz (even have a post for it)!

My only concern is the line is too good, if you know what I mean.

[dude_bg]

if orlando players are allowed to rest, this can lead to under but let's see the news coming first

[betforbread]

Look like a winning card to me.

[Love The Action]

Very worried about the late money coming in the OKC/Den over. This does not bode well for my under play in that game. Nevertheless, I still like this game to go under, but will not add any units. I'm looking ok on the other games as of now, so hopefully we can cash more tickets than we lose. Good luck to everyone tonight!

[kts]

lakers-jazz under 193

[Love The Action]

I had some extra time, so I thought I would throw out my early plays for tomorrow. I meant to put April 5th as the subject, but I can't seem to change the header. I have not yet capped the games with no published lines, so I may add plays tomorrow if I have time to post while I'm at work. Please let me know your thoughts and good luck to all!

1) OKC/Denver Under (207) 4x - This game opened up at 207.5 and dropped very quickly despite 90 percent of all bets on the over. Previous matchups closed at a total of 221.5 and 213.5. Therefore, it's pretty telling that this total opened up so low and dropped even lower. Both teams have made a commitment to defense over the last 10 games or so in preparation of the playoffs, and I believe we will see more of the same in this game. Additionally, all recent trends for both teams point to the under. Depending on the refs assigned to this game, I may increase this play from a 4 unit play to 5 or more units. I really see this game ending in the high 190's, but not tipping over 200 (similar to the recent Lakers/Denver game on Sunday). WINNER

2) Mil/Orlando Under (180.5 or higher) 2.5x - I really like this game to stay under the total, which may continue to rise with 80% of all bets on the over (which is why I have not locked it in yet). Both of these team have been under machines all year long, especially Milwaukee. All trends for both teams, recent or otherwise, point to the under. Just to point out a few: (1) the Bucks are 20-13 favoring the under against winning teams, while the Magic are 24-13 favoring the under against losing teams; (2) on two days of rest, Milwaukee played to the under 13 out of 16 games, while the Magic have played to the under 25 out of 44 games on one day of rest. I can list many more trends which provide a clear under lean. Finally, I think Skiles will keep Milwaukee fighting for a playoff spot and playing strong defense all the way to the end. Based on the foregoing, I like this game to stay under the posted total. WINNER

3) Sac/Hou Over (220 or lower) 1.5x - Currently, 90% of the bets are coming in on the under, probably scared off by the high number, and the total may drop a few points before tip. This high number doesn't scare me though. This game should be very fast paced and high scoring. In addition to the game total, you may also want to put a play on the 1H over as well. Once again, both these teams' trends matchup for the over very heavily. Even though Sacramento has played to three straight unders, they continue to play a fast paced game and I definitely see that continuing against Houston. Although Houston is a playoff contender, neither team is particularly interested in playing defense. With both these teams at the top of the league in possessions per game, look for this game to hit 225 points or more. LOSS

4) LAC/Mem Under (199 or more) 1x - Both of their previous matchups stayed under the total and I like that trend to continue here. Both teams have played to the under recently (Clips 3 straight unders and 7-3 of last 10 games; Memphis 2 straight unders and 6-4 of last 10 games). Although I have this game capped at around 197, I still think that provides enough value to jump on this game under play. Memphis should come out ready to defend on 2 days rest and fighting for the playoffs and I like the fourth quarter to be around 40 points as Memphis nurses a late lead. An interesting play might be to take the first quarter over and under for the game as I see this getting out to a quick scoring start, but winding down as Memphis clamps down on defense in the 2H. WINNER

5) Memphis (-9) 1.5x - Memphis crushed the Clip joint last time these two teams played and the books added 4 points to the line as compensation. It's clear the books are expecting a blowout here and I would agree as Memphis uses its defense to win this one pretty easily (104-90 or so for the final score). LOSS

With the huge cards in the NBA and MLB, I'm going to have heavy action and I know you will too. Good luck and let's put a hurting on the books!

In addition to those early plays, I also played NY/Tor over 221.5 1.5.x (WINNER) and the Spurs (-1.5)1Q 1x (tailing BL on this one) (LOSS).

In baseball, I played the Angels/Rays under (-110) 1x (LOSS BY ONE RUN) and Milwaukee 1x (-110) (WINNER BY ONE RUN).

All in all, not a bad night 5-4 up a little over 6 units. Good luck with the rest of everyone's plays. Need to go cap tomorrow's games before bed.

[tom1234]

Thanks for posting your plays Love The Action , are you gonna post all your plays in this thread?